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2017 General Severe Weather thread


downeastnc

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL TALBOT AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 144 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Wesley Church, or 10 miles east of Talbotton, moving
east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carsonville, Wesley Church and Prattsburg.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  

152 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017    

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A    

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHEASTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  

NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  

NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...    

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT    

* AT 152 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED   OVER CARSONVILLE, OR 10 MILES NORTH OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT   30 MPH.    

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!    

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.    

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.    

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.     *

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...   CARSONVILLE AND SALEM.  

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Latest Nam and HR^3 are pathetic for eastern parts of the Triangle for this afternoon.  Looks like another "limited" storm threat.

They are actually pretty different from one another so I wouldnt put much stock in them having the exact evolution of the storms worked out yet.  Timing as usual stinks as it is after dark when they get into central and eastern NC so thats going to limit instability, the shear is pretty good though so any strong storm could rotate. 

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deja vu

As of 1045 AM Monday...

Some changes with the timing as models continue to slow down the
frontal system as the parent low pressure system sits over the Great
Lakes region. At this time it appears the main threat for severe
thunderstorms will be in the Northwest Piedmont and extreme western
portions of our area. These are the locations the main line of
storms may get to before 00z. With this line, damaging winds will be
the most likely threat with hail as a secondary threat. After 0Z,the
threat decreases considerably as the line will continue eastward
reaching the Triangle area by 5-6Z, but weakening considerably as it
does so. The system should exit to the east around or shortly after
12z on Tuesday. Another factor consider is that with vigorous
convection ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico, outflow from that could
race out ahead of the system and further cutoff our chances for
severe storms later in the day.
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3pm update from nws Raleigh:

Ahead of the system some areas of low level convergence have led to
a few secondary weak lines of showers out ahead of the system over
the western Piedmont. This could help mitigate some of the
instability and may be a deterring factor for later convection. That
aside, effective shear over the NW Piedmont is approaching 50 kts.
with 20-30 knots of that in the lowest km. There are 300 m2/s2 of 0-
1 km storm relative helicity in place just ahead of the main line of
storms so an isolated spin-up or brief tornado cannot be ruled out,
especially if low level winds can become a little more backed but
for now much of the low level flow appears to be more parallel to
the line.

As much as the shear parameters look good, there are many questions
regarding instability. ML CAPE ahead of the front is only around 500
J/kg at this time and low level lapse rates are weak, although mid-
levels are respectable. A glance at the forecast soundings shows
very long skinny CAPE, indicating that hail is less likely to be a
threat but an 18z special sounding at Greensboro shows a little
better CAPE than expected in the hail growth zone. The best
soundings for severe wx are indeed in the Triad with the most
instability and good shear but a fairly straight hodograph from 0-1
km indicating mostly speed shear. 0-3 km however is nicely curved
indicating the possibility of some rotation aloft with less of a
chance of it reaching the ground. Therefore the biggest threat
remains damaging winds along the line with that threat decreasing as
the line moves eastward and loses heating after sunset.
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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

HRRR really blows the line up again as it crosses the Triangle and moves into eastern NC......guess we will see how accurate it is.

Of course it does.  Wake County routinely produces the most stable air in the state.

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26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Looks like the line is maybe coming back to life a little.

SPC disc they put out a couple hrs back talks about the HRRR beefing up the activity as it heads east which is why we are back in a slight risk after being taken out of it at midday here in the east. Still its gonna be all shear and mid level lapse rates as cape stinks...still its getting late though and we see this type of setup quite often with good shear and skinny to non existent cape and more often than not it does not do much , there are exceptions though so we shall see.

 

SPC disco

Farther south, considerable thunderstorm activity has developed
   within the surface trough to the lee of the central/southern
   Appalachians.  Mid/upper forcing for ascent ahead of large-scale
   mid/upper troughing to the west of the Appalachians is not as strong
   as to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, and warm mid-level layers
   have suppressed destabilization and convective development at  least
   somewhat.  However, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates at least some
   mid-level cooling, coupled with strengthening of southerly 850 mb
   flow to 50+ kt, this evening across the coastal plain of the
   Carolinas and Virginia, which may be sufficient to maintain vigorous
   convective development with a risk for localized potentially
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado
.
 

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