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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us.  We saw that on April 6th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region.

I hope you're right in this case. This weather has been pretty boring overall around these parts. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us.  We saw that on April 6th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region.

Decent surface and upper level low placement but the timing sucks for the ribbon of storms. Good dynamics in play though. 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.png

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Just now, yoda said:

That's why I chose the 21z sounding lol

Oh, I know. Even then, those have serious issues, imo. Thermals are better, without a doubt, but there are still a few levels where it goes nearly isothermal. Seeing that is a no-go for me. Then that mid-level dry air that continues in to upper levels. YIKES. 

Definitely going to be a super small, thread the needle kind of event if you want a decent storm, as Joe said last page. 
 

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2 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Oh, I know. Even then, those have serious issues, imo. Thermals are better, without a doubt, but there are still a few levels where it goes nearly isothermal. Seeing that is a no-go for me. Then that mid-level dry air that continues in to upper levels. YIKES. 

Definitely going to be a super small, thread the needle kind of event if you want a decent storm, as Joe said last page. 
 

LWX afternoon AFD agrees with you for that time period:

An occluded front associated with the low will pass through the
area from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop along
this boundary. Shear profiles will be quite strong so any
thunderstorms that do develop may become severe. Confidence for
severe is still very low at this time because the dry slot
should be strong enough to produce a strong inversion and lift
along the boundary will be weak. Therefore...confidence in
breaking the capping inversion is low at this time. Later shifts
will have to monitor this. Warmer and more humid conditions are
expected Friday with max temps well into the 70s for most
locations. Some areas may even get into the lower 80s if there
are enough breaks of sunshine.
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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Whether it be timing or instability, we always screw something up in these parts. Unless it's 2008...or 2012 I suppose - we fail at severe. 

Watch Friday afternoon turn out to be a sig svr day since we failed last weekend :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Whether it be timing or instability, we always screw something up in these parts. Unless it's 2008...or 2012 I suppose - we fail at severe. 

Psh! I've already seen hail twice this year and JUST missed out on another hail core. All while being in Charlottesville and not chasing. YOU might fail at severe this year, but we haven't. :P :hug:

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This intrigues me.   Usually when we have the strong shear, the system is so strong that we get widespread rain/convection which destroys any chances for discrete cells.  But all of the widespread rain will be moving out early, and it's pretty clear that we'll dry slot behind it.   If we can get any heating Friday afternoon, there should be just enough lift on the front and perhaps with an embedded short wave to generate some discrete cells which would be in an environment with favorable shear.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

This intrigues me.   Usually when we have the strong shear, the system is so strong that we get widespread rain/convection which destroys any chances for discrete cells.  But all of the widespread rain will be moving out early, and it's pretty clear that we'll dry slot behind it.   If we can get any heating Friday afternoon, there should be just enough lift on the front and perhaps with an embedded short wave to generate some discrete cells which would be in an environment with favorable shear.

You caught me at "this intrigues me" :lol:

 

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10 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Psh! I've already seen hail twice this year and JUST missed out on another hail core. All while being in Charlottesville and not chasing. YOU might fail at severe this year, but we haven't. :P :hug:

You have been quite lucky then. We haven't had a good "areawide" event so far this season. Granted - it's still early. 

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