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2017 General Severe Weather thread


downeastnc

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TOR warning for a severe thunderstorm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
455 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
  North central Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 515 AM EDT

* At 455 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Southeastern Community College, or near
  Whiteville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elkton, Abbottsburg, Lisbon and Clarkton.

This includes US Route 74 between mile markers 389 and 390.

 

 

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Strong couplet now on the Pender Co storm....there has been 3 or 4 tonight that have looked like they may have produced but this one is the best looking one since the one in SC hrs ago. Several storms now getting that look and trying to establish rotations in central and eastern NC, school buses etc are also getting ready to start running etc, going to be a messy commute.

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http://www.wtoc.com/story/35347549/severe-storm-damage-reported-in-garden-city-along-hwy-80

I don't recall a warning coming out on this and I didn't grab a screenshot of what I saw, but I have Pykl3 and was watching the storms come through as we went about our business yesterday afternoon.  At least to my untrained eye the base reflectivity showed a little hook on one cell and the velocity showed a rough couplet moving between I-95 and I-516 (which would put it in the right place for this).

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Could move into our Northern counties if it stays together.

912 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTY...

At 912 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mt Laurel, moving south at 30 mph.

Tornado Warning including Brookneal VA until 9:00 PM EDT

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RAH HWO this morning,,,

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
producing large hail up to one and a half to two inches in diameter, strong
to locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

 

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10:40AM

Still expect enough partial sun by early-mid afternoon to produce
SBCAPE values between 2000-2500 J/kg late today with MLCAPE 1000-
1500 probable. This buoyant air mass coupled with effective bulk
shear values 45-55kts will support the formation of organized
convection, likely in the form of broken bowing segment and a few
supercells. Main severe weather threat appears to be large hail and
damaging straight line winds, though an isolated weak tornado cannot
be ruled out. The severe threat appears greatest roughly north and
northeast of Raleigh, and primarily during the evening hours.
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mcd0698.gif

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated severe risk will extend from portions of
   eastern KY east-southeastward to eastern NC into the evening hours.
   It is unclear whether severe coverage will be sufficient for Watch
   issuance, though environmental/convective trends will be monitored
   for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have developed from parts of
   central KY to southern WV and will continue tracking
   east-southeastward into the evening hours. This activity lies within
   the warm side of a baroclinic zone extending from KY through
   northeastern NC. Some of this activity has shown indications of
   localized upscale growth, which could subsequently support a
   downstream, greater risk for damaging winds amid pre-convective
   diurnally steepened low-level lapse rates.

   Ahead of the KY/WV convection, additional convective development may
   occur. This would especially be the case in proximity to a segment
   of the baroclinic zone from southern VA into
   northern/central/eastern NC -- where baroclinic circulations are
   enhanced in association with more substantial contrasts in theta-e.
   Cumulus development is already noted in this regime, where greater
   surface heating (temperatures into the lower 80s) has boosted
   low-level lapse rates.

   All of the aforementioned convection will spread east-southeastward
   and perhaps southeastward toward/across the Appalachians, Piedmont
   region, and coastal plain into the evening hours. With around
   500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-55 kt of effective shear, continued
   robust and somewhat organized convective structures may evolve.
   Isolated damaging wind gusts will remain possible (as previously
   described), and some severe-hail risk may accompany any supercell
   structures.

   The greatest risk for a supercell -- and perhaps a brief tornado --
   will extend from parts of southern VA into northern/central/eastern
   NC, where buoyancy and low-level SRH will be the greatest (albeit
   modest in magnitude). Overall, however, the lack of stronger deep
   ascent could restrict severe coverage to some extent. If a more
   substantial severe risk were to become apparent, Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance could become necessary later this afternoon or
   evening for portions of the region.

   ..Cohen/Guyer.. 05/11/2017
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