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2017 General Severe Weather thread


downeastnc

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859 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017

...A pair of strong thunderstorms will affect portions of 
northeastern Scotland...northeastern Richmond...southwestern Lee... 
Hoke...southwestern Harnett...central Moore...southeastern 
Montgomery and northwestern Cumberland Counties Until 1000 PM EDT...

At 857 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a pair of strong 
thunderstorms from near Carthage to 4 miles northeast of Ellerbe. 
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Southern Pines, Raeford, Carthage, Fort Bragg,
Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Hoffman, Pope AFB and Hope Mills.
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AFD:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Monday...

A couple of very strong cells are crossing the Sandhills, within an 
environment of somewhat low LCLs and around 50 kts of deep layer 
shear, but weak low-level shear and marginal instability. These 
cells have exhibited deep broad rotation, but the weak and 
unfavorable low level wind field, and the lack of a focus/boundary 
to concentrate any low level vorticity, do not appear to 
support any significant spinup at the surface. While strong wind 
gusts remain possible, hail development will continue to be limited 
by poor mid level lapse rates. Will continue to monitor these cells 
as they move into a better CAPE environment with sufficient 
effective shear. 
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Based on a storm survey conducted today in northern Sampson County, straight-line winds last night were responsible for a broad, five-mile-wide swath of damage extending from north of Salemburg eastward to the Duplin County line. Winds were estimated to be in excess of 70 mph throughout this damage path, with localized areas of 80-90 mph. Hundreds of trees were downed, along with several structures damaged or destroyed.

For more information, see our Public Information Statement: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php…

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Still a chance for something...

2:58pm CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: across deep south tx, acro... http://go.usa.gov/YWq5 

DBlStgQXoAECBPf.jpg
 
...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of
   south Texas, the High Plains into central Wyoming, the middle Ohio
   Valley to eastern New York, and the Carolinas and vicinity mainly
   through this evening. A few strong to briefly severe storms may also
   be possible overnight along the central/eastern Gulf Coast.
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740 PM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Pitt County in eastern North Carolina...
  Southwestern Martin County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 830 PM EDT

* At 739 PM EDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
  extending from 11 miles north of Pitt Greenville Airport to near
  Robersonville, moving east at 10 mph. Public reported Tornado on
  the ground near Highway 30 between Bethel and Stokes.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.
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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I saw the wall cloud leaving work, I almost went after it but its been a long day so I headed home, I regret that decision now. 

Where was it at? I'm currently in Raleigh but my dad works in the Industrial park on Sugg Parkway and he doesn't carry his phone on him so I can't get in touch with him. 

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759 PM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY...

At 759 PM EDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
extending from near Robersonville to 7 miles southwest of
Williamston, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

These tornadic storms will be near...
  Williamston around 815 PM EDT.
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Just now, cmh90 said:

Where was it at? I'm currently in Raleigh but my dad works in the Industrial park on Sugg Parkway and he doesn't carry his phone on him so I can't get in touch with him. 

Up along Hwy 30/64 between Bethel and Stokes so it was 5-8 miles north of of that area as the crow flies......my work is about a mile from where your dad works the tornado, though my brother who I work with and is currently at work just filmed a gustnado right over by your dads work lol.....

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49 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks like it came from a supercell. Any radar capture? I think I remember good cells on NC radar Monday afternoon but I did not follow closely. LLJ was pretty veered off, but perhaps not as much so that far east. Nice!

Here is a radar capture I took shortly after it went under a warning and the tornado was reported. 

IMG_2418.JPG

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  • 1 month later...

Could be the beginnings of that severe line forming NW of the triangle,  the Hi Res models have it scooting SE in the early evening hrs...if it can happen fast enough to tap into the very unstable air over central and eastern NC we could actually see some severe storms. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks like there's potential for severe weather on Thursday and Friday. Friday seems to have the biggest potential for a greater threat.

Thursday

day2otlk_1730.gif?1501092829455

Friday

day3otlk_0730.gif?1501092760247

The wording from the SPC for Friday is interesting...

...Mid South and Southeast to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast... While a large degree of uncertainty exists with respect to timing/location, evolution of severe convection is expected across a rather broad area of the southern and eastern U.S. Friday ahead of the advancing cold front and associated/digging upper system. As enhanced/diffluent flow aloft spreads across the area ahead of the upper system, a favorable kinematic environment for organized/fast-moving bands of storms will exist. The main questions at this time revolve around timing of synoptic features, and evolution of prior -- and ongoing -- convection, and related effects on heating/destabilization potential. Given these questions, a broad 15%/slight risk area is being included across what appears to be the zone of greatest risk at this point, with later adjustments to area and risk level likely to be required. Along with risk across portions of the Mid Atlantic area ahead of the anticipated track of the main vort max, the broad zone of enhanced/diffluent northwest flow aloft across a large portion of the southeast U.S. would also support potential for rather widespread damaging wind risk with multiple, upscale-growing bands of storms through the afternoon and evening hours.

 

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Slight risk is gone

During the evening hours, as the surface low moves toward the mouth
   of the Chesapeake, a marginal/conditional tornado threat may develop
   across portions of eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Here, modest
   instability and rich low level moisture will be in place. Hodographs
   should enlarge in response to backing surface winds ahead of the low
   and a southwesterly low-level jet develops overhead. Any
   thunderstorm that can sustain itself in this environment will have
   the potential for a brief tornado.

 

DF0u54mXkAAHrHl.jpg

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