tamarack Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Love Tip's "unmanned firehose" illustration, as the run-to-run variability out past day 5 has been even wilder than usual. Liked the 06 gfs for late week, not for my area (looks like a whiff) but for the snow-loving grandkids in SNJ, where the verbatim outcome would be a foot or more. Odds of that happening are mighty low, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The tale of this season: Winter delayed, but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Not many amped up solutions in the ensembles. The GFS solutions bring in winter towards the end of the week and it stays for about three chances of snowfall. They are all over the place for the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The 12z gfs has a bit of a suppressed look to it. Just one of many options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 12z GFS south on both Friday and Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 supression depression, but I'm not sold it ends up that far south. 1 - it does not snow in Richmond in March 2 - it does not snow more than a foot in Rochmond in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Suppression doesn't typically happen in Morch.. not with SE ridge.. this one is coming Sunday. I'd bet it gets some snow at least into NNE but they may not jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'll take the GFS look this far out. Given propensity for heights to be higher down there, I don't mind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I like where we are now with this system, especially with the propensity for systems to migrate northward with time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I like where we are now with this system, especially with the propensity for systems to migrate northward with time this season. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Suppression doesn't typically happen in Morch.. not with SE ridge.. this one is coming Sunday. I'd bet it gets some snow at least into NNE but they may not jack 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the GFS look this far out. Given propensity for heights to be higher down there, I don't mind it. Its a different pattern with that block we have not seen this winter, just sayin, don't discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its a different pattern with that block we have not seen this winter, just sayin, don't discount it. It's Morch.. the blocking is elongated and there's the ever present SE ridge. It's discounted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Of course you don't discount it...I just said I'd take the overall look this far out. Who wants to jackpot a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It's Morch.. the blocking is elongated and there's the ever present SE ridge. It's discounted . I am not saying its a lock and basically you don't know either so although you are trying hard to, its not entirely unusual for there to be snow in the Mid Atlantic in March, just look at 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Of course you don't discount it...I just said I'd take the overall look this far out. Who wants to jackpot a week out. you are more reasonable to understand how it could happen that way. Lots of players and a couple of days to shake it out. I wouldn't discount a thing like some others do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Canadian says mega meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Suppression is definitely a possibility Look at March 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Canadian says mega meh Thank god we are 5 days away but the block means business. Hopefully the pv backs off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 UK looks like the GFS for the Friday wave. Has the low over the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you are more reasonable to understand how it could happen that way. Lots of players and a couple of days to shake it out. I wouldn't discount a thing like some others do. Why are you even conjecturing ? You're waiting till Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Suppression is definitely a possibility Look at March 2014 No it's not. Check 2014 and see if there was an Omni present SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'd sell on the Friday event. Still time but the trends have been moving south with each model run. Weekend still undecided. St. Patrick's day period looks intriguing as the block weakens a bit to allow a more up the coast storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Canadian says mega meh That's a big plus for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it's not. Check 2014 and see if there was an Omni present SE ridge Kevin, it's an option. Your speaking as if it can't happen and the SE ridge is the only player. It's important, but so is the role of s/w intricacies in the flow and also over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I find that Canadian is too suppressed in the medium range as a general rule. Just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are you even conjecturing ? You're waiting till Wednesday Reading comprehension FTL Lots of players and a couple of days to shake it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course you don't discount it...I just said I'd take the overall look this far out. Who wants to jackpot a week out. lol I told myself that same thing yesterday and now it's further south. So you guys should be in the sweet spot with it to your south now. Great set up for the mid-Atlantic as modeled. Then we warm and mix to rain day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin, it's an option. Your speaking as if it can't happen and the SE ridge is the only player. It's important, but so is the role of s/w intricacies in the flow and also over Quebec. But isn't the block elongated and not West based? I thought that also favored non - suppression . Just seems there's a lot going against a D.C. Event while Philly north sees cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you are more reasonable to understand how it could happen that way. Lots of players and a couple of days to shake it out. I wouldn't discount a thing like some others do. I agree with you that the suppression might be very real until the Day 8-10 range when the GFS/ECM have the SE ridge amp back up and might throw a cutter. Its very possible that there's a 5-day period of compression over NNE that pushes everything out and under the northeast before it relaxes. That cold looks to mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I agree with you that the suppression might be very real until the Day 8-10 range when the GFS/ECM have the SE ridge amp back up and might throw a cutter. Its very possible that there's a 5-day period of compression over NNE that pushes everything out and under the northeast before it relaxes. That cold looks to mean business. I don't see any warming in your future, in fact you probably are going to get hammered over the next 20 dyas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Canadian says mega meh So are you saying the 18-24" it showed imby 12h ago ain't happening? Well golly gee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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