Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Hoosier

2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

Recommended Posts

From this evening's AFD from Cleveland...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will lift toward the region on Friday with showers
and a few thunderstorms possible late friday night into
Saturday. At some point Saturday afternoon the 
showers/thunderstorms will lift northeast eventually clearing NW
PA Saturday evening. We will then be dry until a cold front
moves into the area on Sunday. The threat for severe
thunderstorms will exist Sunday afternoon and evening. We will
be monitoring this potential over the next couple days. The
showers/thunderstorms should clear the region after midnight
Sunday night. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure on its level of destabilization into this region, but that trough the 12z Euro has next Wednesday/Thursday looks like it would have some level of severe threat into the sub-forum. Nice open wave with a 70+ kt H5 max.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some risk for severe the next two days in the region, but Tuesday looks like the next decent shot for something interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There have been a lot of hail reports in Iowa.  Most of it has been pea size, but one nasty cell dropped golfball to baseball size hail as it tracked just south of Waterloo.  Now it's turning into a heavy rain event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite the interesting looking warm front setup from IA into western and central IL on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good agreement overall on the 12z operational guidance. Excellent directional shear with backed surface flow, southwest at 850 and west or even west-northwest at 500, along with dew points pooled into the 60s along the front.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Quite the interesting looking warm front setup from IA into western and central IL on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good agreement overall on the 12z operational guidance. Excellent directional shear with backed surface flow, southwest at 850 and west or even west-northwest at 500, along with dew points pooled into the 60s along the front.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Indeed.  Worth watching.  Position of the surface low during the day on Wednesday suggests that there shouldn't be much resistance to that front sliding down the lake, so a good chunk of northern IL may be out of the game as the guidance is suggesting... at least until perhaps overnight into Thursday when it may come north given progged surface low track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z NAM has more of a threat in northern IL on Wednesday on this run.  Quicker/northward surface low doesn't allow as much of a southward push of the cold/lake enhanced front, which brings a significant threat into at least southern Chicago metro.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0z NAM is definitely sig.

 

Have a strong MCS develop Tues evening in NE/SD, which races ENE into WI/N. IL by Wed afternoon. Nice pressure couplet with that as well. Then you have afternoon/evening supercell threat along the outflow enhanced warm front in E. IA/N. IL. Some very nice soundings in N. IL.

 

Might be some convective feedback though with that MCS thought messing with pressure fields.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm skeptical of pooling upper 60s dewpoints near the warm front... perhaps if it was a few weeks later... but even something like 63 in that shear environment would be good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I'm skeptical of pooling upper 60s dewpoints near the warm front... perhaps if it was a few weeks later... but even something like 63 in that shear environment would be good.

Upper 60s is probably overdone, but I will say things have greened up nicely and moisture would pool on the boundaries. I could see 65, but I wouldn't be floored if it were higher if we have a stronger LLJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest runs have shifted west with a weaker surface low not backing low level winds much. That would suggest a less discrete storm mode than what the NAM was showing yesterday (if models were even breaking out any precip in warm sector that is). Best environment is near sfc low in IA on newest runs but short window given how close cold air is from sharp warm front.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wednesday is interesting to say at least in the IA,IL area. If you get those storms to ride along the warm front could spell some big trouble.  Further east on Thursday across most eastern part of sub-forum OH/PA looks interesting to me also. Since i will be out an about working out in East OH, maybe i could get into one the good storms and get some good video or pictures.

I think both days on Wednesday and Thursday could have a decent amount of severe weather and some tornadoes thrown in there too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After reviewing more data, GFS has been consistent the past 3 days with a large scale trough in the Apr 29-30th range. Euro is not quite in range but has a large trough over the plains at hour 240. CFS has been throwing a signal as well. 

CIPS also shows widespread severe at hour 240. 

 

Im sure someone with more knowledge of teleconnection and general patterns can chime in but there is a pretty strong signal from all the models ive seen. 

Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 9.45.28 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 9.44.34 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 9.43.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 9.48.37 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KG4KBU said:

As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk
 

Still a while out so timing cant be nailed down...Sometime around april 27-29 IMO. Then again this all could just disappear in the next run. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Still a while out so timing cant be nailed down...Sometime around april 27-29 IMO. Then again this all could just disappear in the next run. 


Would we know more about timing around friday or saturday of this week coming up?

Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, KG4KBU said:


Would we know more about timing around friday or saturday of this week coming up?

Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk
 

I'd say around sunday or monday...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro had an incredible look for day 9 for the OV. Definitely something to monitor going forward. I don't think either us or the plains escapes the next 10 days without a significant event, potentially both regions could get one if the 12z Euro is correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×