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2017 Severe Thread

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Mesoscale Discussion 1310
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of
   Maryland...Delaware...southern Pennsylvania...and southwestern New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141709Z - 141915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   severe thunderstorm watch that may be needed after 18Z or so.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorm clusters (one over central
   Pennsylvania and another newly developing over northern West
   Virginia) were gradually increasing in intensity recently.  This
   increase in coverage/intensity is likely tied to strong surface
   heating amidst a weakly capped airmass, with MUCAPE values
   approaching 3000 J/kg in some areas.  The region resides on the
   southern flank of enhanced mid-level flow (40-45 knots over
   Pennsylvania), which will likely support at least loosely organized
   and forward-propagating convection over the course of the afternoon,
   with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts near the strongest
   activity especially from northern Virginia eastward to the DelMarVa
   Peninsula later in the afternoon.

   Farther north into southern Pennsylvania/New Jersey, a nearly
   stationary frontal zone was located from near Harrisburg, PA
   east-southeastward to near Atlantic City, NJ.  Along this zone,
   backed surface winds and low-to-mid 70s F dewpoints may contribute
   to updraft rotation, especially with any storms that can develop on
   the southern flank of ongoing activity in central Pennsylvania.  The
   orientation of this boundary favors a relatively long residence time
   for updrafts that can root near the surface and move/propagate just
   to the right of the mean flow vector, and an isolated tornado cannot
   be completely ruled out given this regime.

   Convective trends are being monitored, and a severe thunderstorm
   watch may be needed later this afternoon especially if convective
   trends continue as currently observed.

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12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thunder rolling here now but I could still easily miss this storm.

missed me at work. 

radar lighting up, up north. 

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Trying to learn about enhanced stretching potential... seems like an intriguing read (since its 4 over N VA)

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 215 PM EDT

* At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or
  9 miles southeast of Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick,
  Braddock Heights, Clover Hill, Linganore-Bartonsville, Jefferson,
  Buckeystown, Rosemont, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville,
  Bloomfield, Clifton, Arnoldtown, Petersville and Middletown In
  Frederick Md.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

That line just north of MD went up quick.

Big tops already too. Mid 40k range just like that. Maybe the atmosphere is primed better than I think. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

As expected SEPA area is jackpotting. 

That's the winner so far...tops about to hit 55kft on that cluster, even some transient mid level sping.  Damn impressive.

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

As expected SEPA area is jackpotting. 

 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's the winner so far...tops about to hit 55kft on that cluster, even some transient mid level sping.  Damn impressive.

Cause thats where the WF is....

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given the flow of storms up north, seems the WF is draped over my house. 

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Looks like the activity near Harper's Ferry pushed an outflow boundary down into Montgomery, western Howard and Loudoun.  Hopefully that kicks of something good.

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Parents got smashed in South Jersey last night and are about to get hit again today.



Best storm I've ever seen, hands down. And that includes the tornado I saw in 2012 in MD. SPC nailed that supercell down here. Ping pong ball sized hail for a while, and I think I had a small tornado, or at least a circulation pass over me. Winds went nuts and shifted directions a couple times.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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30 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Best storm I've ever seen, hands down. And that includes the tornado I saw in 2012 in MD. SPC nailed that supercell down here. Ping pong ball sized hail for a while, and I think I had a small tornado, or at least a circulation pass over me. Winds went nuts and shifted directions a couple times.

 

Cool story. Wrong thread. ;)

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28 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Lol SJ was mentioned, wasn't trying to be an ass.

I was, lol. Good to see ya. :)

 

Decent rain from this lil' storm. And what sounded like some weak ducting at the end. B+

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Just south of Fredericksburg in Spotsy County....wing gusted to 59 mph, two trees down and power is out. Bright green flash then power was gone. Crazy wind and the lightning is just everywhere and very close. Legit storm!

 

Edit: there was no Severe Tstorm Warning as the line seemed to blossom overhead 

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I was, lol. Good to see ya.

 

Decent rain from this lil' storm. And what sounded like some weak ducting at the end. B+


Lol you too man, wish we'd get an event like 2012 again so I can invade down there. That's a lot to ask though, lol.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Heavy shower with no lightning popped out a waterspout on the east side of the Chesapeake... radar from TBWI looks like a small circulation got onshore:

20170715_MDwaterspout.png

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Can't believe I missed the water spout. I was fishing on the bay about 2 miles due east of rock hall. The shower got us for about 15 minutes but I never saw the water spout. We were probably on 3 miles or so north of where it was. I got the tornado warning on my phone and laughed at it. It was a harmless shower with no CG. Not even breezy on the water. Maybe 15 knots tops for a short time. 

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