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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

Good point. I've noticed too LGA while always a warm spot, has been especially warm for a while now. I wonder if the extensive construction going on there is a factor.

LGA is just located in the ideal area for warmth around the area. While it gets similar high temperatures to Newark this time of year, the water influence keeps its minimum temperatures warmer. The only difference between EWR and LGA during Feb was the minimum temperatures. 

Feb...EWR...41.6...max...50.3...min 32.9....LGA...42.8...max...50.0....min...35.6

 

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42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I couldn't agree more. Yesterday was a tease. It's the wind that kills me working outside. 

Manhattan has all-or-nothing wind microclimates. Walking south or east generally protects you from N/W winds on these cold days. But walking west or (particularly) North, and you're in trouble. Serious gusts increased by wind-tunneling between buildings. 

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What a waste of a setup on the 12z Euro with that good blocking over SE Canada, 50/50 low and Southern piece ejecting out of the Plains, but the Pacific is knocking down the ridge and preventing the Southern wave from amplifying more. To me this scenario screams cut off low over the TN Valley with redevelopment off the coast.

f96.gif

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What a waste of a setup on the 12z Euro with that good blocking over SE Canada, 50/50 low and Southern piece ejecting out of the Plains, but the Pacific is knocking down the ridge and preventing the Southern wave from amplifying more. To me this scenario screams cut off low over the TN Valley with redevelopment off the coast.

f96.gif

What would it take to lessen the Pacific's impact? If its energy were to be slower to come ashore? Could the Euro be overplaying its kicker effect? 

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I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then.

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff

Typical late March climo on the 12z Euro with brief warm ups and backdoor cold fronts with the frozen precip over the higher elevation Northeast.

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18 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then.

Yeah, my area usually has a last freeze around the 2nd or 3rd week of April.  Last frost is tricky, every so often it comes in May.

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff

I didn't mean to imply that it would be a frozen event. The Pacific is preventing a typical late March Noreaster with lots of rain and wind. See March 2010.

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The 12z JMA looks like the Euro as far as the weekend is concerned, but it has a similar setup a few days later, except that the Pacific is much better. So instead of a sheared out mess in the Ohio Valley, you have a strengthening SLP over the Southern Plains with a digging trough and a massive rainmaker.

jma_z500_mslp_us_9.png

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We're in late March, you need a real anomalous setup to lock in truly cold air this time of year.

That makes sense. As a thought experiment I was thinking, if this were late Jan or Feb, what it would take for this to trend toward a bigger hit, even if not all frozen. I'm just beginning to dig into the deeper science of this after a short lifetime of basically model-watching. I can better parse where there might be amplified vorticity as a result of sheer/curve/gradients, but it's only really a start and reading the maps is still very new and difficult for me. 

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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No...one big difference between living in NW Nassau and living in NW Suffolk, is often much cooler out in Suffolk in the spring. Could be 70 in NW Nassau and 62-63 by me, really just awful

Westerly winds and 90's is tough to pull off in Suffolk during April unless it's 2002.

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36 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, my area usually has a last freeze around the 2nd or 3rd week of April.  Last frost is tricky, every so often it comes in May.

Yeah, freezes are easy to predict, but frosts are quite variable. Sometimes you'll get a freeze with no frost or frost damage on plants.

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1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

That makes sense. As a thought experiment I was thinking, if this were late Jan or Feb, what it would take for this to trend toward a bigger hit, even if not all frozen. I'm just beginning to dig into the deeper science of this after a short lifetime of basically model-watching. I can better parse where there might be amplified vorticity as a result of sheer/curve/gradients, but it's only really a start and reading the maps is still very new and difficult for me. 

Just in general, you want ridging over the Rockies which allows energy dropping down from Canada to dig Southeast. The Pacific jet has been plaguing us all Winter, which has resulted in a mean trough in the Southwest and mean ridge in the Southeast. We saw a break from that in March which allowed for the recent Wintry activity.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I didn't mean to imply that it would be a frozen event. The Pacific is preventing a typical late March Noreaster with lots of rain and wind. See March 2010.

Oh yea, I know you didn't. I just clarified in case anyone thought that's what you meant lol

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then.

It's a little early for NYC but certainly not impossible. 2014 had a last freeze on 4/15 for example. And outlying areas will get another freeze tomorrow night. 

The 12z GFS shows a cold tuck behind a late-blooming coastal around Day 8. With -5C 850s, that could easily yield another freeze on 3/29, especially with a cloudy day and clearing night behind storm.

This cold shot definitely trended less impressive. Looks like around 20F tonight for NYC instead of the mid-teens shown originally on the Euro. Tomorrow rebounds quickly into the mid 40s, much faster than imagined. Cold shots in late March tend tobe brief, no exception here.

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My low for tonight has been trending lower over the last few days.  Now they have it at 12* but that really will depend on the wind dying.  We still have complete snowcover on anything that isn't wide open, sun exposed and south facing or was nearly blown clean during the big storm last week.  Strangely enough parking lot piles are going away very quickly this time.  I'm wondering if that has to do with the excessive use of salt on the roads this year.

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40 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It's a little early for NYC but certainly not impossible. 2014 had a last freeze on 4/15 for example. And outlying areas will get another freeze tomorrow night. 

The 12z GFS shows a cold tuck behind a late-blooming coastal around Day 8. With -5C 850s, that could easily yield another freeze on 3/29, especially with a cloudy day and clearing night behind storm.

This cold shot definitely trended less impressive. Looks like around 20F tonight for NYC instead of the mid-teens shown originally on the Euro. Tomorrow rebounds quickly into the mid 40s, much faster than imagined. Cold shots in late March tend to be brief, no exception here.

Yeah, a few days ago the Euro had Northwestern NJ in the low single digits.  It seems that cold shots, even in mid-winter, tend to moderate.  Of course there are exceptions.

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