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Winter 2017-18 Disco


Bob Chill

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

13/14 was neutral and all of the typical indices looked like carp, but that winter turned out great

Yea, we blew our anomalous luck load for the next 10 years with that winter. Get ready for another single digit snowfall year. It's coming. 

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13 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, we blew our anomalous luck load for the next 10 years with that winter. Get ready for another single digit snowfall year. It's coming. 

I'll run with the "who the he!! really knows at this point" postulate and adjust come fall, or late fall, or even winter if need be! Lol Early gut call (now there's some science for you) will rest on blocking, or lack thereof, as holding the key to our fate with other indices hovering near neutral. Weak sun will definitely be in our corner. That and the now likely east QBO are a decent combo for the needed blocking.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Using IAD data (only available from 62-63) and the list of neutral years (-0.5 to 0.5), I have an average of 25.5 and a median of 24.3.  

I think I'll say I don't agree with Bobs prediction of single digit snow this year.

This is the year legit winter time NA blocking returns

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One problem with seasonal is we don't have enough sample size to get much statistical significance from the results. I'm not poo pooing it. There are some definite conclusions. Modoki nino good. Strong East based not so much. Nina and west qbo bad combo. But there are more variables that play off each other then a 50-100 year sample can account for and come up with good data conclusions for each combo. The results are too skewed by flukes or anamolies when one factory dominates the others and throws off the typical results for a given set of peramiters perhaps. 

That said, when we start to see multiple bad indices showing up then it could spell trouble.  Not there yet but losing the prospect of a west based nino is one duck falling on the wrong side of the ledger. Still have time to see other factors line up better. 

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. 

If we can get the warming to migrate to the Pole, then we'll get some blocking (assuming, of course, the warmth can find its way into the higher regions of the atmosphere.)

And don't stay away from the Board for 5 years only to come back with a weenie, heart breaking post!   :P

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2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. 

That's exactly what happened this past winter.  Any signals for next winter will likely be nearly nonexistent until at least autumn and until one of the long-range signals un-neutralize.

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On 6/26/2017 at 8:20 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. 

Exactly why I'd like a neutral-cold neutral.  I want a colder winter.  Couldn't care less about big snowstorms.

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This seasonally cool pattern reminds me of the first week of July 2009, but the big difference unfortunately is at 500mb where the upper levels are nearly opposite...

I would upload images if the file size restrictions weren't so low!

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using BWI numbers not all winters were mild after a strong el nino winter...1983-84 was colder than normal...1973-74 was a degree above the norm...1998-99 almost three above...2016-17 was 6.5 above...years after some not as strong el nino's like 1958-59, 2003-04 and 2010-11 were below the norm...

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CANSIPs has a nice Dec look. It's been consistent with the aleutian low/-nao type of look for a couple cycles now. This isn't a big cold pattern but it's certainly a decent winter wx pattern for the MA. Storm track would be just fine with this. All 3 winter months look decent. Feb is a big -EPO look. We know how that can deliver. 

cansips_z500a_nhem_6.png

 

cansips_z500a_nhem_8.png

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately 07-08 and 08-09 are better solar analogs. 2019-2020 is lookin pretty sweet tho. 10 year anniversary as an added bonus. 

I think even 1 more step back from that when considering where we are currently and when the last time the same value was reached while having a downtrend.  I really jumped the gun.

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On 7/9/2017 at 6:17 PM, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately 07-08 and 08-09 are better solar analogs. 2019-2020 is lookin pretty sweet tho. 10 year anniversary as an added bonus. 

Still, 17/18 is pretty low solar output and an east QBO should finally yield us some useful blocking.....some.

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4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Never say never, I suppose.  Sure seems it's gonna take a rabbit from the hat to pull off a winter Nino.

IMG_9058.thumb.GIF.d5a7fdb729baf0c7d6d887464fb15cec.GIF

 

 

In another month, long range enso models should start painting a decent picture. ECMWF has much better skill scores than the CFS. Warm neutral seems to be the most likely scenario. 

 

ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

Latest SSTA chart definitely does not look like a healthy Nino going on right now. Looks pretty much warm neutral with little if any trend showing up the last month or so. 

 

anomnight.7.13.2017.gif

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

In another month, long range enso models should start painting a decent picture. ECMWF has much better skill scores than the CFS. Warm neutral seems to be the most likely scenario. 

 

ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

Latest SSTA chart definitely does not look like a healthy Nino going on right now. Looks pretty much warm neutral with little if any trend showing up the last month or so. 

 

anomnight.7.13.2017.gif

I'd be ok with a warm neutral.  I want to roll the dice with something in the -0.5 to 0.5 range.

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On 7/9/2017 at 8:27 PM, BTRWx said:

I think even 1 more step back from that when considering where we are currently and when the last time the same value was reached while having a downtrend.  I really jumped the gun.

You're welcome!

June_15_to_July_14_2017_500mb_anomaly.gi

June_15_to_July_14_2006_500mb_anomaly.gi

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