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Winter 2017-18 Disco


Bob Chill

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17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Or, it's more model support for a shift to a favorable winter pattern,  which is what I believe.  How about you? 

Thats what I would like to believe. Lets see what it does over the next several runs. It has been rock steady with the "bad look" in recent runs after previously flipping around, but maybe it has caught on.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Canada is typically cold in Nina’s. Which is why we can get some cold shots, even if things end up warm in the balance.

True, but I still like to see a good snow pack. Helps to create a deep dense layer of cold that isn't easily scoured out nor do you have the temp issues at mid-levels that quite often occurs with shallow cold. And it seems in recent years it has been a fight to get decent snow pack in Canada.

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36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

True, but I still like to see a good snow pack. Helps to create a deep dense layer of cold that isn't easily scoured out nor do you have the temp issues at mid-levels that quite often occurs with shallow cold. And it seems in recent years it has been a fight to get decent snow pack in Canada.

Oh I don't disagree.  Certainly better than the alternative.  I particularly hope the snow pack builds up in Ontario and Quebec.  

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2 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.

The 84-85 analog showed up a long time ago when looking at enso conditions that were forecast.  Interesting that it's still there.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 84-85 analog showed up a long time ago when looking at enso conditions that were forecast.  Interesting that it's still there.

2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January.  Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same.  Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.  

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29 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January.  Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same.  Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.  

Yeah, my memories of the last half of winter in 1985 are good ones.  The cold outbreak was incredible 

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23 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Models have gravitated toward more -PNA in the medium range. Negative AO/NAO doesn't really show up until after day 10. If verified good, but there can be a lot of changes. Kind of a 5/10 signal on models today wrt Winter

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

a pattern full of bowling balls, clippers, and the occsionally well timed SWFE.

:P

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

The 60's were loaded with them. Generally speaking, HL blocking and a -PNA is a wintry pattern for the bulk of the conus except for the far SW. It's not a clean pattern for our region but further north loves it. The majority of the years with a -ao/-pna combo reached climo snow in the MA. The short story is a -pna isn't nearly as big of a deal with a -ao winter as it is with a +ao one. That combo is a death knell. 

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The 60's were loaded with them. Generally speaking, HL blocking and a -PNA is a wintry pattern for the bulk of the conus except for the far SW. It's not a clean pattern for our region but further north loves it. The majority of the years with a -ao/-pna combo reached climo snow in the MA. The short story is a -pna isn't nearly as big of a deal with a -ao winter as it is with a +ao one. That combo is a death knell. 


How about a +EPO, -PNA,-AO,-NAO


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35 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:


How about a +EPO, -PNA,-AO,-NAO


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Generally speaking, a numerical +epo will coincide with a -pna because of domain space overlap more often than not but certainly not always. Depends on the location of the +EPO trough axis though. If we have a big GOA vortex then the only thing a -AO/NAO will displace is Pac maritime air. If the +EPO trough is centered more over land like AK then it's different because cold air can still build in Canada. 

I'm not big on using numerical indices for sensible wx. Best to use the h5 height panels because they tell the real story versus numerical stuff. The answer to your question is sometimes it can suck and sometimes it can be serviceable. 

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