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March 2017 Discussion & Observations

929 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That was an amazing wet stretch that included the snowy Winters of 2010 and 2011, and it's amazing how relatively dry we've been since September 2011.

Which did you get more rain in, October 2005 or August 2011?  Fairly comparable months here, however the weekend event in August 2011 was an event to behold here- about 10" of rain in 24 hours.  Both month had close to two feet of rain.

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7 hours ago, nzucker said:

09-10 was a great winter for snowfall...I had 68" in Dobbs Ferry. I had a similar total (70") in 10-11, but it came with much colder conditions and long-lasting snowpack. After NYC had its snowiest February on record in 2010, 2011 had the 2nd most days with consecutive snow cover in Central Park, behind only 1947-48. Snow cover began with the Boxing Day Blizzard and lasted through mid February. It was melted out by a torch but then returned with 8" on 2/21.

The 2/25 Snowicane was my best storm ever, 26" of snow along with 30-40mph winds, and around 3" of liquid. Everyone else mixed while my hilltop stayed all snow. Nothing like seeing a nuking blizzard in your hometown.

Snowfall definitely seems to be on the increase since 2002-03 started the run of 4 consecutive 40" winters at Central Park. We had snowy winters in 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16. This year and 08-09 were slightly above average as well. You wonder how long this can last with the warming climate.

It was nice to get a significant March snowfall given how many cold Marches we've had. March '14 was -4F on temps with 0.5" snow; we watched while DC got pounded 3 times, then watched a 980mb low go OTS on 3/28. March '13 had a good ocean low/Norlun, but we only got 4-8" while New England had 20"+. This was probably the most exciting March event since 2009. However, the 20" snowpack after the two Mar 2015 events was awesome too.

 

March 2015 was the greatest March I've ever seen- strongly suspect the very cold February had a lot to do with that pattern sustaining itself.  Best backloaded winter ever lol.

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58 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So I looked at my forecast and now they're talking about snow for Monday?  What's going on?

After that backdoor front, there is a chance for overrunning precipitation.

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Looks like all the tree and shrub growth is obstructing the sensor in NYC causing an artificially low reading again. All the other stations are generally in the -2 to -3 so far this month. A poster commended that they were out there recently and the sensor is even hidden from sunlight without the foliage during the cold season.

NYC...-4.1...LGA...-1.8...JFK...-3.2...ISP...-3.0...BDR...-2-2...EWR...-3.1

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8 hours ago, Paragon said:

Which did you get more rain in, October 2005 or August 2011?  Fairly comparable months here, however the weekend event in August 2011 was an event to behold here- about 10" of rain in 24 hours.  Both month had close to two feet of rain.

I don't remember October 2005 but I had 13" in 10 hours during Irene.

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I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a high of 26 that day with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) with an overnight low of 17, the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 24 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day and a Thursday morning low of 20, the snow pack Thursday (16th) probably due more to compression than anything is 18.8 inches.

After a high of 35 Thursday and a Friday morning low of 11, the snow pack Friday (17th) morning is 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday and a Saturday morning low of 10, the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 23, Sunday (19th) morning is 15.1 inches.

After a high of 44 Sunday (19th) with sun most of the day and a Monday morning low of 16, the snow pack Monday (20th) morning is 12.6 inches.

After a high of 49 Monday (20th) with sun most of the day and a Tuesday morning low of 32, the snow pack Tuesday (21st) morning is 11.0 inches.

Yesterday 1.6 inches in depth was lost, the day before with equal sunshine on a day 5 degrees colder 2.5 inches. I can only attribute that to the snow continuing to compress down on itself making the LE for the remaining inches more difficult to melt each day. The research continues.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February incredibly it stands at 78 days and counting this season. Nothing to complain about when looking back.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....thru period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........21-Mar-17.........11................25.7

...............................Totals......78................70.7

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like all the tree and shrub growth is obstructing the sensor in NYC causing an artificially low reading again. All the other stations are generally in the -2 to -3 so far this month. A poster commended that they were out there recently and the sensor is even hidden from sunlight without the foliage during the cold season.

NYC...-4.1...LGA...-1.8...JFK...-3.2...ISP...-3.0...BDR...-2-2...EWR...-3.1

So at least their consistent. Their snow totals are usually low and have been with a few exceptions for years, and now to go with that their temperatures too. At least if they're going to be incorrect they may as well get everything wrong.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

CAD signal getting stronger in the guidance the closer that we get. Notice how the warm front is struggling to get past I-80 now over the weekend when before it made it well north.  

new run

NEW.thumb.png.3e3c2bd2e5e26fa69276f453812fec76.png

 

old run

 

OLD.thumb.png.efe07f9e98b2273f007aa5e789123ed5.png

 

 

 

Yeah, it seems the Euro is beginning to cool down for this weekend.

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

CAD signal getting stronger in the guidance the closer that we get. Notice how the warm front is struggling to get past I-80 now over the weekend when before it made it well north.  

new run

NEW.thumb.png.3e3c2bd2e5e26fa69276f453812fec76.png

 

old run

 

OLD.thumb.png.efe07f9e98b2273f007aa5e789123ed5.png

 

 

 

 

And take a look at hour 234.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

CAD signal getting stronger in the guidance the closer that we get. Notice how the warm front is struggling to get past I-80 now over the weekend when before it made it well north.  

new run

NEW.thumb.png.3e3c2bd2e5e26fa69276f453812fec76.png

 

old run

 

OLD.thumb.png.efe07f9e98b2273f007aa5e789123ed5.png

The CMC (bless its heart) was however admittedly showing a very strong CAD as early as to or three days ago. I'm looking at that High over eastern Canada as we move through late week/early next week. Seems like the models can't tell quite how progressive it's going to be. Should be interesting. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

CAD signal getting stronger in the guidance the closer that we get. Notice how the warm front is struggling to get past I-80 now over the weekend when before it made it well north.  

new run

NEW.thumb.png.3e3c2bd2e5e26fa69276f453812fec76.png

 

old run

 

OLD.thumb.png.efe07f9e98b2273f007aa5e789123ed5.png

 

 

 

I'm guessing the 00z Euro was a wet run with the boundary focused overhead?

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

Nope

Well that doesn't exactly make sense. If the boundary remains overhead or in the area it should be the focus point.

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well that doesn't exactly make sense. If the boundary remains overhead or in the area it should be the focus point.

0z Euro has the biggest totals up in VT over to upstate NY and into MI.  Fairly dry around here through day 10 verbatim.

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12Z GFS still has a very active pattern around here with lots of storm chances, especially starting on Sunday into Monday.

Not going to play out like this, but nice to see some ensemble support for a good soaking on Monday with much more to come beyond.

gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_22.png

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24 minutes ago, Morris said:

57 in the park.

Pretty big melt down occuring. That's helping to allow temps to soar. Amazing there is any snow left here. We do not even have piles left on the south shore

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Looks like NYC will get to within a few degrees of it's coldest temperature March 20-31 since 2000. The recent record was 21 degrees during March 2014.Quick warm up for this weekend before the spring backdoor cold front season kicks off in style.

 

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like NYC will get to within a few degrees of it's coldest temperature March 20-31 since 2000. The recent record was 21 degrees during March 2014.Quick warm up for this weekend before the spring backdoor cold front season kicks off in style.

 

Hey bud what's the departure from normal this month for Central Park so far?

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Hey bud what's the departure from normal this month for Central Park so far?

NYC is biased a bit cold due to the sunlight getting blocked from all the vegetation overgrowth. But most places are in the -1 to -3 range.

NYC...-3.6...LGA...-1.2...JFK...-2.8...ISP...-2.6...BDR...-1.9...EWR...-2.6

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC is biased a bit cold due to the sunlight getting blocked from all the vegetation overgrowth. But most places are in the -1 to -3 range.

NYC...-3.6...LGA...-1.2...JFK...-2.8...ISP...-2.6...BDR...-1.9...EWR...-2.6

Also LGA has been running warm for  a year now...it's departures have been considerbily warmer than surrounding stations almost every month...using the same normals, this shouldn't  be...again this month.

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32 minutes ago, doncat said:

Also LGA has been running warm for  a year now...it's departures have been considerbily warmer than surrounding stations almost every month...using the same normals, this shouldn't  be...again this month.

That may be the influence of the warmer LI Sound since its departures haven been running close to BDR recently. LGA finished the winter 3rd warmest on record with BDR close at 4th warmest.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That may be the influence of the warmer LI Sound since its departures haven been running close to BDR recently. LGA finished the winter 3rd warmest on record with BDR close at 4th warmest.

Good point. I've noticed too LGA while always a warm spot, has been especially warm for a while now. I wonder if the extensive construction going on there is a factor.

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