09-10 analogy Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Best T&L of the season so far. We've had some good windy storms, some big rainers, but not much Zeusing. Until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Dumping rain her again and my street is flooded. Surprised no flash flood warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Good storm but nothing too unusual. Dog rattled but he is a wimp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 nothing severe here or even strong tbh, but kind of an overproducer in the rain dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Not a DROP of rain. Missed in every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, The Dude said: Insane. It's like several dozen per second. I've never seen anything close to that. Now the Bay Bridge is getting nuked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Man am I jealous of that! Haven't seen a good lightning storm all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Healthiest storm in a long time, I think since the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Apparently there is now a flash flood in parts of the District of Columbia ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...WEST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES...NORTHWESTERN ARLINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTIES... At 657 PM EDT, the public reported flash flooding brandywine st nw and broad branch road nw. Additional flooding is expected to occur over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Electricity actually went through my heals during a lighting strike. It popped. Leading up to it, my thoughts started becoming "dark" about 15-30 seconds before. I could also feel about how far away, it was like a presence approaching, and sort of at my command. I somehow knew I was going to get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Electricity actually went through my heals during a lighting strike. It popped. Leading up to it, my thoughts started becoming "dark" about 15-30 seconds before. I could also feel about how far away, it was like a presence approaching, and sort of at my command. I somehow knew I was going to get hit. Are you going to invent New Math™ now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 The sky looks awesome right now. I've only ever seen this before with Tropical storms and Hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 The sky looks awesome right now. I've only ever seen this before with Tropical storms and Hurricanes.It's really orange outside. Unless your talking about your lightning strike side-effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's really orange outside. Unless your talking about your lightning strike side-effects. I guess it has something to do with moisture saturation in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 14 hours ago, The Dude said: Now the Bay Bridge is getting nuked Why does the tall bridge structure not appear to influence strike occurrence? I would expect to see strikes outlining the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 3 hours ago, Frosty Frank said: Why does the tall bridge structure not appear to influence strike occurrence? I would expect to see strikes outlining the bridge. Good question. In my experience, lightningmaps.org is not perfectly precise with its strike placement. Someone smarter can me can probably explain how it works, but observationaly, I have noticed that the strikes can be off by a mile or more. For example, I'll see a strike out of my south-facing window, and it will show up on the map 10 blocks north of me. So, perhaps more strikes were actually hitting the bridge, but just not captured as such on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Sneaky severe this afternoon? ...Northern VA to eastern PA this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough over northern OH this morning will reach eastern PA later this afternoon. At the surface, a weak lee trough from northern VA into eastern PA will help to focus semi-discrete thunderstorm development this afternoon as the midlevel trough approaches. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but boundary layer dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s to lower 70s and daytime heating will drive MLCAPE values into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Effective bulk shear will also increase to 30-35 kt, which is representative of a low-end supercell environment where storms could produce marginally severe hail and isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 12z 3km NAM composite reflectivity looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Def liking the SPC mesoanalysis right now... plus the forecast for this afternoon. Currently 3000-3500 SBCAPE, 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 1100 DCAPE, -4 to -5 LI's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 55 minutes ago, yoda said: Def liking the SPC mesoanalysis right now... plus the forecast for this afternoon. Currently 3000-3500 SBCAPE, 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 1100 DCAPE, -4 to -5 LI's Still liking it 3500-4000 SBCAPE, 2000-2500 MLCAPE, -6 LIs at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Today isn't a bad day...another sneaky severe. shear is kinda shallow at ~30 kts...might be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Today isn't a bad day...another sneaky severe. shear is kinda shallow at ~30 kts...might be enough. Effective shear could reach 40-45 kts if the future forecasts on the SPC meso are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Effective shear could reach 40-45 kts if the future forecasts on the SPC meso are correct ~2,500 mixed CAPE....not bad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ~2,500 mixed CAPE....not bad really. 40-50 Craven SigSvr too... wouldn't be surprised to see a tor today either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 40-50 Craven SigSvr too... wouldn't be surprised to see a tor today either Kinda surprised we didn't get a slight risk out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Shocker...mid level lapse rates are poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Shocker...mid level lapse rates are poo. Yes... but everything else looks nice -7 LI, 2500-3000 MLCAPE, 4000-4500 SBCAPE, 1100 DCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 First cell just SW of Manassas. DCA is going to verify heat advisory criteria today. That place is a heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 How funny would it be if the eclipse knocked us just down enough in the temperature department to preclude any strong/severe weather today. Some places are reporting a 5 - 9 degree temperature drop during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Best tstorm of the year at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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