Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 28th - March 1st Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 726
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Day 2 tidbit from the Storm Prediction Center...

Given the 12Z ESRL HRRR and 12Z NAM 4km suggesting a broken band of
   discrete storms developing from east-central MO into central and
   northeast IL, the enhanced severe risk area has been expanded north
   across to now include more of eastern MO and into central IL, with a
   northward expansion of the slight and marginal risks as well. 
   Moderate instability and strengthening deep-layer and low-level
   shear will favor all severe hazards, with some indication for a
   strong tornado threat from parts of AR to southern IL along a
   strengthening low-level jet enhancing hodograph curvature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That said, the line would be pretty vigorous with some embedded QLCS tornadoes if any of these mesoscale models have an idea.

Yeah, at least some QLCS tornado threat looks likely.

As has been mentioned, models are showing pretty impressive low level shear. 0-1 km shear is pushing 50 kts on some runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems pretty evident that there is going to be a QLCS initiating over Illinois around 22-0z on tomorrow night. Initially the 4K nam has a broken line transitioning into more of a squall line by 03z. However it also has a few discretes over Indiana and Ohio. Sounding below is from just south of discrete cell in Ohio. Does this seem like a realistic scenario? Is there anything to cause initation in the warm sector?  

IMG_6733.PNG

IMG_6732.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Anti tornado said:

It seems pretty evident that there is going to be a QLCS initiating over Illinois around 22-0z on tomorrow night. Initially the 4K nam has a broken line transitioning into more of a squall line by 03z. However it also has a few discretes over Indiana and Ohio. Sounding below is from just south of discrete cell in Ohio. Does this seem like a realistic scenario? Is there anything to cause initation in the warm sector?  

It seems around here at least, storms associated with the warm front often over perform.    Meanwhile the main show severe threat that is suppose to occur with the cold front ends up being the dud.

Just something I've noticed throughout my years of weenie wx watching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

It seems around here at least, storms associated with the warm front often over perform.    Meanwhile the main show severe threat that is suppose to occur with the cold front ends up being the dud.

Just something I've noticed throughout my years of weenie wx watching.

I can confirm the same for midwestern ON. My last severe thunderstorm in March 2012 was warm front induced.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...