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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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After an afternoon high of 29 Wednesday (22nd) with sun and high winds most of the day and an impressive Thursday morning low of 10, the snow pack Thursday (23rd) morning is 6.8 inches.

Yesterday only 0.7 inches in snow depth was lost, despite a bright March sun most of the day. Areas on hills sloping towards the sun all day are beginning to show bare spots. 80 days and counting for at least 1 inch of snow cover since November 20th. Considering how mild  other than March this winter has been I can't complain about the snowfall totals or days with a snow pack. To be continued tomorrow.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February incredibly it stands at 80 days and counting this season.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........23-Mar-17.........13................25.7

...............................Totals......80................70.7

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

After an afternoon high of 29 Wednesday (22nd) with sun and high winds most of the day and an impressive Thursday morning low of 10, the snow pack Thursday (23rd) morning is 6.8 inches.

Yesterday only 0.7 inches in snow depth was lost, despite a bright March sun most of the day. Areas on hills sloping towards the sun all day are beginning to show bare spots. 80 days and counting for at least 1 inch of snow cover since November 20th. Considering how mild  other than March this winter has been I can't complain about the snowfall totals or days with a snow pack. To be continued tomorrow.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February incredibly it stands at 80 days and counting this season.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........23-Mar-17.........13................25.7

...............................Totals......80................70.7

What did you record for the actual high though?  Mine was 40 which is certainly misleading considering it was so cold during the day as you pointed out. I was impressed that we stayed below freezing from around 7am through the rest of the day with the bright sun the entire time.   

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Classic backdoor cold front weekend coming up for late March with brief warm up on Saturday.

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_13.thumb.png.4bcd7b84c06d0b244462af452eb36160.pngecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_17.thumb.png.4adf39a33af2bc0e79fa74da395df539.png

 

 

 

GFS has us back south of the boundary on Monday, and us basically flirting with it for a few days.  That time of year I suppose.  I hate BDCFs...

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25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

What did you record for the actual high though?  Mine was 40 which is certainly misleading considering it was so cold during the day as you pointed out. I was impressed that we stayed below freezing from around 7am through the rest of the day with the bright sun the entire time.   

Rob, the high was 41 at midnight but I'm just trying to record the highs during the daytime when the snow is actually melting and or compressing or both. I'm sure there was a little of that from midnight to 7am when the temperature dropped from 41 to 32 but the far majority of the damage was done during the daylight hours the day before when the temp peaked at 56.

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16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

GFS has us back south of the boundary on Monday, and us basically flirting with it for a few days.  That time of year I suppose.  I hate BDCFs...

not buying Upton's rainy forcasts--BCDF tend to bring easterly winds and some drizzle-rare to see a 3-4 day washout with a BDCF

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not buying Upton's rainy forcasts--BCDF tend to bring easterly winds and some drizzle-rare to see a 3-4 day washout with a BDCF

That pattern supports multiple storm chances. The storm track should run along the boundary, so as long as the mean track is just to our South we should stay pretty active.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That pattern supports multiple storm chances. The storm track should run along the boundary, so as long as the mean track is just to our South we should stay pretty active.

That I agree with-it's the rainy forecast from Sat night to Tue that I'm doubting.   

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55 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

GFS has us back south of the boundary on Monday, and us basically flirting with it for a few days.  That time of year I suppose.  I hate BDCFs...

Pray for a strong SE ridge. Pumping up heights along the coast is the only way to stop/block the BDCF parade in late March and April

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

That I agree with-it's the rainy forecast from Sat night to Tue that I'm doubting.   

Probably looking at the GFS which has been pretty consistent. The 12z run has a fairly steady rain from Saturday night through Monday morning and then again for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. More than 2" of rain places around the area.

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5 hours ago, nzucker said:

Anyone buying the overrunning mixed precip event in early April?

Screenshot_20170324-020000-360x640.png

nope.   Models had the next few days being snowy and icy and it's shifted 100's of miles north.   Instead we get drizzle and light rain that amounts to very little through Sunday night

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