wisconsinwx Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: There's a surprise. I did notice a bit of a secondary instability zone was progged in that area though. No lightning with those storms (must have been insufficient lapse rates and it doesn't help that the area had cooled off from previous rains) but enough shear and instability to produce a tornado (or at the very least some significant winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 Madison tornado video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Madison tornado video All those people are damn lucky it was a weak tornado because that could have rolled their cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 I get the sense that something more significant severe wx wise might affect the central US towards mid/the third week of October. Consistent signal among the ensembles for a very strong Pacific jet and a continued western trough, which should allow repeated lee cyclogenesis assuming everything isn't too far off the mark (and the ridge doesn't become too dominant in the SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 I guess there was a tornado warning in my county last night. I'm out of town and didn't realize it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, Jonger said: I guess there was a tornado warning in my county last night. I'm out of town and didn't realize it until now. Yeah, there were some wind reports in eastern Michigan, but nothing tornadic as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 Madison tornado is preliminary EF-0 http://www.weather.gov/mkx/tor100717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Day 5 for the parts of KS and the mid-Missouri valley. Good call, Andy. SPC Discussion Quote ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... The medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMet maintain a southwest mid-level flow pattern across much of the U.S. on Friday. The models are forecasting moisture return to take place from the southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible Friday night along the northern edge of a moist air mass from the southern High Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Although this activity may be elevated in nature, hail will be possible with the stronger cells. On Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough eastward but vary on the timing of the system with the ECMWF considerably slower than the other three solutions. The three faster solutions of the GFS, Canadian and UKMET, and to a lesser degree, the ECMWF, would favor a severe threat in the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley Saturday evening into the overnight. Confidence is great enough to add a 15 percent contour from central Kansas into southern Iowa. DMX's 3:09am AFD Tidbit Quote Upper wind fields with the stronger Euro depict a possible severe weather outbreak just east of our area into Illinois/Indiana/ Michigan while the GFS is farther northeast with the better coincident wind maxes aloft. With such a wide range of possibilities...confidence remains low into the weekend for many of the main forecast elements. Latest model suites do favor S IA and N MO, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/8/2017 at 2:24 PM, Hoosier said: Yeah, there were some wind reports in eastern Michigan, but nothing tornadic as of yet. Looks like the storms pretty much split Detroit proper, but overall it wasn't a bad event for October. You know it's been a pretty awful season for severe weather even the best event comes in October of all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I believe Andy was referring to the potential coming up later next week and beyond, not the threat for this weekend. That does look like a nice Pac jet coming in. It should be an interesting time period to follow severe wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 8 hours ago, nwburbschaser said: I believe Andy was referring to the potential coming up later next week and beyond, not the threat for this weekend. That does look like a nice Pac jet coming in. It should be an interesting time period to follow severe wise. I sort of included both potentials (with the mid/third week of Oct thing) although with more emphasis on the second wave/jet streak that looks to make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Must admit that after following all the hurricane and tropical threads it is a bit disconcerting to realize we are now entering our second svr season in Midwestern areas. Time to shift gears once again before winter sets in. Was greatly surprised by the Madison tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 New D4. Quote The medium range models including the ECWMF, GFS, Canadian and UKmet move an upper-level trough across the Rockies and into the Great Plains Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the system, a low-level jet is forecast to strengthen from the southern Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the low-level jet Saturday evening persisting through the overnight period. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear along this corridor appear sufficient for a severe threat with isolated large hail and wind damage possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Thought that I'd throw this in here. I've seen politicians that blow harder than this, but hey, a tornado's a tornado. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR SUNMAN INDIANA... Location...Near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana Date...October 7 2017 Estimated Start Time...905 PM EDT Estimated End Time...906 PM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65-70 MPH Maximum Path Width...100 Yards Path Length...2.7 Miles Beginning Lat/Lon...39.2268 N / 85.1066 W Ending lat/Lon...39.24154 N / 85.05855 W * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has confirmed a tornado near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana on October 7 2017. The first evidence of damage and therefor the determined start of the touchdown track was on the westernmost end of Industrial Drive near Sunman. Trees of 4 to 5 inches in diameter were snapped about halfway up the trunks. At one property on Industrial Drive, barn doors were damaged by the tornado. At another property on the same road, a trailer was pushed off its foundation. Tree damage was also observed along Industrial Drive, extending to properties on Brick Yard Drive. On Meridian Street about a half mile south of Sunman, a tractor-trailer was damaged by the tornado. Several trees were observed to be damaged in a wooded area east of Meridian Street and north of Edgewood Lane. The tornado is believed to have crossed the Ripley/Dearborn county line in the vicinity of N Dearborn Road. The most significant structural damage was observed at a property on Kruse Lane in Dearborn County. A barn had its roof partially removed and several walls were damaged. According to the resident at this location, metal roofing from the barn was found about three-quarters of a mile away, and insulation was carried as much as four miles downwind. There was also tree damage found at this location. The last visible sign of damage and presumed end point of the tornado path was about a quarter mile north of the intersection of Fackler and North Dearborn Roads. There were 4 to 6 inch diameter tree limbs down in this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Thought that I'd throw this in here. I've seen politicians that blow harder than this, but hey, a tornado's a tornado. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR SUNMAN INDIANA... Location...Near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana Date...October 7 2017 Estimated Start Time...905 PM EDT Estimated End Time...906 PM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65-70 MPH Maximum Path Width...100 Yards Path Length...2.7 Miles Beginning Lat/Lon...39.2268 N / 85.1066 W Ending lat/Lon...39.24154 N / 85.05855 W * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has confirmed a tornado near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana on October 7 2017. The first evidence of damage and therefor the determined start of the touchdown track was on the westernmost end of Industrial Drive near Sunman. Trees of 4 to 5 inches in diameter were snapped about halfway up the trunks. At one property on Industrial Drive, barn doors were damaged by the tornado. At another property on the same road, a trailer was pushed off its foundation. Tree damage was also observed along Industrial Drive, extending to properties on Brick Yard Drive. On Meridian Street about a half mile south of Sunman, a tractor-trailer was damaged by the tornado. Several trees were observed to be damaged in a wooded area east of Meridian Street and north of Edgewood Lane. The tornado is believed to have crossed the Ripley/Dearborn county line in the vicinity of N Dearborn Road. The most significant structural damage was observed at a property on Kruse Lane in Dearborn County. A barn had its roof partially removed and several walls were damaged. According to the resident at this location, metal roofing from the barn was found about three-quarters of a mile away, and insulation was carried as much as four miles downwind. There was also tree damage found at this location. The last visible sign of damage and presumed end point of the tornado path was about a quarter mile north of the intersection of Fackler and North Dearborn Roads. There were 4 to 6 inch diameter tree limbs down in this location. Wow that's surprising. As I recall there never was a warning of any kind as those storms moved through just some special weather statements for winds up to 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 On 10/8/2017 at 6:03 AM, andyhb said: I get the sense that something more significant severe wx wise might affect the central US towards mid/the third week of October. Consistent signal among the ensembles for a very strong Pacific jet and a continued western trough, which should allow repeated lee cyclogenesis assuming everything isn't too far off the mark (and the ridge doesn't become too dominant in the SE). Unfortunately for those of us looking for some October chases, doesn't look like it's going to pan out this way. Tomorrow looks meh with a low probability of photogenic supercells/tornadoes, and SPC not seeing anything in their day 4-8. Quote Large-scale pattern, during the medium-range period, will become increasingly hostile toward organized severe thunderstorm development. Dominant surface ridge over the Eastern States will force higher PW air mass off the continental US with only the FL Peninsula remaining seasonally moist within easterly flow regime along southern periphery of aforementioned ridge. In the absence of meaningful instability the potential for severe appears negligible next week. I was on the other side of town at a birthday party when that random tornado hit my hometown last weekend. The chief meteorologist from the TV station I work at was also there (he works the morning shows Mon-Fri., as do I) and we were both geeking out over the returns on my RadarScope app. It actually hit only a couple blocks from my girlfriend's apartment, and a couple blocks more from the house where I grew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 This might be some exciting lightning and thunder for northwest Illinois. Today's 12z 3-km NAM does not have high surface-CAPE for this area, but MUCAPE might be enough for some severe reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Long way out but the period around November 6 may be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Impressive that the 12z GFS has CAPE 1000+ well into WI/MI in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Yeah been watching that period on the Euro as well, question would be if the trough comes out in pieces or all at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 GFS continues to hold serve for Nov. 6 midday with 60-65 dewpoints across central IL and IN. Will have to see what transpires with models this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Looks pretty meh as modeled on today's runs*. Could see maybe just some low-topped wind producers ahead of a sweeping cold front, but the main surface low is waaaaaaaay the heck up in Canada. *18z finally out to 168 with considerably more CAPE into the Midwest then the 12z, but then they call it the Happy Hour run for a reason. Still, the synoptic look screams driving cold front with limited if any window for sustained surface-based convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Yeah, would be nice to see the surface low not so far north, though the 18z GFS does have a trailing/secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 12Z GFS is a lot faster with it, speak would be around Sunday night/Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 12Z GFS is a lot faster with it, speak would be around Sunday night/Monday morning 12z looks a lot better than previous runs for IL/maybe IN too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 One thing that has been modeled consistently is good mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: 12z looks a lot better than previous runs for IL/maybe IN too. Yes falling much more in line with the Euro 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: One thing that has been modeled consistently is good mid level lapse rates. Yeah pretty good pocket of instability with this one, Euro 1500-1800 J/kg SBCAPE at 18z to 00z. With a upper 60s/mid 60s surface profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yes falling much more in line with the Euro Yeah pretty good pocket of instability with this one, Euro 1500-1800 J/kg SBCAPE at 18z to 00z. With a upper 60s/mid 60s surface profile. Would still prefer to see the surface low not fly into Canada like that, but I wouldn't write it off just because of that. Can't ignore a system that gets that kind of CAPE this far north in November. That is not something that happens with regularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would still prefer to see the surface low not fly into Canada like that, but I wouldn't write it off just because of that. Can't ignore a system that gets that kind of CAPE this far north in November. That is not something that happens with regularity. As long as there is the secondary low the potential is pretty good, the Euro was much stronger with the secondary low, and low level wind response as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Here's the 12z Euro SBCAPE. Impressive northward extent for time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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