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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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SPC-

Any supercell/tornado risk would appear to be semi-focused mainly across the Delmarva vicinity toward southeast PA/southern NJ in vicinity of a surface low and warm front.

 

I have never even sniffed seeing a funnel, but I have gotten some good cloud shots of storms rolling in. A couple really cool shelfs, one over the bay that I posted here a couple years back.

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM NEST wants to crush DC at 22z

Yea saw that.  Hmm, sub 100mb low trying to jet through the region can be fun.  It's been our saving grace for isolated severe so many times.  Just as I type this I see blue sky in Gaithersburg.  Still not terribly excited.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea saw that.  Hmm, sub 100mb low trying to jet through the region can be fun.  It's been our saving grace for isolated severe so many times.  Just as I type this I see blue sky in Gaithersburg.  Still not terribly excited.

Also - Sunday looks super lame. So getting something today would be a bit of a consolation prize. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Also - Sunday looks super lame. So getting something today would be a bit of a consolation prize. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1207 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-261000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
1207 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early
this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
large hail...locally damaging winds and perhaps an isolated
tornado. Heavy downpours in thunderstorms will pose a threat for
localized flash flooding of small streams and creeks as well.
Special marine warnings may also be required over the waters.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. The potential exists for
some of these storms to produce severe weather and flash flooding.
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Nice 500 mb disturbance rolling through our backyards on the EURO Saturday afternoon leads to a precip bulls-eye over you guys. Dunno about severe, but temperatures near 80 could help get things going. 

PS: FWIW, the RPM is swinging a healthy line of storms through WV in to VA Saturday afternoon. I've been more concerned about Saturday than Sunday, tbh, as any storms Saturday will hinder Sunday's threat, imo. Areas south of the storms Saturday will be the ones to see storms Sunday. 

mgWeb_WRF_20170525-150000_ANE_ECONUS_F00543000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png

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2 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Nice 500 mb disturbance rolling through our backyards on the EURO Saturday afternoon leads to a precip bulls-eye over you guys. Dunno about severe, but temperatures near 80 could help get things going. 

PS: FWIW, the RPM is swinging a healthy line of storms through WV in to VA Saturday afternoon. I've been more concerned about Saturday than Sunday, tbh, as any storms Saturday will hinder Sunday's threat, imo. Areas south of the storms Saturday will be the ones to see storms Sunday. 

mgWeb_WRF_20170525-150000_ANE_ECONUS_F00543000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png

Nothing to see here per EJ.

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