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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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The cloud deck is making very little progress in terms of burning off. SPC seems to side with the HRRR today - it's hard to ignore the repeated indication on that model for a couple decent storms...but with the cloud cover it definitely makes me question to reality. 

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mcd0919.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of western and central PA...southwest into
   central NY...and southward to the eastern WV Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301603Z - 301830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development is expected across western PA
   into southwest NY and southward some into WV by early afternoon
   (around 17Z), with one or more lines of storms and perhaps clusters
   spreading east today.  Damaging winds and hail will be the primary
   severe-weather threats.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in satellite imagery indicated ongoing cumulus
   formation this morning from the Upper Ohio Valley into WV, toward
   central PA and west/southwest NY, as surface heating and low-level
   moistening has weakened inhibition.  Late morning radar imagery
   showed some thunderstorm development within convection along and
   parallel to the higher terrain from the eastern WV Panhandle through
   central PA to south-central NY.  This activity was located within an
   area of low-level confluence, and the eastern extent of stronger
   instability analyzed over the western PA/Upper Ohio Valley region.

   Strengthening west-southwesterly 500-mb winds with the approach of a
   MI/IN/OH shortwave trough will support increasing effective bulk
   shear for organized storms.  In addition, an increase in forcing for
   ascent with this trough across the discussion area this afternoon
   into the evening will augment ascent along an eastward-moving front
   and aforementioned confluence zone to support more robust
   convection/thunderstorm development.  The degree of instability and
   bulk shear suggest damaging winds and hail will be the primary
   severe threats.  Long, straight hodographs suggest splitting storms
   will be possible, while low-level curvature could prove sufficient
   for a tornado threat too.

   ..Peters/Hart.. 05/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
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8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Buck up everybody, we may get 5 minutes of sunshine before a shower misses us a few miles to the north or south.

ha, was just gonna post, the clouds are gonna make a fool out of me. looks like you NOVA, DC people could get some sun, quick line, then all done. lol. 

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0923.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

   Areas affected...Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302156Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across
   northern Virginia into the early evening hours.  Large hail will be
   the primary threat, though locally damaging winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
   low-level lapse rates west of the wedge front across VA.  As a
   result, surface-based thunderstorms have developed along the eastern
   fringe of this more buoyant air mass and are slowly maturing within
   a corridor of favorable low-level convergence.  High-res model
   guidance has been consistent regarding this development and
   supercells are evolving within a strongly sheared and favorably
   unstable environment.  Latest radar data strongly suggests at least
   golf ball sized hail with the supercell over Culpeper/Stafford
   Counties.  There is increasing concern that this activity will
   linger into the evening hours as they propagate southeast along the
   wedge front.  Hail and wind can be expected with this activity.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...
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