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March Obs/Disco Thread


arlwx

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per NWS growing season has officially started for many of us...looks like beets and radishes are going in this weekend!

 

Also, nice burst of convection moving NE from NOVA this AM...could be the first thunder for DC this year shortly.

I put beets in saturday. Cucumbers too, but in pots that I can take in and outside as needed until they sprout, then will transfer. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomatoes and peppers are in our mobile greenhouse.  Eggplants and jalapenos are planted but will hopefully come up soon.  

Sweet! The beets will def love the current damp weather pattern. 

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43 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Question. Is the rest of the afternoon supposed to have pop up type storms or is there any chance it will get more organized? Asking as I am headed out to Round Hill with my daughter to ride and want to make sure that a 45 min. drive does not result in staying in the barn. Thanks!

Just pop up stuff.  Looks like NOVA is the place to be today...they broke out into the sun earliest and have temps in the low/mid 70s.  I believe the convective temp from the 12z IAD sounding was 74, so you should be fine.

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33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just pop up stuff.  Looks like NOVA is the place to be today...they broke out into the sun earliest and have temps in the low/mid 70s.  I believe the convective temp from the 12z IAD sounding was 74, so you should be fine.

How does one figure out convective temperature?

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On 3/28/2017 at 3:44 PM, George BM said:

How does one figure out convective temperature?

Good question.  When a weather balloon is sent up, it allows you to calculate various parameters (CAPE, Lapse Rates, etc.)  Convective Temp (convT) is important to look at too, since it lets you know what surface temp you need to reach for thunderstorms to develop.  For example:  if the convective temp is 85 degrees, but you only get to 82 degrees, then it's not likely you'll experience robust convection.  Of course there are mesoscale features (topography, leftover boundary from nocturnal convection) that can cause sporadic activity but it's not good when you don't meet or exceed the ConvT for the day (see bloew today's 00z IAD sounding).

 

IAD_Convt.thumb.PNG.4ec4a64f631ac606d8f47a548353bc56.PNG

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Eh...careful on associating convective temp as some sort of be all/end all for storm forecasting. Often convective temp is NOT reached when storms and severe storms occur. Convective temp is more useful for places like FL that get "airmass" thunderstorms that occur without any major forcing. That's rarely how we get storms.

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Eh...careful on associating convective temp as some sort of be all/end all for storm forecasting. Often convective temp is NOT reached when storms and severe storms occur. Convective temp is more useful for places like FL that get "airmass" thunderstorms that occur without any major forcing. That's rarely how we get storms.



This is correct. Convective temp is not as useful in places that typically don't have a deep moist environment, but it is useful in combination with certain synoptic features such as Dry Lines, surface troughs and positioning within deep mean trough or upper low. Also, extreme heat can be useful for exceeding convective temp as is the case forecasting in the Desert SW, particularly during monsoon season. Orographic elements such as mountains can aid in differential heating over areas of the country. One example is West Texas and SE AZ where I forecast. There are many times the starting elevation is above any cap being shown by a local sounding, so convective temp is naturally lower and doesn't take as much for stuff to billow up and go. If you ever wonder why the SW US gets creamed with thunderstorms and crazy lightning during Monsoon season, convective temp is typically lower due to little or no cap, intense heating under Western Ridge and monsoonal trough nearby. By the afternoon, everything goes boom and you get intense convection over the Sonora/Huachuca's/Sierra Madre plateau for many hours. Pending depth of the regional moisture layer will determine severity of convection with tropical moisture flux from systems off Pacific leading to high potential for flooding, sometimes historic depending on the training aspect of the moisture field.

Florida is also a good example due to the deep maritime air mass, especially in warm season combined with sea/land breeze interaction. Ever wonder why it rains all the time in Florida in the summer? Deep moisture, mesoscale forcing from sea breeze, sometimes convergence of both Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze as well as little to no cap all day with intense differential heating over a land mass. The result, storms go boom. These are just examples I deal with on a daily. It can be both fun when you watch it go and see the span of lightning, and it can be very challenging at times since what I forecast for certainly doesn't want to have to deal with area convection.


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