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March Obs/Disco Thread


arlwx

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like flakes are in order tonight according to NWS. ..80% chance for a mix.  Definitely would be marginal air to work with but let's keep this late winter going .

More interested in tomorrow night/Sunday morning. Could surprise a bit. Sort of a Norlun type deal. Could be an inch or 2 if things work out ideally.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw and surprisingly yes 1-2" Saturday night

banter.  you should take that info to the panic room, the long range is for basketball,  i think the obs thread should start discussing golf and auto racing. so that leaves the panic room open for another dead a$$ snow. :P:P 

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As long as it's 1/4 Mile racing ...none of that circle/oval crap..lol

 

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yesss.

Drag racing is where its at. That round and round crap is a total bore.

easy now. i've did a bit oval at hagerstown, but a lot of 1/4 at 75/80, cecil , mason, buds, and some 1/8 at the duck. even did some left right at summit and the old 75/80 go cart track.  good times but then i found that golf was way cheaper.   

  gator nationals are this weekend who u like in TF , PS, FC, /

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19 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

0Z models so far are unanimous for a heavy stripe of precip over a narrow region of our subforum early Sunday AM (that would be the Norlun verifying, right?). The orientation of the stripe is also unanimous-- NNW to SSE. The only difference is if the center of that stripe lands in VA or MD. 

Surface too warm for accumulation except for the highest elevations.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree....Hrrr already picking up on the Catoctins getting hit decent.  Temps start crashing around 7pm or so tonight in Northern Md. Probably a nowcasting situation.  Wouldnt be surprised if Northern Carroll joins in on some accumulation if we get rates.

It's going to be a relatively narrow band nw to se that gets a surprise snow tonight. The models right now want that to be just west of us through Frederick county down into the DC metro. Temps will be an issue outside the higher elevations but these inverted troughs can be fun and it wouldn't shock me if someone gets under a convective band and gets a quick 2-3" even in the metro areas. These things are one way to still get a surprise because they are like summer lines of thunderstorms and hard to predict. 

Looking at the setup it's actually close to what caused the Palm Sunday surprise blizzard here. But the limiting factor this time is the duel lows off the coast. The one to the northeast pinwheels the southern one and so it can't stall as long. If that northeast low wasn't there this was close to possibly being a big surprise.  This is the time of year that type of thing can be juiced up. But getting the perfect setup like that is so rare. But this was close. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's going to be a relatively narrow band nw to se that gets a surprise snow tonight. The models right now want that to be just west of us through Frederick county down into the DC metro. Temps will be an issue outside the higher elevations but these inverted troughs can be fun and it wouldn't shock me if someone gets under a convective band and gets a quick 2-3" even in the metro areas. These things are one way to still get a surprise because they are like summer lines of thunderstorms and hard to predict. 

Looking at the setup it's actually close to what caused the Palm Sunday surprise blizzard here. But the limiting factor this time is the duel lows off the coast. The one to the northeast pinwheels the southern one and so it can't stall as long. If that northeast low wasn't there this was close to possibly being a big surprise.  This is the time of year that type of thing can be juiced up. But getting the perfect setup like that is so rare. But this was close. 

You should start a thread with that kind of positive attitude!

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You should start a thread with that kind of positive attitude!

It's going to be a nowcast kind of thing. Models aren't going to place the exact location of the banding along the trough perfectly and it will be the areas lucky enough to get under those bands that get anything.  I figured we could just handle it in here but if others want a thread that's fine. 

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23 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Gfs just came in extremely juicy. .75 for our area.

Our stakes are even higher given our elevation. If the banding does set up over us we could get a very decent relatively unexpected snow.  I've been keeping an eye on this feature the last few days. But it's a nowcast type thing with the banding but the trough has stayed in our area and trended wetter and more dynamic the last 24 hours. We are in the game. If this breaks right I could see places with elevation that end up under the band with 3-6".  Even in the metro I wouldn't be shocked to see some 2-3" numbers where that banding sets up. This is fun to me because it's no risk. If it busts so what we have no expectations. If someone ends up with some scenic wet snow pictures to end the year it's a bonus. 

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2 minutes ago, cae said:

I'm hugging the 3k NAM for now.  The trends (below) look good.  What is causing this?  It looks sort of like a norlun.

tCbCqEj.gif

Inverted trough. They can be dynamic over a very small stripe of real estate. The euro has had it for 3 days at least but the stripe kept shifting east as the lead shortened. I've been mostly ignoring it because surface temps in my hood never really get close but who knows. Weirder things have happened. Northern tier above say 800' could get an upside surprise. It's cold off the deck so higher elevations have a big advantage at getting cold enought for a paste bomb. 

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I actually wouldn't be surprised to see modeled totals increase in the 18z suite as we get closer to the backend snow potential - there seems to be a fair amount of moisture being picked up at low levels as the low exits the coast, and the air behind the front is cold enough as well. Still thinking a wet non sticking trace is most likely for me, but wouldn't be shocked to wake up to 2 inches or maybe even a little bit more.

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Inverted trough. They can be dynamic over a very small stripe of real estate. The euro has had it for 3 days at least but the stripe kept shifting east as the lead shortened. I've been mostly ignoring it because surface temps in my hood never really get close but who knows. Weirder things have happened. Northern tier above say 800' could get an upside surprise. It's cold off the deck so higher elevations have a big advantage at getting cold enought for a paste bomb. 

Agree but some of the guidance is putting out .75-1" qpf in a relatively short period of time under the banding where the inverted trough sets up. Get under one of those intense bands and anything can happen. Those kinds of rates can pull down cold air. Seen it happen before. But it's a nowcast thing. Could be fun for someone though. 

Do you (or anyone else) mind posting the euro qpf when it comes out. I'm curious where it places the bands tonight. I don't have access right now. Thanks. 

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52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Inverted trough. They can be dynamic over a very small stripe of real estate. The euro has had it for 3 days at least but the stripe kept shifting east as the lead shortened. I've been mostly ignoring it because surface temps in my hood never really get close but who knows. Weirder things have happened. Northern tier above say 800' could get an upside surprise. It's cold off the deck so higher elevations have a big advantage at getting cold enought for a paste bomb. 

Thanks.  Looks like another situation where every foot of elevation counts.  We still have a good amount of snow/ice cover, which I'd imagine could help with accumulation even if surface temps aren't below freezing.  Then again there's not much left, so the initial wave of rain could do some damage to it.

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Euro has a 1" qpf bullseye over the blue ridge between 0-6z and a .5 bullseye over Columbia between 6z-12. Most everyone gets .50 during the panels. My yard looks like around .7

Snow jackpot along catoctins and northern tier but could easily be 2" of potatoes in the md burbs if it breaks right. 

Temps in the low to mid 30's for most of us between 6z-12z

I'm on my phone so I can't post panels. 

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