mdhokie Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm pretty sure I remember someone smart saying GFS is usually too cold. Sounds like the track has been refined. Using NAM thermals looks like hello sleet storm. Hopefully we dont dry slot and snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Fully expect the 6z and 12z GFS to keep ticking West. I hope this is just a mere wobble, but I'm telling you, I can't shake the feeling that I'll be watching it rain/sleet all night on Monday. Yeah. Def not staying up for the Euro. Good luck to all who do tho. Starting to feel this one slip from us in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah. Def not staying up for the Euro. Good luck to all who do tho. Starting to feel this one slip from us in the cities.Don't give up yet... If the trend stops yes you're done. But if it continues (and I see no reason to think it won't, we will all be very happy... yes, mixing will happen, but can you deal with losing .3" to sleet with 1.75" QPF and thundersnow... I'll take that any daySent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said: Don't give up yet... If the trend stops yes you're done. But if it continues (and I see no reason to think it won't, we will all be very happy... yes, mixing will happen, but can you deal with losing .3" to sleet with 1.75" QPF and thundersnow... I'll take that any day Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk You are like some snow angel sent by the weenie gods! Hopefully you are correct and we have a miller B that transfers in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You are like some snow angel sent by the weenie gods! Hopefully you are correct and we have a miller B that transfers in Georgia. That's never going to happen. See my post in the main thread for max upside... yes some people are going to lose out... just the nature of miller Bs...i just don't think DC proper is toast yetSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I can smell the dumpster fires here in AA county. Oh well.. now we're stuck with worthless cold in spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 UK and Euro save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I believe in microclimates more than gradients Reagan National Airport (DCA)=7.5", Dulles Airport (IAD)=10.5", Baltimore Airport (BWI)=12.5", Fairfax=8.5", Burke=8.7", Woodbridge/Manassas=8.2", Reston=9.5", Rockville=11.5", Frederick (MD)=14.0", Shenandoah=9.0", Remington=8.6", Alexandria (Fairfax County)=8.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I can smell the dumpster fires here in AA county. Oh well.. now we're stuck with worthless cold in spring lol. Don't be down. The central and northern part of our county still do well on the current GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I won't lie, if the ukie verified I would still enjoy it. It would be a storm to remember even if it steals most of our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Gut-wrenching........And another westward trend and I-95 is cut off completely. Lucy in the sky with footballs Lucy in the sky with footballs Lucy in the sky with football's Ohhhhhhh noooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Time to see what happens. Im still excited about the whole thing. Normally with a track right off the coast mostly everyone west of the bay does well. So far every run of every model has me at least at 5", even using the kuchera map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Perhaps the deep south can thank agw for preventing such snow anomalies as 1993. The evolution here keeps trending so close to that analog except for snow in the south. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Tough to sleep over this, so I compiled some famous maps in 6 hour intrervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That was one hell of a storm. Too bad I was too young to remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AlaskaETC said: That was one hell of a storm. Too bad I was too young to remember it. What's too young? Chances are we're the same age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What's too young? Chances are we're the same age... I was 3 at the time. I wasn't living in the area at the time, but I am sure I would have taken a interest in it if I was old enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AlaskaETC said: I was 3 at the time. I wasn't living in the area at the time, but I am sure I would have taken a interest in it if I was old enough. Guilty (though 2 months prior to 4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Guilty (though 2 months prior to 4) I'm sure I am not the only one, but I was infatuated with the Weather Channel growing up. It was about the only thing I watched. I remember watching the coverage on the '96 Blizzard. Might be nostalgia, but they certainly captured the uniqueness of that storm (and others) back in the 90s before everything went downhill for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, AlaskaETC said: I'm sure I am not the only one, but I was infatuated with the Weather Channel growing up. It was about the only thing I watched. I remember watching the coverage on the '96 Blizzard. Might be nostalgia, but they certainly captured the uniqueness of that storm (and others) back in the 90s before everything went downhill for them. lol, my family never had cable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This will be an intense storm with very tight gradients. Worth every minute we invest in it. I mean, for me there's no payoff except to follow the storm and its results. But I see pressures steadily falling tonight in the central GOMEX and you've got to look at the large picture here, a 1014 mb low now will be a 970 to 980 mb fully developed winter storm near Long Island in just 36-42 hours. That means it will deepen one millibar every hour for almost two days. And it will suck in a fairly vigorous smaller storm now dropping snow in IA, n IL. Heights will crash during the phase. Almost everything that happens should be good, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 SPC sure seems quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nam looks nice at 18. Nice wedge built in down to my southwest. Also radar returns look like they would be better during this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This will be an intense storm with very tight gradients. Worth every minute we invest in it. I mean, for me there's no payoff except to follow the storm and its results. But I see pressures steadily falling tonight in the central GOMEX and you've got to look at the large picture here, a 1014 mb low now will be a 970 to 980 mb fully developed winter storm near Long Island in just 36-42 hours. That means it will deepen one millibar every hour for almost two days. And it will suck in a fairly vigorous smaller storm now dropping snow in IA, n IL. Heights will crash during the phase. Almost everything that happens should be good, right? This will be tall order, but any chance you recall what pressure models showed leading into March 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What a list from CIPS! Individual Analogs 1. 20070215/0000 2. 20050301/1200 3. 19930314/0600 4. 19950205/0600 5. 20140214/0600 6. 19930213/1200 7. 20050211/0000 8. 20060212/1800 9. 20110401/1800 10. 20110127/0600 11. 19800314/1800 12. 19830208/0600 13. 19980322/1200 14. 19840131/1200 15. 19900321/0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 28 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This will be an intense storm with very tight gradients. Worth every minute we invest in it. I mean, for me there's no payoff except to follow the storm and its results. But I see pressures steadily falling tonight in the central GOMEX and you've got to look at the large picture here, a 1014 mb low now will be a 970 to 980 mb fully developed winter storm near Long Island in just 36-42 hours. That means it will deepen one millibar every hour for almost two days. And it will suck in a fairly vigorous smaller storm now dropping snow in IA, n IL. Heights will crash during the phase. Almost everything that happens should be good, right? Good take as always. I enjoy your posts thoroughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yikes..glad I went to bed early. In my bones I'm feeling 3-6" with lots of mix where I sit. Lots of work today on this Monday so thankfully my brain will be distracted from the impending dumpster fire. Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol. This morning's AFD is really good, and I love the Goldilocks zone. 000 FXUS61 KLWX 130800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Same story...new night...as tricky forecast continues for the I-95 corridor...where lots of conflicting signals remain among the guidance suites. Furthermore...even small changes in the track of the coastal low will lead to extreme shifts in snow totals (and thus impact) where the transition line sets up. Thus...believe it is appropriate to not make drastic changes based on any one forecast cycle. Coastal low will begin to develop across the Carolina coastline later this afternoon...as cyclogenesis is induced in response to potent digging shortwave. Low begins to track northward through the overnight...intensifying off the DelMarVa coastline by 12z Tuesday. Timing will be everything...if intensification is slower than currently forecast...amounts would be less across the area. Notable westward shift in latest guidance from ECMWF/GFS families...which is somewhat concerning for snow totals along the I- 95 corridor. Additionally...large westward shift in 850-700 mb 1540 thickness values...suggesting mixed precipitation (sleet or rain) could cut down on totals along the I-95 corridor. Thus...have tapered snowfall amounts back a bit across these areas. Based on this...and in coordination with surrounding offices...have opted to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for the counties that were still under the Winter Storm Watch...as confidence in warning criteria being met is too low at this time. Added Spotsylvania and Charles county to the Advisory as they qualify for the lower criteria for commute timing. The morning shift can always reevaluate and see if upgrades are warranted in certain areas...and if headlines need to be extended into Calvert...St. Marys...and King George. The heaviest snow is expected from 00z-15z Tuesday...and it is strongly recommend that motorists stay of the road during this time. Confidence is much higher in major winter storm west of I-95 (especially from northern VA up through the PA border). This is the sweet spot (or Goldilocks Zone)...where QPF will be maximized in the deformation zone and ptype will be all snow. Increased totals a bit across this area with a foot are more across portions of Washington, Frederick (MD), Carroll, N Baltimore, N Harford counties. Fully expect snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour overnight as strong lift develops through the dendritic growth zone. Bulk of snowfall accumulations will begin to wind down from southwest to northeast as wraparound precipitation pulls away from the area Tuesday morning. However...upper low will slowly traverse the area...so scattered snow showers remain possible through Wednesday. Very cold overnight temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with snowpack over the area. Additionally, melting during the day (with mid-March sun) combined with freezing overnight will led to slick spots redeveloping. It is imperative to note that uncertainty continues to be tremendous with regards to the location of the transition line. As I have written the past few nights...our 10-50-90 products illustrate this well. As it currently stands...for DC/Balt...10th percentile is 1- 4...50th percentile is 4-8...and 90th percentile is 10-16. Thus, it is important to continue to follow the forecast as changes are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Models were pretty bad overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.