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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... 
  the District of Columbia... 
  southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... 
  central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... 
  Arlington County in northern Virginia... 
  the city of Falls Church in northern Virginia... 
  northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... 
  the city of Alexandria in northern Virginia... 

* until 815 PM EDT

* at 731 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Wheaton-Glenmont to Vienna, moving southeast at 15
  mph.

  Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts. 

  Source... radar indicated. 

  Impact... damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches 
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as 
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by 
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. 
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. 

* Locations impacted include... 
  Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Bowie, Annandale, Clinton, Olney,
  Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Langley
  Park, Beltsville, fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville, Falls
  Church, Huntington and largo.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around
you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large
trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don't drive
underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed.


Lat... Lon 3862 7705 3869 7707 3869 7710 3892 7730
      3913 7703 3894 7673
time... Mot... loc 2331z 308deg 15kt 3906 7703 3890 7724 

Hail... <.75in
wind... 60mph
 

Dh
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I think that Friday has some potential here - not talking outbreak, but there could be a number of reports if things come together.    Looks like dew points will reach the upper 70s, leading to 3000+ cape.   Shear won't be amazing, but it is progged to come up later in the day into the range where svr becomes possible.   Extended NAM nest reflectivity right now looks good.

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6 hours ago, high risk said:

I think that Friday has some potential here - not talking outbreak, but there could be a number of reports if things come together.    Looks like dew points will reach the upper 70s, leading to 3000+ cape.   Shear won't be amazing, but it is progged to come up later in the day into the range where svr becomes possible.   Extended NAM nest reflectivity right now looks good.

18z NAM soundings looked decent

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20 hours ago, high risk said:

I think that Friday has some potential here - not talking outbreak, but there could be a number of reports if things come together.    Looks like dew points will reach the upper 70s, leading to 3000+ cape.   Shear won't be amazing, but it is progged to come up later in the day into the range where svr becomes possible.   Extended NAM nest reflectivity right now looks good.

If we get more than 0.5" of rain on our softball fields tomorrow, I will never speak to you again.

 

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Hmmm... SPC Day 2 1730z OTLK

Quote

...Eastern VA into upstate NY and western New England...

   Early day rain and storms are expected to move across eastern NY and
   New England in association with theta-e advection in the low-levels
   supported by a broad area of 30 kt 850 mb flow. Instability will be
   weak for this initial activity, but gradual destabilization is
   expected to the west ahead of the front with isolated strong to
   severe storms possible. Instability will increase the most to the
   south with heating focused across MD and VA. As such, southern areas
   may have the greatest chance of severe storms with wind and isolated
   hail. Across the Delmarva area, low-level winds may remain locally
   backed, and it will be quite moist. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
   out provided a discrete cell moving into that area, but overall wind
   profiles suggest a more complex storm mode.

 

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