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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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Latest NAM nest run and last few HRRR runs still like some initiation around 22z mainly south of the DC Beltway.     Hard to ignore that signal, although it wouldn't surprise me if nothing goes up - the NAM nest develops storms nicely, but it looks like it's running high with the dew points in the lower levels.     Still a highly conditional threat.  

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I know we got burned yesterday, but HRRR and NAM show potential for some activity (mostly to the west) later today. Could be something to watch. The ingredients for something to pop are still there, we just don't have forcing...

Reason of bust yesterday, thermonuclear cap, when Temps in DC in April are in the 90s, you know it will be an capped enviorment

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20 hours ago, yoda said:

18z NAM soundings still look good till around 06z SUN... so hopefully something pops... Monday looks meh

18 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bust...bah.  Sunday and Monday look like meh.

Afternoon CAMs for tomorrow are pretty bullish with multiple semi-discrete cells and bowing segments from Upstate NY south into this sub-forum. Shear/trough orientation certainly will be favorable, shouldn't take a lot of instability.

 

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