Winter 2017-18 Disco

[Bob Chill]

One of the more interesting aspects of 95-96 is JF featured a neg pna most of the time and it was still very wintry in the east. The neg bias to the pna was probably part of the reason for the big temp swings during winter but it was stormy and snowy for much of the country. I was living in the Rockies that year and it was a massive snow year. Especially January. It's a unique year in some ways. Cold and snow in the pac nw/rockies but also much of the country east of the Rockies. 

One of the problems with using 95-96 as an analog is its uniqueness. Pretty special nina year for the conus. I could see shades of 95-96 happening this year if blocking returns. Doesn't look like the nina is going to be strong enough to drive the bus entirely. 

The pattern we've been seeing in Oct can be a typical winter pattern so that gives me some pause. Not saying I think it's some sort of omen or anything. Just a reminder that a peristant -pna can waste a lot of time. Imagine if the Oct pattern set up in early December. It would be an all too familiar punt a month of met winter while basking in a shutout pattern. Gah

I'm pretty interested in what happens in November. Previous couple 3 years featured a strengthening strat and trop pv. It would be pretty encouraging if Nov features a weaker and disrupted strat and trop pv. Screw waiting for a unicorn SSW event. Let's kick off met winter without battling something bad like that for once. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually am liking the look we are seeing on both the GEFS and the Eps in the extended (The GEFS more so then the EPS). The look suggests building heights into the Greenland region for the start of November. But as we all know, how often have we seen a building -NAO in the extended only to see it pushed back time and again?

Yeah it is a nice early look. And yes the largest +height anomalies are not exactly where we would want, but that is at the end of the run so the heights may be on the way to building further north and west.

This year is going to different though! -QBO and low solar activity

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the more interesting aspects of 95-96 is JF featured a neg pna most of the time and it was still very wintry in the east. The neg bias to the pna was probably part of the reason for the big temp swings during winter but it was stormy and snowy for much of the country. I was living in the Rockies that year and it was a massive snow year. Especially January. It's a unique year in some ways. Cold and snow in the pac nw/rockies but also much of the country east of the Rockies. 

One of the problems with using 95-96 as an analog is its uniqueness. Pretty special nina year for the conus. I could see shades of 95-96 happening this year if blocking returns. Doesn't look like the nina is going to be strong enough to drive the bus entirely. 

The pattern we've been seeing in Oct can be a typical winter pattern so that gives me some pause. Not saying I think it's some sort of omen or anything. Just a reminder that a peristant -pna can waste a lot of time. Imagine if the Oct pattern set up in early December. It would be an all too familiar punt a month of met winter while basking in a shutout pattern. Gah

I'm pretty interested in what happens in November. Previous couple 3 years featured a strengthening strat and trop pv. It would be pretty encouraging if Nov features a weaker and disrupted strat and trop pv. Screw waiting for a unicorn SSW event. Let's kick off met winter without battling something bad like that for once. 

You had mentioned a while ago that you could tell what type of pattern that was setting up by where the snow was falling in the Colorado Rockies. I believe you said that snowfall in the southern portion was typical of a El Nino and the northern portion was typical of a Nina? Looking at the projected snowfall on both the GEFS and the EPS over the next two weeks shows snowfall throughout the entire region not confined to south or north. Does that have any significance to you?

 

When it became obvious that we were dealing with a Nina this year to say I was down would be an understatement. But what I have been seeing the last month or so has really boosted my spirits for the first half of winter. Maybe I am being overly optimistic (read weenie here) but I believe the odds are better then 50/50 that we see an early onset of winter and blocking, potentially through at least the first half of winter. And to be honest I actually believe that is what we will see. I will admit though that your discussion in regards to SAI and the lack of sea ice in the Barent/Kara sea region did dampen my enthusiasm a touch. If I am correct in my thoughts though we will know within the next 3 to 4 weeks as good blocking should hopefully show up, potentially very strong at that. If we do not see that blocking materialize by mid-November I think we can probably write off the first half of winter.

 

Been casually watching strat/pv but as you said we probably need to wait until November to get a good idea in that regards. About the only thing that can be said is I haven't seen any red flags but that isn't saying much at this point.

[mitchnick]

I don't bother doing a whole lot research at this point of the year as you may have suspected. Lol But I do feel that this winter has a shot at a really good one with some "more than our usual luck." I do think the -QBO and low solar will give us some serviceable blocking at times and the Nina looks underwhelming.  I really was encouraged by the Euro forecast. If that worked out close to progged,  we'd have plenty of chances and then AN luck needs to occur. Even without it, I think we come close to normal (80%'ish+) snowfall at the 3 airports. With decent luck, 25-35"? That's a Wag. I just don't feel a real dog is in the cards this year.

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You had mentioned a while ago that you could tell what type of pattern that was setting up by where the snow was falling in the Colorado Rockies. I believe you said that snowfall in the southern portion was typical of a El Nino and the northern portion was typical of a Nina? Looking at the projected snowfall on both the GEFS and the EPS over the next two weeks shows snowfall throughout the entire region not confined to south or north. Does that have any significance to you?

 

When it became obvious that we were dealing with a Nina this year to say I was down would be an understatement. But what I have been seeing the last month or so has really boosted my spirits for the first half of winter. Maybe I am being overly optimistic (read weenie here) but I believe the odds are better then 50/50 that we see an early onset of winter and blocking, potentially through at least the first half of winter. And to be honest I actually believe that is what we will see. I will admit though that your discussion in regards to SAI and the lack of sea ice in the Barent/Kara sea region did dampen my enthusiasm a touch. If I am correct in my thoughts though we will know within the next 3 to 4 weeks as good blocking should hopefully show up, potentially very strong at that. If we do not see that blocking materialize by mid-November I think we can probably write off the first half of winter.

 

Been casually watching strat/pv but as you said we probably need to wait until November to get a good idea in that regards. About the only thing that can be said is I haven't seen any red flags but that isn't saying much at this point.

All regions in CO can get snow but storm track is definitely northern stream nina style with storms entering the pc NW. 15 day mean precip shows this quite clearly. The GOA trough and dry socal/desert SW is a pretty standard nina look. 

 

 

As we go through Nov we can get a feel for how strong the strat/trop PV will be leading into winter. Lack of blocking with a weak/disturbed/displaced strat PV is fine because blocking doesn't have to fight a brick wall. Lack of blocking and a big nasty strat PV would imply similar HL conditions to the last 3-4 years. 

 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All regions in CO can get snow but storm track is definitely northern stream nina style with storms entering the pc NW. 15 day mean precip shows this quite clearly. The GOA trough and dry socal/desert SW is a pretty standard nina look. 

 

Yeah, I had seen the deluge that we will see in the Pacific northwest into southwestern Canada, which is typical with a Nina coming off the Pacific. But I thought you had mentioned that there is a stark difference on the snowfall between the northern and southern portions of Colorado depending on the ENSO state and just wondered if the fact we see it forecasted throughout the mountains might mean we were seeing a slight tweaking of the typical Nina weather pattern downstream through the CONUS.

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I had seen the deluge that we will see in the Pacific northwest into southwestern Canada, which is typical with a Nina coming off the Pacific. But I thought you had mentioned that there is a stark difference on the snowfall between the northern and southern portions of Colorado depending on the ENSO state and just wondered if the fact we see it forecasted throughout the mountains might mean we were seeing a slight tweaking of the typical Nina weather pattern downstream through the CONUS.

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[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I can't recall a decent winter let alone a good one whenever I have seen snow in October. So I am with you, it can torch in October for all I care.

Didnt Oct 2002 have a T at BWI?

[CAPE]

Only significant snow I can remember in October was when I was a kid living in Carroll County. It was when the Os were in the world series so must have been 1979. It was like 4" of heavy wet snow and since it was early October(the 10th maybe?) all the leaves were still on the trees. Big time power outages. Totally not in the forecast either- low temps were forecast in the 40s with rain. Biggest surprise snow in memory for me when I woke up that morning. IIRC there was next to nothing SE of the fall line. Pretty rare to see much more than flurries on the coastal plain in October. That kind of bust(good kind) is next to impossible today.

[showmethesnow]

48 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Didnt Oct 2002 have a T at BWI?

I am bad with remembering dates so I am not really sure. All I know is that there have been several years when I was younger where my expectations were raised after seeing snow in the air in October. Only to be dashed as we cashed in on a crappy winter.

38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Only significant snow I can remember in October was when I was a kid living in Carroll County. It was when the Os were in the world series so must have been 1979. It was like 4" of heavy wet snow and since it was early October(the 10th maybe?) all the leaves were still on the trees. Big time power outages. Totally not in the forecast either- low temps were forecast in the 40s with rain. Biggest surprise snow in memory for me when I woke up that morning. IIRC there was next to nothing SE of the fall line. Pretty rare to see much more than flurries on the coastal plain in October. That kind of bust(good kind) is next to impossible today.

Was going to Owings Mills HS then. It was definitely a surprise because, as you said, it was not forecasted. Of course the rest of the winter was crap.

1 hour ago, BTRWx said:

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Thanks.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Only significant snow I can remember in October was when I was a kid living in Carroll County. It was when the Os were in the world series so must have been 1979. It was like 4" of heavy wet snow and since it was early October(the 10th maybe?) all the leaves were still on the trees. Big time power outages. Totally not in the forecast either- low temps were forecast in the 40s with rain. Biggest surprise snow in memory for me when I woke up that morning. IIRC there was next to nothing SE of the fall line. Pretty rare to see much more than flurries on the coastal plain in October. That kind of bust(good kind) is next to impossible today.

It was when the Colts packed up and left. I was at UMBC at the time. The west side of the loop, which was on the top of the hill, had almost 2" while the east side, the bottom, had barely an inch. Pretty cool if ur a weenie like I was/am.

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was going to Owings Mills HS then. It was definitely a surprise because, as you said, it was not forecasted. Of course the rest of the winter was crap.

 

Yeah I thought that ended up being a real crapper, which is one reason we never want to see snow in October lol. Wasn't there a big snowstorm that just missed south in early March that winter?. NC and Norfolk got clobbered I think.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was when the Colts packed up and left. I was at UMBC at the time. The west side of the loop, which was on the top of the hill, had almost 2" while the east side, the bottom, had barely an inch. Pretty cool if ur a weenie like I was/am.

No that was 1984. This was well before that. There was a snowstorm during that debacle though, but it was at the end of March.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No that was 1984. This was well before that. There was a snowstorm during that debacle though, but it was at the end of March.

Lived in Morningside apartments during that time which overlooked their training camp. Went out onto our balcony and watched them packing the May Flower vans. Was a bittersweet moment. Watching the snow fall but also seeing my team leaving town.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Lived in Morningside apartments during that time which overlooked their training camp. Went out onto our balcony and watched them packing the May Flower vans. Was a bittersweet moment. Watching the snow fall but also seeing my team leaving town.

Yeah that put a real damper on a cool late, late season snow event. 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Didnt Oct 2002 have a T at BWI?

I think Oct 2011 did with that cold Halloween nor'easter that gave hoffman like 6".  

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think Oct 2011 did with that cold Halloween nor'easter that gave hoffman like 6".  

Also true for DCA

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think Oct 2011 did with that cold Halloween nor'easter that gave hoffman like 6".  

For the life of me I don't remember this.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-10-29/news/bs-md-october-snow-20111029_1_wet-snow-baltimore-county-baltimore-gas

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For the life of me I don't remember this.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-10-29/news/bs-md-october-snow-20111029_1_wet-snow-baltimore-county-baltimore-gas

It snowed enough IMBY for 1-2" easy, but almost all melted on contact except in heavier bursts when it would accumulate on mulch and some grassy surfaces.  I ended up recording 0.1", but felt cheated that it wasn't more.  I think temps stayed in the 37-ish range all afternoon.  Probably if it had come at night it would have been more.  

[RevWarReenactor]

42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For the life of me I don't remember this.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-10-29/news/bs-md-october-snow-20111029_1_wet-snow-baltimore-county-baltimore-gas

Don't feel bad; I don't either. The older I get the more it all blends together. Snow on Halloween would be memorable, but its not ringing a bell.

[North Balti Zen]

I remember it - a few went chasing in southern PA and posted some awesome pics. Ended up being the harbinger of a terrible winter. Nothing to speak of really in the beltways. Mood flakes. 

[Bob Chill]

I think the Oct snow/crappy winter connection is mostly a byproduct of high odds because most of our winters are crappy and Oct snow is rare. Lol. 

[BTRWx]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's some maps from 10/29/2011. Its one of my favorite storms of all time given the time of year and downright rarity. 5.5 " in my yard . I'll never see that again most likely.  PSU got 7+" i think.  Sabillisville in the Catoctins got a foot . This map below isn't the most accurate but gives the basic idea.

Noaa probabilities the day before

I remember this well!

[BTRWx]

I know how many of you hate me saying stuff like this, but facts matter.  What's the percentage of posts from this thread that are about 2017-2018?...

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No that was 1984. This was well before that. There was a snowstorm during that debacle though, but it was at the end of March.

I do remember the event because I was at UMBC then. I just got the Colts move and that event screwed up. Age.  Lol

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think Oct 2011 did with that cold Halloween nor'easter that gave hoffman like 6".  

Had 8" here from that. One of my favorite storms. Heavy wet snow. No wind. Stuck to everything. 

[mattie g]

I remember hosting a Halloween party during that October 29 storm. Just wet flakes that coated the mulch in Burke. Only had one burst of decent snow - otherwise we got a bit of a dry slot.

[NorthArlington101]

If we are going to reminisce, I was just a wee lad outside playing soccer on a chilly October day when it began to snow. Clearly I wasn't weenie enough yet to be paying enough attention to the forecast, but as soon as the snow began I rushed onto my friends computer and watched the radar.

That storm is why I check the GFS every day in October, you never know.

Check out hours 324-336. Maybe we can squeeze in some back end snow.

[WVclimo]

I picked up 4" from that October 2011 storm.  I remember the sound of fully-leafed tree branches snapping constantly from the orchard that borders my property.  But the craziest part of that storm for me was that the following day had full sunshine and snow cover held on the entire day.  Here are some pics:

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

I picked up 4" from that October 2011 storm.  I remember the sound of fully-leafed tree branches snapping constantly from the orchard that borders my property.  But the craziest part of that storm for me was that the following day had full sunshine and snow cover held on the entire day.  Here are some pics:

I could be mistaken, but wasn't that the storm that dumped around a foot at Camp David? I recall driving up there around 5 years ago and talking to  Park Ranger about an early season snow that gave them that and whining I got only a coating.