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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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12 hours ago, Dan said:

Absolutely horrible what's happened in Manchester, UK tonight.  My heart and prayers go out to all the people that have lost their lives or were there when this happened.  Just horrible, especially with all the kids that were there.  Just awful.

Im an uber progressive but everytime this happens it makes me wanna put on my cowboy hat, hit the nuke button, and put up 200ft steel walls. P*sses me the eff off and we continue to throw out the "our way of life will prevail" statements. We are currently not doing enough and after watching a Vice special on ISIS, they are practically laughing at our tactics. 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There were even better Sandy runs for BOS. A few GFS runs and NOGAPS runs brought it into BOS harbor LOL. That literally would have flooded downtown.

whenever that sort of thing goes down and we're left with a plethora of different modeled solutions that ultimately wouldn't verify, I'm not left with any sense of wonder as to why x-y-z model had that erroneous solution, I'm left wondering when the day will come that the "physical possible" becomes the physically plausible and goes on to actually happen. 

i sometimes wonder if natural and disaster models exist, specifically to elucidate what is not impossible, be it at the Pentagon and/or for FEMA and the like. Like, they know ..you know...  They probably have parameters that sucker and had it drill a Category 4 up Buzzard's Bay headed for Concord NH at 60 mph - simply a matter of waiting on the day those parameters happen...  

heh. point being, if the models hooked Sandy into NJ or SNE ... really could have happened either way... and the fact of the matter is, the real real lowest common denominator between the two geographies is that both have only existed to modern era for all of couple hundred years.  and if the models can bring a system like that into Boston Harbor on any given run... my suspicion is that it's happened before at some point over the last million years of EC history... 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

whenever that sort of thing goes down and we're left with a plethora of different modeled solutions that ultimately wouldn't verify, I'm not left with any sense of wonder as to why x-y-z model had that erroneous solution, I'm left wondering when the day will come that the "physical possible" becomes the physically plausible and goes on to actually happen. 

i sometimes wonder if natural and disaster models exist, specifically to elucidate what is not impossible, be it at the Pentagon and/or for FEMA and the like. Like, they know ..you know...  They probably have parameters that sucker and had it drill a Category 4 up Buzzard's Bay headed for Concord NH at 60 mph - simply a matter of waiting on the day those parameters happen...  

heh. point being, if the models hooked Sandy into NJ or SNE ... really could have happened either way... and the fact of the matter is, the real real lowest common denominator between the two geographies is that both have only existed to modern era for all of couple hundred years.  and if the models can bring a system like that into Boston Harbor on any given run... my suspicion is that it's happened before at some point over the last million years of EC history... 

The ol' 1000 or 10,000 (or pick your number) return rate storm is always something interesting to think about. It's kind of like the super volcano idea...you know it's happened in the past and will happen again, but we don't have any modern equivalence so we really don't spend much time thinking about it. I mean, Yellowstone super volcano will go off at some point and we're gonna have the area between Denver and Chicago as almost uninhabitable for quite a while....nevermind the consequences of losing most of our cropland in that area and the nuclear winter we'd be thrown into that make the year without a summer in 1816 look like a tropical vacation.

 

Likewise, some cat 4 will take a left hook into SNE at some point and make 1938 look kind of manageable by comparison.

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Plenty of sediment evidence of storms in the Pre-Columbus era that were likely more powerful than 1635 or 1938, so cat 4 intensity, but of course the return rate is just ridiculous. But hey, in their own way, Sandy and the October snowstorm were probably similarly rare, so who knows?  I sometimes wish I could go back in time and see satellite imagery for the 1780 hurricane (not a NE event, but incredible in its own right).

Out of curiosity, anyone know if the '54 season, which featured Carol, Edna and Hazel, had a persistent blocking pattern?

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ol' 1000 or 10,000 (or pick your number) return rate storm is always something interesting to think about. It's kind of like the super volcano idea...you know it's happened in the past and will happen again, but we don't have any modern equivalence so we really don't spend much time thinking about it. I mean, Yellowstone super volcano will go off at some point and we're gonna have the area between Denver and Chicago as almost uninhabitable for quite a while....nevermind the consequences of losing most of our cropland in that area and the nuclear winter we'd be thrown into that make the year without a summer in 1816 look like a tropical vacation.

 

Likewise, some cat 4 will take a left hook into SNE at some point and make 1938 look kind of manageable by comparison.

I can't decide which would be worse, Yellowstone eruption or a solar flare exceeding the Carrington Event. Either way, breakdown of civil society would happen pretty quickly. Yellowstone might well mean extinction.

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I can't decide which would be worse, Yellowstone eruption or a solar flare exceeding the Carrington Event. Either way, breakdown of civil society would happen pretty quickly. Yellowstone might well mean extinction.

I'm pretty sure Yellowstone wouldn't put us extinct...we wouldn't even have to leave the U.S....only part of it. But there is no doubt a lot of people would die...food shortages would be big considering we supply a ton of food to the world and a good chunk of that farmland would be rendered unusable...nevermind the nuclear winter we would struggle with. It would be pretty nasty, but we'd survive as a species with the technology we have now.

 

Here's some info on what ashfall would look like:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_91.html

 

 

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The USGS has recently put the odds of a major eruption at Yellowstone about the same as a 1km asteroid hitting the Earth.

We would also likely know well in advance due to increased seismic activity for a lengthy period leading up to it.

It seems like Mt. St. Helens is the most likely volcano to erupt in the Continental US in the near future.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm pretty sure Yellowstone wouldn't put us extinct...we wouldn't even have to leave the U.S....only part of it. But there is no doubt a lot of people would die...food shortages would be big considering we supply a ton of food to the world and a good chunk of that farmland would be rendered unusable...nevermind the nuclear winter we would struggle with. It would be pretty nasty, but we'd survive as a species with the technology we have now.

 

Here's some info on what ashfall would look like:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_91.html

 

 

Would that create a ton of baroclinic instability near the edge of the two air masses? 

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Would that create a ton of baroclinic instability near the edge of the two air masses? 

No the entire globe would cool...not just where the ashfall is. The ash doesn't really cause the cooling (though it temporarily will block/dim the sun in those spots, making it even worse for plants)...it's the massive amounts of sulfuric acid and sulfur dioxide that gets erupted into the stratosphere and beyond. It would reflect sunlight out and cause exceptional cooling...prob on the order of 8-10C globally the first year. There's debate on how long the cooling would last...some say we'd be back to only 1C below average by 30-50 years, but others say it's possible that it would trigger a new ice age if the current climate was already close enough to one. Especially since some of the numeric models have the cooling the very high in the Canadian tundra where you'd start the re-expansion of the Laurentide ice sheet if you could sustain those temps for even a few years.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

No the entire globe would cool...not just where the ashfall is. The ash doesn't really cause the cooling (though it temporarily will block/dim the sun in those spots, making it even worse for plants)...it's the massive amounts of sulfuric acid and sulfur dioxide that gets erupted into the stratosphere and beyond. It would reflect sunlight out and cause exceptional cooling...prob on the order of 8-10C globally the first year. There's debate on how long the cooling would last...some say we'd be back to only 1C below average by 30-50 years, but others say it's possible that it would trigger a new ice age if the current climate was already close enough to one. Especially since some of the numeric models have the cooling the very high in the Canadian tundra where you'd start the re-expansion of the Laurentide ice sheet if you could sustain those temps for even a few years.

Ah okay, makes sense. I wonder if we knew an eruption was imminent if we could somehow relieve some of the pressure in order to reduce the severity.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Ah okay, makes sense. I wonder if we knew an eruption was imminent if we could somehow relieve some of the pressure in order to reduce the severity.

Nah, not likely...   We're talking about titanic geological forces vaster than anything mankind can come close to generating, by several orders of magnitude.  Any Yellowstone super-cano at the brink of tolerance, is also a system with too many unknowns - in a physical sense ... you'd have to come at the system knowing all consequences ahead, which is impossible, and with more power at your disposal than the system you are trying to cap is capable of expressing.  Otherwise, accelerating the cataclysm along is all you achieve by destablizing it further. The analogy of popping a balloon is aprospos ... Only that balloon amounts to many cubic miles of pumice, rock pulverized and rock vapor, magma, and gasses expanding in all directions faster than the speed of a commercial airliner. In fact, ...there are modeled depictions for that sort of event where the top of the expulsion chamber breaches the lower ionosphere and the surrounding geography is then besieged by pyroclastic debris falls from 25 miles of altitude ... out several hundred miles in all direction...  

So, yeah...poking the ground with the giant ACME pipe to hiss off some steam would prooobabbly not work out so well for the Coyote in this case - 

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Yeah.. it's amazing how you's guyses work full bird careers for free like that ... 

j/k

speaking of natural disasters...  wow:  http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/24/us/california-landslide-scenic-highway/index.html

just looking at the aerial footage I'm taken by the question, was there anyone there at that the time - like, in transit through that quarter to half mile stretch? 

They could be eternally interred inside their crushed auto.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. it's amazing how you's guyses work full bird careers for free like that ... 

j/k

speaking of natural disasters...  wow:  http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/24/us/california-landslide-scenic-highway/index.html

just looking at the aerial footage I'm taken by the question, was there anyone there at that the time - like, in transit through that quarter to half mile stretch? 

They could be eternally interred inside their crushed auto.

Authorities say no, because the road had been closed due to an earlier (and likely much smaller) slide, and this huge one evidently gave forewarning so even the road crews cleaning slide 1 had been pulled back.

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