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downeastnc

2017 General Severe Weather thread

84 posts in this topic

The funny thing about the crazy severe hail around GSP and CLT areas, is they were all pop up tstorms, the MCS , was a dud and these were hours ahead of the MCS ! When storms pop up in TR area and drift S/SE, they can be wicked pissahs!

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We actually had some decent hail here at work with the storms last night, was at least marble size with some hen egg sized ones mixed in....

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Latest 3km Nam run pretty decent, still though overall threat looks to be fairly tame with marginal severe

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017032718&fh=6

 

RAH write up

Models do favor redevelop of at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the surface wind shift line that is forecast to
move SE into central NC Tuesday afternoon. The favored lift area out
ahead of the mid/upper trough is forecast to reach the eastern
Piedmont into the Coastal Plain and Coastal Areas during the peak
heating period. Convection may blossom as early as late morning or
around noon near the wind shift line, and should spread and develop
ESE during the afternoon.

It appears that the most favored area for optional heating and
destabilization should occur just to the east and south of the
Triangle area, just before the convection develops in the early
afternoon and tracks into the region. The earlier timing of the
front and trough should limit the strong to severe threat in the NW
Piedmont Triad region, with the focus in the eastern zones. Even in
the east where the instability and shear is expected to be higher,
most parameters for severe storms are forecast to be marginal. Highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the east, with dew points nearing
60, should lead to MLCapes near 1000 J/KG. Mid level lapse rates may
still be in question but some subtle warming aloft may be a negative
factor for organized severe storms.

Still, look for at least scattered thunderstorms with the potential
for wind gusts to 40-50 mph and possibly up to 1 inch hail in a few
of the strongest storms. We will highlight areas east of the Triad
area for this potential due to timing in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

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Some action firing up west of the Triangle and the sun after this morning showers have got instability back up could see a few hailers and microburst, the shear is there to support them for the rest of the afternoon....

mcd0352.gif.62f5f1198ebd25351a1af07a0fcc35bb.gif

 


   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

   Valid 281758Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms capable of
   hail are possible this afternoon mainly across southeast Virginia
   into eastern North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures in
   association with a shortwave trough has led to around 1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE across central VA and NC. Visible satellite imagery shows
   widespread cumulus development, with a few weak thunderstorms over
   western VA aided by the higher terrain. Farther east, a relative
   cool pockets was noted over eastern NC due to ongoing showers,
   however, these will eventually move offshore with warmer air
   returning from the west.

   With time, further heating will erode any remaining CIN, allowing at
   least isolated thunderstorms to form across the entire area. Little
   focus exists given a broad/weak surface low, however, the best area
   may be over southeastern VA and central to northeastern NC in a few
   hours, as the instability axis shifts into that area, and where
   low-level convergence will exist for a longer duration as winds
   generally veer with time, from west to east. A cell or two could
   exhibit supercell characteristics at times, but the main threat
   should be hail as winds in the low-levels will be weak.

 

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40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We just had about 1 minute of small hail in downtown Raleigh.  This was about 15 minutes ago.

Yeah wont take much to get hail, a few nasty cells warned in eastern NC right now both have impressive hail cores....

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Wow RIP Kelley. So sad. He was such a nice guy. Shared a burger after a chase in Litchfield, Illinois with him and his son. I am very saddened by this news. The storm chase community will miss him immensely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Bummer about Kelly, even sadder is he blew that stop sign so it was a avoidable accident, still he was one of the best to watch as he took time to answer questions and really tried to explain what was going on so people could understand......

 

On a local severe storm note some huge hail yesterday in Jones Co, here is a link to the NWS info concerning it...

http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar282017Hail

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2 hours ago, Hvward said:

Wow RIP Kelley. So sad. He was such a nice guy. Shared a burger after a chase in Litchfield, Illinois with him and his son. I am very saddened by this news. The storm chase community will miss him immensely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, the weird thing was, I had TWC on at about 4:00, and was watching him chase that storm and report on it, live on air . Then the accident happened at 3:30 central , so 4:30 our time! Then he's just gone! 

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7 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Bummer about Kelly, even sadder is he blew that stop sign so it was a avoidable accident, still he was one of the best to watch as he took time to answer questions and really tried to explain what was going on so people could understand......

 

On a local severe storm note some huge hail yesterday in Jones Co, here is a link to the NWS info concerning it...

http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar282017Hail

Yeah and it's my understanding Kelly hit another chase vehicle and that chaser was killed as well.

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11 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Yeah and it's my understanding Kelly hit another chase vehicle and that chaser was killed as well.

Yes, Kelley and his chasing partner were killed and the other driver of the other car was a chaser as well. All 3 died! 

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Nam 3K looks rough for Friday.....GFS and Euro are both way less severe but lately its tough to bet against the NAM inside of 48 hrs....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017032918&fh=6

RAH this afternoon...

The 12Z
GFS/ECMWF suggest a lower potential for severe weather given an
upper low track further to the north and a slightly faster
progression of the system. The 12Z NAM would suggest a more robust
potential for severe weather due to the closer proximity of the
upper low and slightly slower progression of the system which would
result in favorable diurnal timing, as well. Uncertainty remains too
high to say much more w/regard to the severe weather potential.

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yes, Kelley and his chasing partner were killed and the other driver of the other car was a chaser as well. All 3 died! 

It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ?

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16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ?

 

That's a stretch. I think the unlucky one if you want to call it that, was the 25-year old that was killed in the other car.  If Kelly had lived he would be facing several charges including some form of a manslaughter charge. 

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It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ?

 

Kelley wasn't unlucky at all, it was reckless and they killed another completely innocent person along with themselves. If you watch the live stream from then, within an hour time they ran at least 3-4 stop signs without slowing down, and have done it many times in the past. I went on a rant in the thread about the accident, not gonna rehash it too much here too, I'll go on forever.

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13 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Kelley wasn't unlucky at all, it was reckless and they killed another completely innocent person along with themselves. If you watch the live stream from then, within an hour time they ran at least 3-4 stop signs without slowing down, and have done it many times in the past. I went on a rant in the thread about the accident, not gonna rehash it too much here too, I'll go on forever.

Yeah but your 100% correct, when its all said and done what happened was almost the inevitable outcome of years of carelessness...if you regularly run stops signs you will eventually end up in a wreck, luck or lack of it has nothing to do with it. When I watched the feed I was frankly amazed that they actually appear to speed up as they approached the intersection...hopefully this serves as a huge wake up call to the chasing community. No tornado footage is worth this. 

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