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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And of course MWN has been getting raked looking at their obs. But yeah, the lowest snow levels have def been in the monadnocks. 

1P1 is at 505ft too and pulled off a few hours of snow and 3/4SM. That Sunapee base cam from your link looked damn wintry.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Holy crap. 10 inches. Some of those towns there and up around Washington/Stoddard/Lempster get really high where there are houses. 

Rangeley has now gone to 34 and snow. 

yeah just saw that. Making sure we have several inches up there in the grids with that bright band coming. 

I am receiving a few 5-6" reports from around 1500 ft. So I guess 10" isn't totally out of the question in Nelson.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Not sure of a "best" way to look at that.  When I've done it for the local co-op. I've chosen the 30-year period in which the subject year is most nearly centered; for 53-54 it would be 41-70.  However, at that time the normal would've been based on the most recent full 30, that being 21-50.

GYX had a report of 4" at 1,700' somewhere in SW NH.  Mt. Monadnock would be an interesting climb this morning.

That makes sense...I wouldn't think the results should be as skewed as choosing a base period that's much further out 

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Great storm and busting for the better.  I have received 3.05" of rain as of 10am and 1/2" of snow.  Our road is washed out just above my house.  Rain turned to snow around 4-5am as temp dropped to 33.6F.  No snow below 800 feet.  .  I drove to 1300 feet and about 2-3".  Friend just west and a bit higher reported 6".  Models had about .75" to 1" liquid.  If it rains all day and evening this will be a 4" storm.  If it had been snow it would have been an epic bust...

Picture below of my road.  It evidently is impassable further up.  Also picture from neighbors horse farm at 1300 feet

brenda.jpg

road.jpg

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Regarding leaf out.  As you can see from my picture above at around 1300 feet there is little leaf out.  Leaves are really just coming out at my elevation at 1000 feet in Central NH.  Down at 500 feet the trees are in green with leaves at about 50% of full growth.  That is just my area in the NW section of the Lakes Region of NH I am sure its much greener just to my south and west...

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this is what the dork in me wanted to see happen ...  a solid snow fall followed by above normal temperatures inside of the same week's worth of days.

the mid range is ablaze in pretty warm color anomalies starting Tuesday through early Friday...  obviously at elevation, we're not getting anywhere close to the type of high temperatures we'll see even at ORH's 1,000 feet (probably max out around 82 or 85 at ORH on Thursday)... Still, mid 70s along that same arete spine by Wednesday is pretty phenomenal shenanigans.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Upton Maine. NAM did extremely well with showing the snowfall potential. Up to 2.21 of meh showers 

IMG_20170514_102404.jpg

Nice. That is right up the road from Sunday River...prob around 1600-1800 feet. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is what the dork in me wanted to see happen ...  a solid snow fall followed by above normal temperatures inside of the same week's worth of days.

the mid range is ablaze in pretty warm color anomalies starting Tuesday through early Friday...  obviously at elevation, we're not getting anywhere close to the type of high temperatures we'll see even at ORH's 1,000 feet (probably max out around 82 or 85 at ORH on Thursday)... Still, mid 70s along that same arete spine by Wednesday is pretty phenomenal shenanigans.

We've been floating around the chance for snow on here for over a week now. Not too shabby.

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45 minutes ago, mreaves said:

November through March, this would make me jealous and a bit bitter, right now though, I'm fine with missing it.  

I think it's impressive enough from a purely existential perspective, but I wonder that for the statistical point of view .. (forget one's personal druthers - hard to do in this cluster of souls, I know - )

But, appreciation for weather in general has this right up there with attention getting!

It's also amazing for another reason, ...not just that it happened in May.  How amazing is it really -

Not meaning to be troll-like but I honestly wonder what the return rate for snow is at elevation rings along the spines of those elevations.  Like 500' has a much rare number than 1,500', in turn is certainly far different that the summit of Washington (which I believe can get a flake in July from time to time...) etc...etc.  

Once ironing that out, I think (suspect really...) we'll find that this is pretty rare - talking also the 'amounts' of accumulated measure.  Like 4" to 10" along a pretty solid meso-beta scaled axis that ~ 2,000 on average; isn't like an isolated occurrence so total significance has to be on the higher side.  Could still be wrong, but that's just my experience wanting to predict the hard numbers (ha). 

  

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We've been floating around the chance for snow on here for over a week now. Not too shabby.

Yep!

I held out until about 4 days ago myself ...I was waiting on the Euro to get inside of D5 on this appeal. It did look plausible when that happened, ..back then.  Will and I shared a couple posts about it -

I think this entire ordeal has been pretty damn awesomely handled in the guidance' et al really. Perhaps not so much in the specifics, but definitely for the general cold clammy regression idea.

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55 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great storm and busting for the better.  I have received 3.05" of rain as of 10am and 1/2" of snow.  Our road is washed out just above my house.  Rain turned to snow around 4-5am as temp dropped to 33.6F.  No snow below 800 feet.  .  I drove to 1300 feet and about 2-3".  Friend just west and a bit higher reported 6".  Models had about .75" to 1" liquid.  If it rains all day and evening this will be a 4" storm.  If it had been snow it would have been an epic bust...

Picture below of my road.  It evidently is impassable further up.  Also picture from neighbors horse farm at 1300 feet

brenda.jpg

road.jpg

Nice Gene. I can't find anything close to your rain amounts though. Is that your Davis total? 

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The other thing about this is that it might not be done. 

After a the day's diurnal assault of solar radiation tends to modulate things toward more liquid ( ... so one would think...), both satellite and modeling agree: there is still that packet of intense mid troposphere dynamics diving SE just north of the Lakes. It's probably toting along it's one cold plume... That's going to cut across the area and subsume/phase into this circulation currently rolling up just off the immediate SNE coast.  ...I'm wondering if things sort of blossom tonight for several hours with renewed dynamical effectiveness -

 

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The other thing about this is that it might not be done. 

After a the day's diurnal assault of solar radiation tends to modulate things toward more liquid ( ... so one would think...), both satellite and modeling agree: there is still that packet of intense mid troposphere dynamics diving SE just north of the Lakes. It's probably toting along it's one cold plume... That's going to cut across the area and subsume/phase into this circulation currently rolling up just off the immediate SNE coast.  ...I'm wondering if things sort of blossom tonight for several hours with renewed dynamical effectiveness -

 

Yea I noticed this too Tip. Looks more interesting for western and southern section though--perhaps even being convective in nature. Eastern sections--excluding east ME--ironically look like they are drying out...Guidance in general looks to be too winter-esque with the qpf field. There's not much of a CCB to tap into this time of the year to fuel lift; as such the CCB of the circulation seems to be acting more to dry us out. When surface temps are significantly warmer in Montreal and Toronto than Portland ME, or Portsmouth NH, you know that's going to wreak havoc on a Nor'easters backside forcing...

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40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice Gene. I can't find anything close to your rain amounts though. Is that your Davis total? 

Brian,  You are totally right.  I actually just came back to this thread to make a correction.  I must be getting old.  I emptied the Stratus cylinder.  1"  Then poured the extra in the container.  Another inch.  Then had .05" left.   So it's 2.05" not 3.05"!!!  A friend in Bristol emailed me with 1.88" and some slush left to melt. 

Sorry about that.  

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