WxReese Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said: Popped up to 77 when the sun came out, almost full sun now in Spotsylvania.....time will tell Yeah, 73/66, or thereabouts, from many of the reporting stations around here. Also, here's what I mean by clouds having a tough time going vertical... They have the nice cauliflower look on tops but are just struggling to grow. That's why I think we need to get close to 80°, so the low level lapse rates can steepen and help things get going through that dry layer. Dew point should also get a bit higher as the sun evaporates the standing water. Models don't have things going until 4-5 PM, so, like you said, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 17z HRRR has a group of cellular activity (low topped sups?) developing around 23z and moving NE through N VA around 02z... one cell moves thorough DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 72/68 at home, 73/68 at DCA. Sticky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 My current call is for scattered showers and isolated GENERAL thunderstorms. There could still be a brief/very isolated severe report somewhere in the area of max instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 We're primed for a small cluster of cells. Supercell composite is a 4 across NOVA and there's a few subtle boundaries on radar. Add to that sun and it's going to be interesting over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're primed for a small cluster of cells. Supercell composite is a 4 across NOVA and there's a few subtle boundaries on radar. Add to that sun and it's going to be interesting over the next few hours. Some cells popping down near CHO and Powhatan, VA. They look pretty weak for the time being. NoVA still looks okay for some moderate to strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're primed for a small cluster of cells. Supercell composite is a 4 across NOVA and there's a few subtle boundaries on radar. Add to that sun and it's going to be interesting over the next few hours. Yeah, showers getting going near Scottsville are moving in to 1500 J/kg CAPE and along the western side of the Bulk Shear axis. Could explode in to that nice cluster you mention north of I-64 and really get going in Orange/Spotsylvania Counties within next 1-1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 This is only going to be one or two cells, nothing more. I've only been more bullish of late because the one thing that seems to consistently work in our favor in early spring are sub-1000 mb lows. They almost always have enough dynamics to clear us out and shove some small multi-cell cluster of convection through the region during prime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I am at Oregon Ridge Park on a nice vantage point and can see blue sky and sun off to the west. Sun coming out as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Sun's out in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Decent bit of stuff firing west of Richmond...that's the area to watch. Lapse rates, especially low level, are sucko so that might be the knife in the back locally. I don't expect any action east of a Frederick -> Poolesville -> DCA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, WxReese said: Yeah, showers getting going near Scottsville are moving in to 1500 J/kg CAPE and along the western side of the Bulk Shear axis. Could explode in to that nice cluster you mention north of I-64 and really get going in Orange/Spotsylvania Counties within next 1-1.5 hours. Yeah, we are up to 78 with showers in the area in Spotsylvania County.....radar looks interesting west of Richmond, we will see how they develop over the next hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Interesting storm motion in some of those storms. Some look to be moving SE to NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Interesting storm motion in some of those storms. Some look to be moving SE to NW Could lead to localized flash flood risk, especially in the Leesburg, Front Royal, Martinsburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Looks like some decent training west of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 There's out cell, just east of Warrenton. Probably the only action of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Yes nice signature on it now. Went up pretty fast too. Went from almost nothing to a 1+ inch hail marker pretty quick on GR2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Yes nice signature on it now. Went up pretty fast too. Went from almost nothing to a 1+ inch hail marker pretty quick on GR2. If you look at the SPC meso analysis under Surface -> Moisture Convergence you will see it's getting set up over the CAPE boundary and surface moisture convergence. Probably going to see one or two more try to fire along it too then collapse in about 5 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Got one 60dbz near Chambersburg,PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Another tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Oh hey, another spinny trying to enter King George County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Picture of a tornado earlier today in Ivor, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 There are enough little spinups in this line to keep me momentarily interested. One by Bowling Green, VA, and one tried to get going by La Plata earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Looks like some nice storms rolling into DC from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Right around 02z... as the HRRR had predicted earlier in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Got a meso signal headed straight into DC on radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Pretty sure I saw lightning flash outside my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Meso signal that was near DC has disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Flases of lighting off to my SW. Radar looks pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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