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2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

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5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That tornado was a damn big surprise.

Next shot at Severe for the majority of the subforum looks to be Saturday Night

Not to those who were paying attention:

On 5/22/2017 at 9:35 PM, IWXwx said:

Although heavy rains and renewed flooding for already soaked soil/full rivers across Indiana are possible Wednesday, Mike Ryan made an interesting observation in this afternoon's IND discussion:


One interesting 
component to Wednesday which should not be ignored...the presence of 
such a strong surface wave at 995mb or lower is likely to contribute 
to plenty of spin in the atmosphere with good amounts of BL shear 
and storm relative helicity being present. While the rain and clouds 
will keep heating substantially diminished...weak MLCAPEs peaking at 
around 500 j/kg and LCLs generally below 2kft could enable brief 
spinners with any stronger convective cell. Something to monitor 
going forward. 

  

 

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16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Thing is that it was anything but a "brief spinner" which is his point I think. No one expected a tornado to be as strong as it appears to be and on the ground for as long as it was.

Have to say, I couldn't have said it better. Those TOG(s) were not at all the definition of "brief spinner". It was a legit miss, similar to last August in OH. Not on that scale, but a miss nonetheless.

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Went back and checked the 00z ILN sounding, and it did not have much instability.  There was considerable directional shear though and I'm not sure if the thermodynamic environment may have improved in the 1-2 hours after.  

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Confirmed EF 1 in Park Layne which is in southwest Clark County.

 

Quote

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1004 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR PARK LAYNE IN CLARK COUNTY OHIO...

The damage survey team has confirmed a tornado caused the damage
in Park Layne, Clark County Ohio.

Based on the damage, the maximum winds were estimated to be 100
mph, corresponding to an EF1 tornado.

Additional information about the path length and width, time and
details about the damage will be sent in another PNS later today.
 

 

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Went back and checked the 00z ILN sounding, and it did not have much instability.  There was considerable directional shear though and I'm not sure if the thermodynamic environment may have improved in the 1-2 hours after.  

Me and Andy were talking about the environment as the tornado was ongoing, there was good 0-3km CAPE 100-125 j/kg. That is very sufficient for tornadoes.

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Not much going on in this crappy pattern, but one thing to watch will be the warm front Friday afternoon/evening. Nice low-level shear/low LCLs with some moderate instability near the front.  Some of the models fire convection along it during that time frame.  Storm vectors would keep anything that fires moving parallel to the warm front which could help.  Mid-upper flow is pretty weak, so need some really hard right movement to really take advantage of this setup.  

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Not much going on in this crappy pattern, but one thing to watch will be the warm front Friday afternoon/evening. Nice low-level shear/low LCLs with some moderate instability near the front.  Some of the models fire convection along it during that time frame.  Storm vectors would keep anything that fires moving parallel to the warm front which could help.  Mid-upper flow is pretty weak, so need some really hard right movement to really take advantage of this setup.  

Probably jinxed it.  18z 3km NAM dormant with the WF until the elevated scheme kicks in after dark.  

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota.

HdLj8l4.gif

 

Yeah I don't want to hear about anyone saying MI posters are complaining about missing storms. We have been screwed every way possible.

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50 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I don't want to hear about anyone saying MI posters are complaining about missing storms. We have been screwed every way possible.

Doesn't look to be changing any time soon either.

That said, there's still plenty of time. 

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota.

HdLj8l4.gif

 

The lack of action in the northern Plains so far makes sense.  The Michigan situation not as much... probably some bad luck there as well as not being into primetime climo.

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3 hours ago, Chinook said:

Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota.

HdLj8l4.gif

 

This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well.

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3 hours ago, bowtie` said:

This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well.

 

2 hours ago, illinois said:

I would assume sparse population and reporting network. That would be Salt Lake City, so highest population density. 

That is part of it plus they are in a valley there and tend to get some wind events periodically. 

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8 hours ago, bowtie` said:

This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well.

I grew up in that corner of UT.  That map does indeed follow the major population centers along the western side of the Wasatch range--called by natives the "Wasatch Front."  There are some very strong wind events to the west and north of that square, but the land use is huge dry farms run by farmers who live some distance away so few actually have homes or buildings and therefore less awareness.  To the east are the mountains, and so some few mountain communities.  There are some significant winds that come out of the canyons though, if the situation is right. Communities to the south are limited by water, much of which comes from smaller wells.  It is windy and cold in the winter!

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