Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Again that means nothing. Surface features are governed by mid and upper level features. If those change, so does HP. What it good, is that the antecedent airmass is about as good as it gets. It means a lot actually. You ain't jamming a low up the HRV with a beast mode high there. Doesn't work that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With that arctic HP where it is..it's not cutting west lol All that means is that we'd salvage a hellacious front end dump in the worst case scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agreed....I'd like to see the digging trend cease. This GFS run was great, but leave it there. Anyone have the 18z 10:1 map? Enough with the glue sniffing Kuchie kids... No reason to go for a Margarita this time around......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It means a lot actually. You ain't jamming a low up the HRV with a beast mode high there. Doesn't work that way Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All that means is that we'd salvage a hellacious front end dump in the worst case scenario... That's a good guess actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Is NCEP's site down ... 18z is hung at 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Hot damn the Kuchera crack from PivotalWeather: 1' DC and BOS, 2' PHL-NYC-ORH-BDL-PWM and back to ALB, 3' along much of this line, 56" for MWN. Only SEMA weenies would be complaining, really. Shift that about 20 miles east, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Enough with that idiotic tool.....just take 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is NCEP's site down ... 18z is hung at 102 hours. It must be, The 18z run is done on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Enough with that idiotic tool.....just take 10:1. That foolish algorithm was like crack to weenies this year. It's seems like every year, weenies grasp on to the latest and sexiest weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That foolish algorithm was like crack to weenies this year. It's seems like every year, weenies grasp on to the latest and sexiest weenie maps. I rather just look at the total qpf and use climo for the different types of storms, Always has worked and you can get real close to the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: I rather just look at the total qpf and use climo for the different types of storms, Always has worked and you can get real close to the results. 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That foolish algorithm was like crack to weenies this year. It's seems like every year, weenies grasp on to the latest and sexiest weenie maps. 14-24" verifies my winter outlook imby....I will probably be too low along the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I rather just look at the total qpf and use climo for the different types of storms, Always has worked and you can get real close to the results. Right. Or, what you could do if your met savvy enough, is the go 10:1 and adjust on account for mid level features, DGZ etc. I normally use QPF, mid level features, and soundings to determine how much snow. Oochie Coochie looks at temps in the column, but does not look at lift or saturation. At least as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 14-24" verifies my winter outlook imby....probably gonna be low along the coast.... If I pull off 60"....I'll smoke a cigarette come April and call it a season. My guess is we may not be done after next week though. Long range looks like there is some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: If I pull off 60"....I'll smoke a cigarette come April and call it a season. My guess is we may not be done after next week though. Long range looks like there is some potential. My outlook was really good, except for the fact that I should have switched January and February....thought January would be very good, February suck. I pegged March for good snow and NAO assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. Or, what you could do if your met savvy enough, is the go 10:1 and adjust on account for mid level features, DGZ etc. I normally use QPF, mid level features, and soundings to determine how much snow. Oochie Coochie looks at temps in the column, but does not look at lift or saturation. At least as far as I know. Exactly, 10:1 is a good starting point, Being on the coastal plain in alot of the mash potato/cement type storms, I find more times then not in the 7-10:1 range and the ones on the colder side with great mid level tracks in the 12-15:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like weenies panicking already. Reminds me of my chickens pecking eachother before bed for prime roosting positioning. Unfortunately for James, he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Big beak, but not much bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Reminds me of my chickens pecking eachother before bed for prime roosting positioning. Unfortunately for James, he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Big beak, but not much bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Reminds me of my chickens pecking eachother before bed for prime roosting positioning. Unfortunately for James, he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Big beak, but not much bite. Somebody has to take it on the chin for the rest to reap the rewards in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Somebody has to take it on the chin for the rest to reap the rewards in most cases. Take your rain, and 5 PPD and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Enough with that idiotic tool.....just take 10:1. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Amen. Maybe aside from the thin sliver of H7 deformation out west....but 10:1 works more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take your rain, and 5 PPD and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Reminds me of my chickens pecking eachother before bed for prime roosting positioning. Unfortunately for James, he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Big beak, but not much bite. double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like weenies panicking already. As someone said on the NYC thread after seeing the 18z GFS, just remember Seattle was on the 1 yard line and threw an INT. to lose the Super Bowl. We aren't on the 1 yard line yet, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe aside from the thin sliver of H7 deformation out west....but 10:1 works more often than not. Its just a much better starting point... I'd rather start with 10:1 and make my own changes to the ratios than let the model do it for me based on temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: As someone said on the NYC thread after seeing the 18z GFS, just remember Seattle was on the 1 yard line and threw an INT. to lose the Super Bowl. We aren't on the 1 yard line yet, but just saying. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Reminds me of my chickens pecking eachother before bed for prime roosting positioning. Unfortunately for James, he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Big beak, but not much bite. The gulf stream may not be his friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The gulf stream may not be his friend. No but it will be ours............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Not sure if it was mentioned but the gefs h5 mean looks practically dead on similar comparing 18z to 12z, pretty remarkable to see imo. Its not until you slide back to 6z where youcan see how the trough is less sharp and a more proggy. I think this is a good sign the holes have been dug up and the goalposts are being taken off the truck. I dont want to jinx it so I wont say it. A huggies left and just SE of BE right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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