JasonOH Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It really smells like smoke now after the cold frontal passage. It sounds like they are starting to get the fires under control now based on things I've seen on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Lone supercell north of Fort Smith starting to have a better presentation on radar. Rotation also improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Lone supercell north of Fort Smith starting to have a better presentation on radar. Rotation also improving. TOR warned again. The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Crawford County in northwestern Arkansas... Southeastern Washington County in northwestern Arkansas... * Until 1045 PM CST * At 1020 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 3 miles southwest of Devils Den State Park, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations in or near the path include... Elkins... West Fork... Winslow... Chester... Brentwood... Devils Den State Park... Strickler... Blackburn... Wyola... Sulphur City... Woolsey... Hicks... Arnett... Mount Gayler... Durham... Bidville... Locke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Yeah that storm south of Fayetteville is getting organized quick. 40/29 is back live http://www.4029tv.com/nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Is that a huge TDS forming or is that a low correlation for some other reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Rotation appears to be tightening up on the Winslow, AR supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Is that a huge TDS forming or is that a low correlation for some other reason? Appears to just be open air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: Is that a huge TDS forming or is that a low correlation for some other reason? If it's open air, the correlation coefficient is inconclusive, aka it means absolutely nothing when relating to debris. Has to correlate with reflectivity ~>50dBz, and the couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 They let the TW expire just as the rotation increased in that cell in AR Edit; they reissued it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nah, just issued a new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Upper Level LOL said: Nah, just issued a new one Yeah, it was just between warnings that there was nothing for a minute. That cell really went to town on the last couple of scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Seems to be having trouble establishing consistent inflow, but it definitely has significant tornado potential if it can really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Storm seems to be weakening. Hail core has decreased substantially. VIL is down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 25 reports of tornadoes on the SPC filtered reports section, a few of which appear to have possibly been fairly significant. Pretty impressive for a day that didn't receive much hype at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 There's also still severe thunderstorm warnings stretching nearly continuously from Wisconsin to Oklahoma and 4 tornado warnings currently in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 This may be producing a tornado now, even though it showed signs of weakening as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Continued strong rotation with this cell as it has moved several miles east of Weathers, AR. Also a new tornado-warned cell at Gainesville, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Really intense strong couplets and BWERs with the discrete activity ahead of the line. May have produced significant tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Likely two tornadoes in the ground to the south of the St. Louis metro. Looks very much like other signatures I've seen in the St. Louis area that have produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Trimble, Missouri has sustained what looks to be potentially high-end damage as a result of this event. Video shows an anchor-bolted home that was swept completely away, with what looks to be total collapse of the rebar reinforced concrete walk-out basement wall. The metal I-beam that supports the home over the basement has also been ripped loose, pulled out of the basement and bent. Brett Adair says he found sheared off anchor bolts at this location as well. Very curious to see what survey teams find here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Wow Holy s*** that's nuts. I'll look over it again for better details, but that's impressive damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Seems most of these end up mid range ef 3 now, but wouldn't be surprised if higher. Saddest part is that in regular news circles this is barely even talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I would say by looking at surrounding damage and the cars, that there may have been structural difficiencies in the house. Unless that open end of the concrete basement was collapsed, I could see that being the point that failed causing the house to be swept away. The car still parked there (garage under house?) sticks out, but since it was practically in a basement, I understand why it's not too ripped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Tough one for sure, I'd have to see more to make educated guess. Definitely a few ef2 or stronger I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Tough one for sure, I'd have to see more to make educated guess. Definitely a few ef2 or stronger I would say. I agree 100%. I would say EF3, but I don't like to make assumptions based on a short video. There is lots of evidence that can't be seen up close, like all the wood downstream that will hold clues to the failure. I can't wait for daylight pictures that are easier to analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Regrettably the bolded did not really work out. 22 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Agree ^ on the 10%. SPC may be hedging since the location of the boundary is in question... Chasers would also be happier with west-central MO thanks to roads/terrain and still well south of the KC metro sprawl. Friend in Oak Grove, MO had a tornado a block away. They heard the freight train. Oak Grove TOR was from the supercell that tracked from Shawnee Mission/Leawood, KS through Jackson County, MO. Same sup dropped golfballs on Shawnee Mission friends. North side supercell caused the Trimble area damage. KCMO Metro managed two totally separate damaging supercells. Thankfully no loss of life or serious injuries are reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Over 500 severe weather reports alone from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: Over 500 severe weather reports alone from yesterday. There was likely more tornadoes than are actually reported right now too. Especially in the Ozarks/Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, JasonOH said: I agree 100%. I would say EF3, but I don't like to make assumptions based on a short video. There is lots of evidence that can't be seen up close, like all the wood downstream that will hold clues to the failure. I can't wait for daylight pictures that are easier to analyze. One thing I noticed in this video is a lack of toe-nails sticking out of the base plates. This likely made things rather slide-y subflooring wise. Also note that the shrubs around the house look pretty much untouched. If I had to guess, I'd say surveyors probably won't go above high-end EF3 because of this, despite what looks like an otherwise well-built home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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