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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

In all seriousness though the flood setup for Monday is decent.  Good front punching into a moisture rich environment that has decent jet dynamics.  Probably going to be a marginal TOR or wet microburst setup.  We sometimes see a tornado watch and flash flood watch at the same time during these events. 

Just don't look at the 12z NAM and you'll be fine. ;) 

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

I've spent several years lurking in fear of getting beat up on a weather forum, but the one thing I have noticed is that some of you will downplay everything, even sunshine.

Don't feel that way... please feel free to post what you think and believe.  Yes, certain posters do that.  

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LWX seems gung-ho for Monday afternoon in this afternoon's AFD:

Quote

The cold front will slowly pass through the area Monday into
Monday night. Shear profiles will continue to strengthen as the
upper-level trough associated with the cold front digs over the
Ohio Valley and Midwest. A south to southwest flow ahead of the
cold front will continue to usher in very warm and humid
conditions. The unstable atmosphere...along with forcing from
the cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms. Strong
shear profiles suggest that there is an enhanced threat for
severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary
threats due to unidirectional winds with height. Copious amounts
of moisture will also cause thunderstorms to contain heavy
rainfall. A shear vector nearly parallel to the cold front
suggests that training convection is possible. This elevates the
threat for flash flooding despite the faster storm motion
expected. The best chance for severe storms with heavy rain will
be during the afternoon and evening hours east of the Allegheny
and Potomac Highlands.
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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For the first time this year I am actually getting somewhat excited about the potential for tomorrow. 

The shear profiles are very nice but instability is my biggest concern. There is likely going to be a considerable amount of clouds during the day tomorrow from the line of storms coming into the region overnight. NAM SBCAPE isn't too good in resposne

.

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20 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

The shear profiles are very nice but instability is my biggest concern. There is likely going to be a considerable amount of clouds during the day tomorrow from the line of storms coming into the region overnight. NAM SBCAPE isn't too good in resposne

.

After taking a quick glance over the 12Z runs I will say my enthusiasm has been stomped on somewhat. Though we do see some action through the DC/Balt corridor it looks as if the models, for the most part, feel that the serious action really doesn't start popping until south and east of 95. Which would go hand in hand with your clouds comment. Oh well. At this point just hearing a peal of thunder would be a win in my book.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

After taking a quick glance over the 12Z runs I will say my enthusiasm has been stomped on somewhat. Though we do see some action through the DC/Balt corridor it looks as if the models, for the most part, feel that the serious action really doesn't start popping until south and east of 95. Which would go hand in hand with your clouds comment. Oh well. At this point just hearing a peal of thunder would be a win in my book.

Typical wait and see day tomorrow with cloud cover. I'm starting to think heavy rain may be the biggest concern of the day tomorrow.

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seems pretty clear-cut that timing is the key tomorrow.   NAM nest and HRRRX delay most or all of the activity and sweep a nice line through the area with an environment favorable for damaging winds.    The hi-res windows break out storms much earlier, and the result is much less coverage along the I-95 corridor.

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1 hour ago, Ellinwood said:

Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy :)

        Your point is well-taken, but while I agree that the timing of the front has been very steady, some guidance has been breaking out storms well out ahead of the primary forcing, and a few of the solutions have emphasized those as the primary storms, and they're somewhat scattered.     Even the solutions that bring a huge line through have a couple of cells out ahead;   they just don't screw up the main show.     That said, I'm in for tomorrow.    I think I favor the idea of a severe squall line impacting much of the area;  even if the early initiation with scattered cells solution is right (and I'm leaning against this scenario), there would still be severe.

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2 hours ago, Ellinwood said:

Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy :)

Agree on the timing and dynamics. Instability is in question due to preceding cloud cover. With late day timing and solid UL dynamics, instability concerns could be overcome. Will be an obs kind of day....

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