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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, weathafella said:

CMC improved vs 12z but work needs to be done.  Let's see if Euro can do what it usually does and hold run after run.

Still too early for me to expect consistency in any detail, even from Euro...a graze is the same as a hit to me at this point.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right... all these features can look great and all, but if it doesn't produce, nobody will remember that. All anyone cares about is the end result.... and that was much worse this run and it's not really debatable 

Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range.

I'd also argue that even the PV phasing doesn't matter THAT much...this was still a very good look synoptically in the upper levels....that would be a classic "take GFS QPF and shift it 50-100 miles west and increase it by 50%" type coastal.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still too early for me to expect consistency in any detail, even from Euro...a graze is the same as a hit to me at this point.

I disagree. The evolution of h5 throughout today's guidance has been inconsistent (i.e.: broad neutral trough to high amplitude negative trough). There were substantial differences between 18z and 00z h5 trough orientations. QPF had been consistently high but for different reasons/outcomes. I am starting to suspect that system #2 could be stronger than progged, leading to a fish/cape only event. 

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1 minute ago, Enigma said:

I disagree. The evolution of h5 throughout today's guidance has been inconsistent (i.e.: broad neutral trough to high amplitude negative trough). There were substantial differences between 18z and 00z h5 trough orientations. QPF had been consistently high but for different reasons/outcomes. I am starting to suspect that system #2 could be stronger than progged, leading to a fish/cape only event. 

So you say this, and then disagree with me that it's too early to expect consistency?

 

:huh:

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range.

yea, my point. But The issue is he looks at where the blue is on map and judges it based off that. Anyone not blind can see that. but you look at h5 thru 96 and it screamed a big hit again. Didnt see the less pv lobe interaction though. 

Regardless, its a plausible solution how a mucked up phase occurs. It will change at 6z. 

The 18z gefs being se of 12z with more spread as I noted earlier though, hopefully that wasnt a caution tape wrapped around the gift box. 

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