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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE    

SEVERAL MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING OUTLOOK, INCLUDING  

THE FOLLOWING:    

1) THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS WERE RECONFIGURED IN  

PENNSYLVANIA TO REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS AND  

RELATIVELY STABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BEHIND A  

CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH ONGOING  

CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE  

AIRMASS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO MERIT  

ANYMORE THAN A 5%/MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE  

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM  

OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO FOR  

UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, WHICH HAS SHOWN A RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER  

THE PAST HOUR OR SO. REF. MCD 1395 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

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FWIW - the 18z run of the experimental HRRR is pretty great for tomorrow and storms - looks like another multi-round day if you believe that output. Will be interesting to see what the NAMs print out this evening. Has been a good day of multi-round storms. Nothing like derecho levels but good old fashioned storms for many. 

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41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

FWIW - the 18z run of the experimental HRRR is pretty great for tomorrow and storms - looks like another multi-round day if you believe that output. Will be interesting to see what the NAMs print out this evening. Has been a good day of multi-round storms. Nothing like derecho levels but good old fashioned storms for many. 

3km NAM has nothing through 20z

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LWX AFD
Uncertainty increases significantly by afternoon with regards
to timing, coverage, and intensity of thunderstorms. CAPE/Shear
parameters become conditionally supportive of at least
marginally severe updrafts and modest storm organization...with
MLCAPE ~1500 J/KG and EBS 25-35 knots. Storms may form along
differential heating boundaries, remnant outflow boundaries, and
with terrain circulations or storms may develop west of the
area as an MCS and move across parts of the area. Primary severe
threat remains scattered strong winds with isolated pockets of
damaging wind in multicell clusters. Large hail may also
accompany the strongest and most persistent updrafts.
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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ok, need a roll call. Who is in for today?

@yoda

@Kmlwx
@high risk

@Ian
@Ellinwood

@Eskimo Joe

 

    I think I'm mostly out for SVR;  I'll be thrilled if I can get some heavy rain, and I'm not even sure about that.    The key seems to be this cluster southwest of DC.   HRRR really blows it up and makes it the main player - at the least, it may put out a nice cirrus shield.     If those storms are not correctly handled, I think we have a shot later.    Still some heavy rain potential after dark too.

 

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Meh @ at the latest NAM. It says it's a snoozer unless you're up near the mason dixon line. HRRR isn't terribly impressive either. I'm almost out. 

 

imo forecasts this summer have been pretty wishy/washy, so i'm not out until a front clears.

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very rarely do we get severe here.  i think tracking "strong" is a lot more reasonable.  with that said, i think the first storm yesterday was strong.  the 2nd one pretty solid (the clouds were awesome).  today was just a rainer.

looks like there's one more cell coming through shortly.  not sure if it holds, but looks intriguing.

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The storm ripped walls, roofs and decks off of homes, bringing down trees and destroying cars in what some have described as a "war zone."

Some of the hardest hit areas include the Ellendale community in Stevensville where several new homes were leveled. Those homes were unoccupied, according to ABC7's John Gonzalez. The Bay City community is also closed Monday morning because of heavy damage. Maryland STate Police say there are also gas leaks in the Bay City area.

ABC7's Eileen Whelan reports that a home was lifted off it's foundation in Stevensville while another house nearby had its roof ripped off and thrown to the other side of the yard. The man who lived in that second home suffered minor injuries, according to Whelan.

http://wjla.com/news/local/possible-tornado-causes-severe-storm-damage-on-marylands-eastern-shore

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     This was a legit event - my preliminary guess would be an EF-2.     What's not clear to me is whether the circulation tightened as it reached the bay or if the storm became surface-based as it encountered a possibly warmer or more moist low-level environment near the bay.    I think that the storm was elevated prior to that, as I haven't heard of any damage reports along the track of the meso, which was fairly well-defined as it passed just south of Rt 50 in Anne Arundel County.

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     It should also be noted that the deep layer shear as well as the downdraft cape today are much better than they were during the weekend.    The question is obviously how much coverage of storms there will be as the upper trough axis approaches.   The best dynamics are north of here, so I don't think we'll have widespread storms, but any that form certainly have the potential to produce some wind damage.e

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Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal.

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26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal.

That's impressive for most areas...let alone the Mid-Atlantic at 1:30ish in the morning. Wow. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal.

So it wouldn't be a pedestrian tornado, amirite?

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