Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Stebo said:

5% tor risk for SEMI on the new day 1, actually seeing a decent consensus of some supercells forming across MI later today as long as stuff can move out early enough in the morning. That said right now models are overdoing what is supposed to be out there right now as well.

So much for today (not that it wasn't expected).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 525
  • Created
  • Last Reply
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
901 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TORNADO          4 E KINGSTON            43.41N 83.11W 
08/17/2017                   TUSCOLA            MI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. NUMEROUS TREES 
            DOWN, A TRAILER IS FLIPPED OVER, AND METAL/SHINGLES TORN 
            FROM ROOF.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC has a Day 5 risk outlined for most of the eastern part of the sub for Tuesday (Aug. 22):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Subtropical ridging may remain prominent across much of the central
   and southern tier of the U.S. through much of next week.  However,
   the latest medium range model output suggests that an initially
   zonal belt of westerlies, near the Canadian/U.S. border early next
   week, may undergo amplification by mid week.  This appears likely to
   include a digging large-scale upper trough across the Great Lakes
   region, accompanied by a significant cold front, which could
   progress through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of
   the work week.  Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front
   may be accompanied by considerable thunderstorm development.  At the
   present time, it seems that this may be favorably timed with peak
   diurnal boundary layer destabilization across the southern/lower
   Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley, to support severe storm
   development Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Severe weather potential
   across areas farther south and east becomes more uncertain by
   Wednesday, as the front may advance across southern New England and
   northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas as early as mid day, and
   stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields shift
   north/northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes.

   ..Kerr.. 08/18/2017
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said:

SPC has a Day 5 risk outlined for most of the eastern part of the sub for Tuesday (Aug. 22):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Subtropical ridging may remain prominent across much of the central
   and southern tier of the U.S. through much of next week.  However,
   the latest medium range model output suggests that an initially
   zonal belt of westerlies, near the Canadian/U.S. border early next
   week, may undergo amplification by mid week.  This appears likely to
   include a digging large-scale upper trough across the Great Lakes
   region, accompanied by a significant cold front, which could
   progress through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of
   the work week.  Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front
   may be accompanied by considerable thunderstorm development.  At the
   present time, it seems that this may be favorably timed with peak
   diurnal boundary layer destabilization across the southern/lower
   Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley, to support severe storm
   development Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Severe weather potential
   across areas farther south and east becomes more uncertain by
   Wednesday, as the front may advance across southern New England and
   northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas as early as mid day, and
   stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields shift
   north/northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes.

   ..Kerr.. 08/18/2017
 

Been watching this one for a bit, could be a good squall line potential with this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The storms just SE of DC and Baltimore are producing over 1,400 strikes per minute.

I don't think I've ever seen anything close to that. Even the Real Time lighting tracker can't process all of the strikes fast enough.

Healthiest weather event I've experienced since a Hurricane.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Can't believe with an enhanced more people are not on here today. Could get some early turners when these storms develop

Partially because it's a holiday (thus everyone's busy with outdoor / family functions), and partially because (as IWXwx mentioned earlier) it's such a narrow window for activity that many of us have just as good of a chance at not seeing anything. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm must be late for something...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC017-041900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0045.170904T1807Z-170904T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
207 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Bay County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pinconning,
  moving east at 85 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Bay
  County, including the following locations: Auburn, Pinconning,
  Linwood, Kawkawlin, Bentley, Mount Forest, Crump, Willard and Bay
  City State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4391 8396 4382 8389 4381 8389
      4374 8391 4369 8388 4368 8385 4357 8414
      4357 8416 4400 8417 4400 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 265DEG 72KT 4386 8403

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MIZ059-065>067-072>074-042030-
Clinton-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing,
Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

Conditions in Southern Lower Michigan are becoming favorable for the
development of thunderstorms over the next several hours this
afternoon... especially near and southeast of Kalamazoo...
Hastings... and Saint Johns. Thunderstorms may develop rapidly and
move to the east at 50 to 60 mph. Cloud to ground lightning strikes
will be dangerous to people caught outdoors. Storms may later
intensify and be capable of producing hail around 1 inch in
diameter... and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Remain alert for changing weather conditions this afternoon... and be
prepared to move indoors quickly if storms develop. Additional
statements... watches... or warnings will be issued by the National
Weather Service later this afternoon if needed.

$$

CAS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Powerball said:

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pinconning,
  moving east at 85 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to highlight that 85mph value. Cells are moving at 50-55 kts on average, and they are not very severe.  That is fast, but the 85mph is just one of those things you get when the computer algorithm calculates one cell moves faster than the others.

On a related note, the HRRR runs have been highlighting some stronger storms around Lenawee County Michigan. Regardless, wind damage along the line of storms (later) may be somewhat random anyway, in SE Michigan and NW Ohio. Maybe my parents will see something interesting (for once.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

SPC just introduced an area of 45 unhatched winds 

Nice. Right over my head too. I won't be posting much when the feces hits the electric air circulating machine, I'll be out in the open somewhere holding my Kestral out of the window.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...