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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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Storms and rumors of storms.  Just get us the cold is and was our mantra. Remember all the cold and dry Nellie's.  Since this is the model thread not a storm thread. Support for another large impact snowstorm grew overnight in the 18th 20th range. It's not over even then with ENS reinforced cold. 

gefs_t2anom_16_noram_1.png

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Another great eps and gefs showing in general.  Theres quite a few huggies on the gefs too, cant see eps. But the stalled out long duration type sceanario is losing some steam. inside 96hrs now with the initial interaction of sw's, today is kind of a big day to sniff out any clues....or glues, if thats your preference. I dont judge.

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They're important though. Basically is this all srn stream or does it phase. 

Not disagreeing--still plenty of time--but as a forecaster I'll shave a day or two from the final solution to gain model accuracy and extrapolate myself based on a day 3 or day 4 look. You have to love consensus on guidance, particularly on the ensembles at under 96 hrs. Details regarding phasing are still unclear--no doubt-- but you can see the GFS is having difficulty resolving the complexity with the SLP jumping around like that. To my eye the 6z GFS should have taken the SLP much closer to the BM.

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Storms and rumors of storms.  Just get us the cold is and was our mantra. Remember all the cold and dry Nellie's.  Since this is the model thread not a storm thread. Support for another large impact snowstorm grew overnight in the 18th 20th range. It's not over even then with ENS reinforced cold. 

gefs_t2anom_16_noram_1.png

I like the way you tease me with your panels.  
:shiver:

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Playing catchup. Interesting to see Euro favor the southern stream. Jesus, James will be at full staff today after that run. He may need to see his doctor. Looks like 6z GFS a hair less tucked than last night, but congrats Pfreak on that one. Still have a hunch this ends up close to Jan '11 and we see it go over Ack. 

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Who's your guy? Congrats!

My :weenie:.  Obviously confidence of a storm is extremely high right now.  Pretty remarkable how consistent the models have been for the last few days.  It can happen though with a stable pattern with the flow buckled.  I'm waiting till Saturday to see which way my thoughts will go (wet or white)

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Good am, regarding Tuesday event...is this going to be "one low" or will this be merging with another? Either way, slow event or quick mover if that can be answered? ty

no offense man, but read the thread.

Plus, it is still 4 days out, so no one knows anything for certain

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Is the board still acting weird for people?  (Can't click the notification box and no user name in quote box?)

Speculation. But given the potential HECS on guidance, administrators may have put the forum into a quasi-storm mode to prevent a shutdown of the site due to an influx of site traffic.

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