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2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

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Definitely potential from the Plains on into our sub-forum Wednesday-Saturday.

 

One issue to watch that has been shown and could be an issue is a meridional flow for some part of that timeframe.

 

A setup like this also tends to have "messy" setups as the days go on, with repeated rounds of convection and debris.

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As I suspected a Day 8 15% has been outlined for the plains. This is at least the 2nd time this year there has been a Day 8 highlighted.

...Friday/Day 8...
   The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S.,
   developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region.
   This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great
   Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been
   forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe
   weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the
   southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind
   damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on
   Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places
   the greatest chance of severe weather.
 

Tornadoes mentioned.
 

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LOT noticing

Wednesday through the end of the week, a strong upper wave is expected to carve out a deep trough over the Intermountain West which will set the stage for a classic severe weather setup over portions of the Great Plains and potentially into portions of the Midwest. A deep upper trough axis centered over the Desert Southwest and a Bermuda High will allow a wide open gulf and good moisture transport into the region while aloft strong flow is
expected as a negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts across the region. Way to early to get into specific location and timing details, but initial indications are for the possibility of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms locally Thursday
through the weekend along with much warmer and potentially summer-like temperatures starting Friday. Warm front lifting across the region Thursday will bring a shot of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures possibly well into the 80s as we get into the warm sector Friday and/or Saturday. As models begin to hone in on the timing and track of the surface low and attendant front over the next few days, any local severe thunderstorm threat should
become more clear, but in the meantime just bears close watching until the details come into better focus.

Deubelbeiss
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8 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS would have a nice little severe event Wed. night for Southern MI, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio

The day 4 outlook has an area outlined farther southwest (southeast Missouri) but there should be a severe threat into more of the region.

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Wednesday setup may tend to be messy/linear (and instability looks somewhat modest) but this isn't completely terrible in northern IL.  Strong wind fields through the column.  I like the general trend toward deepening surface low but the flow aloft is pretty meridional.

58fd6fcc503e3_2017042400_NAM_072_42.09-88.66_severe_ml.thumb.png.d46124220074b292546da37aff8c0e03.png

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wednesday setup may tend to be messy/linear (and instability looks somewhat modest) but this isn't completely terrible in northern IL.  Strong wind fields through the column.  I like the general trend toward deepening surface low but the flow aloft is pretty meridional.

58fd6fcc503e3_2017042400_NAM_072_42.09-88.66_severe_ml.thumb.png.d46124220074b292546da37aff8c0e03.png

A surprising thing to note is the GFS is actually more bullish with it than the NAM.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow updated drought monitor is pretty nuts. Scattered reports of abnormally dry in the plains and Deep South, with a drought confined to Georgia, Florida, Alabama. This hasn't taken into account the rain over the past few days neither. 

I've never seen the map this bare before, also it was confirmed this is the lowest amount of the country in drought since 2000

C2953771-5CF7-4735-8FAC-EEC3D53FB634.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Wow updated drought monitor is pretty nuts. Scattered reports of abnormally dry in the plains and Deep South, with a drought confined to Georgia, Florida, Alabama. This hasn't taken into account the rain over the past few days neither. 

I've never seen the map this bare before, also it was confirmed this is the lowest amount of the country in drought since 2000

C2953771-5CF7-4735-8FAC-EEC3D53FB634.jpg

Still incredible how relatively quickly those long term exceptional drought areas cleared up 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Although heavy rains and renewed flooding for already soaked soil/full rivers across Indiana are possible Wednesday, Mike Ryan made an interesting observation in this afternoon's IND discussion:

One interesting 
component to Wednesday which should not be ignored...the presence of 
such a strong surface wave at 995mb or lower is likely to contribute 
to plenty of spin in the atmosphere with good amounts of BL shear 
and storm relative helicity being present. While the rain and clouds 
will keep heating substantially diminished...weak MLCAPEs peaking at 
around 500 j/kg and LCLs generally below 2kft could enable brief 
spinners with any stronger convective cell. Something to monitor 
going forward. 
  
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Friday and Saturday thunderstorms in Illinois are getting more interesting, but still lots of questions. Friday a short wave will eject out of the central Plains. If timing is correct, NAM shows a little meso-low in Illinois. Heights are rising slightly, but at least the cap is not insurmountable on Friday. Might be locally higher low level shear just east of that low. Saturday the main system comes out. Should be a warm front and/or outflow boundary draped over Illinois from prior rain. If timing is right the surface low and warm front would promote favorable wind profiles for severe thunderstorms Saturday.

EDIT: 12Z Euro is a train wreck Saturday. It is one-and-done Friday with low press in Illinois. Hope the GFS is right with 2 days, but yeah GFS...

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WTF happened to the radar last couple scans?

 

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
922 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 922 PM EDT, A TORNADO-PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES   
  SOUTHWEST OF NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN   
           THE AIR.   

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

WTF happened to the radar last couple scans?

 

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
922 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 922 PM EDT, A TORNADO-PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES   
  SOUTHWEST OF NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN   
           THE AIR.   

Radar is having issues with reflectivity, there is or was a tornado there though, a strong one at that. You could see the strong couplet on Dayton's TWR radar very clearly.

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still is

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
929 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
OHC109-250145-  
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170525T0145Z/  
MIAMI OH-  
929 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY...  
          
AT 929 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED FOUR MILES WEST OF   
NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE   
         AIR.   
  

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