Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, yoda said: We will get ours soon No doubt in my mind, but I'd argue that PA north will get theirs first since there's terrain induced convection already popping around Harrisburg. That's a decent signal for us too...the environment is primed to get going once the trigger nudges it just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Blue Box from Mason-Dixon north until 00UTZ and a SVR from CTP just behind it. Take away message is that it won't take long for convection to get warned today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Our "big winds" days WRT storms are when the Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) gets over 1,000 j/kg and we are knocking on ~700 right now. Just a few hours more of good insolation and we've got it fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 15z HRRR brings the line through around 3pm this afternoon (!), which is 4 hours earlier than last night's 3k NAM run. That might explain the weaker performance - much less afternoon sunshine to build cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1091.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Areas affected...Much of central and eastern Maryland/Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191614Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears likely during the next few hours, and may begin impacting the Baltimore/Washington D.C. metropolitan areas by 2-4 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is now underway along and southeast of the Allegheny Mountains, as far south as the eastern West Virginia panhandle. This appears to coincide with the southeastern periphery of the stronger mid-latitude latitude westerlies, which may gradually edge toward the Baltimore/Washington D.C. metropolitan areas toward the 18-20Z time frame. As the increasingly weakly capped moist boundary layer continues to destabilize with additional insolation, this is expected to result in increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development. In the presence of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly mean lower/mid tropospheric flow, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer are expected to slowly lead to increasing potential for downbursts. Farther to the east and south, into parts of the Carolina piedmont and Mid Atlantic coastal plain, where mid-level heights remain fairly high and flow appears a bit weaker, but at least broadly cyclonic, a general increase in thunderstorm development and intensity appears probable through late afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Looks like we have initiation. Based off the storm motion, it looks like any activity that would impact DC proper will form between I-64 and I-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Leesburg (KJYO) reporting 88/73...that'll fuel something nice. DCAPE pushing 1000 j/kg too just west of DC with about 1 - 2.5 more hours of good sun. This is a decent setup for whatever moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Leesburg (KJYO) reporting 88/73...that'll fuel something nice. DCAPE pushing 1000 j/kg too just west of DC with about 1 - 2.5 more hours of good sun. This is a decent setup for whatever moves through. 86/72 SSW23G36 at KDCA at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 STW up till 8pm for the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 this still happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Lets begin BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1250 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Eastern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 130 PM EDT * At 1250 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Shepherdstown to Wilson-Conococheague, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Kearneysville, Long Meadow, Wolfsville and Saint James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 I'm not sure but I think we have a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hoping for some good growth of the cells to impact DC - Good stuff well SW and good stuff NW so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1259 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT * At 1258 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Corporation Of Ranson, or over Charles Town, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Clover Hill, Corporation Of Ranson, Linganore-Bartonsville, Adamstown, Jefferson, Myersville, Lovettsville, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Middleway, Rosemont and Rohrersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 That cell near Charles Town is nice. Tops pushing 50kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Cell in Shenandoah is at 40k feet, most likely the one that seeds to meet our area from general storm motion. Looks like it's all building nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 LOL -- i hadn't even looked at radar until now. Looking good up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Frederick County is gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Tornado Warning in Southern PA issued by CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Tornadic spinup near Harisonburg. These storms are a bit more semi-discrete than I was expecting. I wonder if we're going to get a semi-discrete storm mode when they roll through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 tornado warning in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 .86" in about 30 minutes...not much wind but plenty of thunder and lightning. Good drink for the gardens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 DCA at 88...cooking pretty good. WX panhandle probably getting a good dump of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Tornado warning in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: DCA at 88...cooking pretty good. WX panhandle probably getting a good dump of rain. 5-min obs show that DCA has been to at least 89. 88.3 at home. Couldn't have expected much better out front of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Looks like the convection near Beryville to Boyce in WV gusted out...subtle gust front evident on the 0.5 degree base reflectivity...hopefully this kicks something else off because the radar is rather unimpressive so far. Minimal lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Very strong rotation with the TW cell in PA... wouldn't be surprised to see a quick tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Not necessarily surprised by the lack of lightning. That's often a hallmark of these squall lines, which often underperform in both wind and lightning. It's the rare line that comes through with impressive lightning or actually damaging winds as opposed to breezy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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