Winter 2017-18 Disco

[Bob Chill]

Mitch, you don't need twitter or the euro to know we're in trouble. Just gaze on this and close the shades

 

[WxUSAF]

Barf

[mitchnick]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mitch, you don't need twitter or the euro to know we're in trouble. Just gaze on this and close the shades

 

It's the Euro forecast that is the most depressing part. Hopefully,  we get a few events.  Anything will seem better than last year. ..I know, I know! Not saying much.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's the Euro forecast that is the most depressing part. Hopefully,  we get a few events.  Anything will seem better than last year. ..I know, I know! Not saying much.

The real kick in the nards will come when a fat -ao/nao sets up but all it does is lock in pac air cuz the goa vortex parks and pumps for weeks on end. 

I'm honestly not impressed by anything I see irt to winter right now. Far to early to worry much but I'm starting off with very low expectations. I'm pretty sure I'll top the 6" total I recorded last year but the way I envision it happening may not even require a shovel. 

[WVclimo]

I guess if we are looking at La Nina this winter, we should be hoping that it gets into moderate territory ?

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_lanina

[showmethesnow]

48 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I guess if we are looking at La Nina this winter, we should be hoping that it gets into moderate territory ?

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_lanina

I always thought it was weak Ninas. Chart below shows that above normal snowfall seasons have been mostly relegated to a weak Nina - neg Nao combo since 1950. May have to go back into the records and look over things. Of course i could always ask @mitchnick who is our resident expert in historical data.

Of course this is contingent on getting blocking.

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I always thought it was weak Ninas. Chart below shows that above normal snowfall seasons have been mostly relegated to a weak Nina - neg Nao combo since 1950. May have to go back into the records and look over things. Of course i could always ask @mitchnick who is our resident expert in historical data.

Of course this is contingent on getting blocking.

Thought I would add this chart as well. As you can see there has been a lot of fail during any phase of a La Nina. The lack of seeing anything show up in the strong Nina and -Nao I think is more a fact that the combination is hard to come by.

 

[Bob Chill]

Time to start rooting for a 95-96 redux

[showmethesnow]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Time to start rooting for a 95-96 redux

Nothing says Fail incoming like when we start pulling out the 95-96 redux going into the winter. The fact that we are using it so soon in early September should really worry the winter weenies. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Nothing says Fail incoming like when we start pulling out the 95-96 redux going into the winter. The fact that we are using it so soon in early September should really worry the winter weenies. 

 

I see nothing new to report in here...This is why I think hurricane season will be the only time I keep track of weather models, lol But at least we can set the bar so low that it's gonna be harder to get disappointed or surprised when multiple storms go "poof".

[Bob Chill]

42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see nothing new to report in here...This is why I think hurricane season will be the only time I keep track of weather models, lol But at least we can set the bar so low that it's gonna be harder to get disappointed or surprised when multiple storms go "poof".

Some of the upper level patterns being tossed around by seasonal models don't even support digital snow. I'm not biting on anything though. Weather will be weather regardless of long range data points. 

I'm not excited about the prospects for winter as a whole right now but that can easily change in November. I don't think we're going to see many data points before Nov that lead us to believe a big winter is inbound. Once we get a peek at late Nov/early Dec there could be encouraging signs at reasonable leads. Climate models mostly track enso and ssta patterns. Expect some ugly panels this fall before we get into our normal 15 day fantasy talk. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see nothing new to report in here...This is why I think hurricane season will be the only time I keep track of weather models, lol But at least we can set the bar so low that it's gonna be harder to get disappointed or surprised when multiple storms go "poof".

You rang?

[showmethesnow]

All this Doom and Gloom in here the last week or two has gotten me down. So I thought I would try to throw in some positive vibes in for this coming winter.

With 2 major Hurricanes striking this year, one in Florida and one in Texas, I was curious if we had ever seen that before. Looking back I found two instances. In 1909 we saw a Cat 3 strike Texas on July 21 and a Cat 3 strike Florida on Oct 11. Also in 1919 we saw a Cat 3 strike Texas on Sept 14 and a Cat 4 strike Florida on Sept 10.

Dusting off my Kocin books (and it was very dusty indeed because I never pulled it out last year with the crap winter we had), I checked to see what the following winters were like. Somewhat promising to say the least compared to what we are looking at now.

 

1919-20

Seasonal Snowfall

DC 16.4 inches

Baltimore 10.3 inches

Philly 23..2 inches

New York 47.6 inches

Boston 73.4 inches

I have thrown in other locations outside of the region to get a feel how the the East Coast fared as a whole during the winter. I would have thrown in Richmond as well but it was not available. 

DC comes in with close to average snowfall but Baltimore comes in substantially under. But when comparing DC and Philly snow totals, though below their season norm, leads me to believe that either the Baltimore data may be off or that Baltimore fell in No Man's Land during the winter. Looking at the East coast totals, where NY and north did very well, one would think that there may have also been some opportunities for our region that we were never able to cash in on.

I also found one noteworthy storm that winter. On Feb. 4th a dual low Coastal formed off of OBX and slowly drifted out to sea. Our region stayed in the mix zone basically but we were still good for 4 inch totals in our southern regions to a high of 10 inches Fredrick county north and west. Just across the MD/PA line from Frederick county saw 20+ inches. 

 All in all, not exactly a banner year for our region but compared to last year it would be an improvement.

 

1909-10

Seasonal Snowfall

DC 20.0 inches

Baltimore 31.8 inches

Philly 36.1 inches

New York 27.2 inches

Boston 37.0 inches

Now I would take 09-10 in a heartbeat when you consider we may be looking at a La Nina winter. Looking at the snowfall totals it looks as if this was a mid-Atlantic winter. Dc is roughly at norm snowfall and Baltimore is over. 

We also saw two major storms during this winter. One, was a Christmas day special, with a Midwest low and a southern low initially, that looks as if we saw a hybrid Miller B form off the Eastern Shore, rapidly intensify and move up the slot. NE MD got pummeled, obliterated, wiped off the map.  We saw the 4 inch line running from the southern portions of MD with ever increasing amounts north and east. Portions of NE Md and northern De saw totals over 20 inches. The second storm occurred January 14 with an initial Midwest low that Miller B'ed to the mouth of the Chesapeake and moved NE out to sea. Totals with that were what we typical see, with the higher amounts seen to the north and west. 4 inch totals seen onto the eastern short and southern Md with increasing amounts until we saw 10+ inches into Frederick county.

 

 

Anyway, hope this brightened up the prospects some for this winter. If it didn't, I guess I can start throwing out Acorn counts, Squirrel activity or even wooly caterpillar forecasts.

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I always thought it was weak Ninas. Chart below shows that above normal snowfall seasons have been mostly relegated to a weak Nina - neg Nao combo since 1950. May have to go back into the records and look over things. Of course i could always ask @mitchnick who is our resident expert in historical data.

Of course this is contingent on getting blocking.

11 on the Nina side, 13 on the Nino, 1 neutral.

But do notice that only one on the Nina side when it was beyond -1.0

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Thought I would add this chart as well. As you can see there has been a lot of fail during any phase of a La Nina. The lack of seeing anything show up in the strong Nina and -Nao I think is more a fact that the combination is hard to come by.

 

There are 12 of those 30 on the Nino side as well.

I think when you put DCA and snowfall total in the same sentence, fail is the default setting.

[WinterWxLuvr]

With all the gloom and doom talk going on, ask yourself one question.  How much worse than the past two years do you think it can really be.

Outside of one 48 hour window in 15-16, and one 12 hour window last year, it has been awful.  I feel very confident that, at least in my view, this winter will be a step up from those two.  Normal snow here is somewhere in the 25-35" inch range depending on the stats you use.  I can see a below normal snowfall winter that I could like a whole lot better than the past two.

 

 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With all the gloom and doom talk going on, ask yourself one question.  How much worse than the past two years do you think it can really be.

Outside of one 48 hour window in 15-16, and one 12 hour window last year, it has been awful.  I feel very confident that, at least in my view, this winter will be a step up from those two.  Normal snow here is somewhere in the 25-35" inch range depending on the stats you use.  I can see a below normal snowfall winter that I could like a whole lot better than the past two.

 

 

It is still to early for me to get really worked up and panicky over the prospects of a Winter Fail. Now if things still look dire in November or even December then it will be a different story. But for the record and with no facts to base it upon, I actually have a good feeling about this winter.

[aldie 22]

I kinda prefer it to be 90 right now instead of 70...you know what I mean

[WinterWxLuvr]

40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I kinda prefer it to be 90 right now instead of 70...you know what I mean

I do.  But the fact that Jan is 4 months away it's a little less concerning.  If it was this far below normal in early Nov. that would worry me.

[nw baltimore wx]

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I do.  But the fact that Jan is 4 months away it's a little less concerning.  If it was this far below normal in early Nov. that would worry me.

Like snow in October.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Like snow in October.

Remember in 79, at least i think it was then, when I lived in Owings Mills we saw close to half a foot of wet October snow . After that i was psyched for a big winter. Needless to say I think that winter was one of the bigger Fails I have experienced.

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Remember in 79, at least i think it was then, when I lived in Owings Mills we saw close to half a foot of wet October snow . After that i was psyched for a big winter. Needless to say I think that winter was one of the bigger Fails I have experienced.

Yep, I remember it well. In PG county we got a slushy inch or so on grass and trees. Not much else to remember that winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11-12 is another good example of early snow = crap winter.

[mitchnick]

Snow in November at BWI is usually a good sign for the winter snowfall numbers. Not necessarily a lot of accumulating snow, just some snow. October, naso good imho.

[BTRWx]

The more data I find to support winter anticipation, the more two-sided it seems!  How can this summer's 500mb pattern match 2009 so well when sst anomalies don't even come close?!  I'm stunned!

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, BTRWx said:

The more data I find to support winter anticipation, the more two-sided it seems!  How can this summer's 500mb pattern match 2009 so well when sst anomalies don't even come close?!  I'm stunned!

 

IMO, that's a good match only in the US. You've got some big differences in the North Atlantic and in the Kazakhstan region.

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

IMO, that's a good match only in the US. You've got some big differences in the North Atlantic and in the Kazakhstan region.

IMO though there are some similarities the one difference I do see is a big one and that is in the Arctic. With lower heights extending from west of Alaska through the pole over to almost Europe cross polar flow is nonexistence. 09 had higher heights that spanned from N America through the pole to the eastern Hemisphere allowing for cross polar flow. Think when we roll this years summer pattern forward into the fall and winter it will evolve much differently then what we saw in 09.

[psuhoffman]

On 9/9/2017 at 11:17 AM, Bob Chill said:

Time to start rooting for a 95-96 redux

This^^^

I agree it looks pretty bad right now. Too many big drivers are looking wrong. But I'm just not one to wallow so for me when things look like this I will prepare myself for the likely outcome but find those anamolous years that fit and hope for the miracle save. There are usually fluke decent outcomes in most analog sets even the crappy ones. And when that fails I fall back on rooting for one fluke event which can happen in any year. I just can't spend months on end being down about something I can't control. But all that said it does look bleak right now. 

[RickinBaltimore]

Just out of curiousity, what are we looking at temps wise overall for the upcoming winter?

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This^^^

I agree it looks pretty bad right now. Too many big drivers are looking wrong. But I'm just not one to wallow so for me when things look like this I will prepare myself for the likely outcome but find those anamolous years that fit and hope for the miracle save. There are usually fluke decent outcomes in most analog sets even the crappy ones. And when that fails I fall back on rooting for one fluke event which can happen in any year. I just can't spend months on end being down about something I can't control. But all that said it does look bleak right now. 

Yes, weather will be weather. 13-14 comes up often because the high latitude pattern was fairly hostile and we couldn't stop winning. It happens. Things don't look like they are breaking our way right now but it is only Sept. Literally 2 full months away before having any real idea about what early winter may look like. The only thing we need to avoid is a persistent GOA vortex/pac NW trough. It's unfortunate that this feature is starting to show up on seasonal guidance but again, it's only Sept. 

My early guess is winter as a whole will be fairly close to normal temp wise. Hedging slightly above probably makes the most sense. Snow totals require too much luck so guesses there are either lucky or unlucky.