March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I strongly disagree with that. Beginning with the Easter 1970 storm I've seen many 1 foot plus storm in the HV after March 20th.

Yea, minus a freak event. That was a total freak, rogue event. Definitely not the norm for this latitude after March 20th. Didn't say a freak storm can't happen 

[bluewave]

You can see how the interior portions of the Northeast can see a late season wintery CAD set up with such a deep snowpack in place. Looks like and extended overrunning period with high pressure to the north and energy cutting underneath. The spring backdoor cold front season should kick off in style.

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see how the interior portions of the Northeast can see a late season wintery CAD set up with such a deep snowpack in place. Looks like and extended overrunning period with high pressure to the north and energy cutting underneath. The spring backdoor cold front season should kick off in style.

 

 

 

Inland river flooding threat increasing.

[JerseyWx]

37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Inland river flooding threat increasing.

The good part, like I mentioned yesterday, is that we have had some warm sunny days to get the melting going early.  I'm not saying there isn't a flood threat for the rivers, but at least it won't be like '96.

48° currently, bare spots starting to appear.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

The good part, like I mentioned yesterday, is that we have had some warm sunny days to get the melting going early.  I'm not saying there isn't a flood threat for the rivers, but at least it won't be like '96.

48° currently, bare spots starting to appear.

Wont be like 96, but CNE and NNE have an incredible snowpack right now...let's hope we don't get a cutter or two with temps 55-60 up there

[JerseyWx]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Wont be like 96, but CNE and NNE have an incredible snowpack right now...let's hope we don't get a cutter or two with temps 55-60 up there

Yeah, I agree.  This is one point where you actually hope it doesn't rain.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wont be like 96, but CNE and NNE have an incredible snowpack right now...let's hope we don't get a cutter or two with temps 55-60 up there

The February thaw saved them big time. They had an epic beginning of February snow wise followed by a complete melt down. Yes there is a ton of snow up there now but it's mainly from the one big storm last week. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, I agree.  This is one point where you actually hope it doesn't rain.

Any potential flooding will come down to where the best overrunning sets up. Tough to pin that down more than 5 days out. But both the GFS and Euro have an active storm track late March into early April with above normal precip.

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

That snowpack is holding a lot of moisture, especially up in the hills. Go look at the late March 2010 disaster. The only remaining snowpack was what was left from 2/25/10. Had about 4" of rain on 3/23 and that led to major river flooding. It was pretty much down to just piles here but up in places like West Milford they still had a solid snowpack.

[snowman19]

59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Inland river flooding threat increasing.

Once this snow all melts up our way, the GFS and Euro are showing very heavy rains with a real active storm track the rest of this month into the beginning of April. That's a lot of moisture they are dumping. If that's correct, there will be flooding issues here

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once this snow all melts up our way, the GFS and Euro are showing very heavy rains with a real active storm track the rest of this month into the beginning of April. That's a lot of moisture they are dumping. If that's correct, there will be flooding issues here

That's always the problem with late season big snowfall around here. It's a problem that city folks and those that live on Long Island never deal with.

[Dan76]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's always the problem with late season big snowfall around here. It's a problem that city folks and those that live on Long Island never deal with.

Ill trade ya your river flooding for my sandys/nor'easters/hurricanes.

[Wetbulbs88]

6 hours ago, Paragon said:

napalm huh- I don't think you want to be near that stuff

How much did you get in that month? over 50"? how does it compare to 2002-03?  February 2003 was a big month too.

Feb 2010 was just around 50 for Ellicott City. ~32 for the first blizz, 15 for the second and a few more here and there. For the winter we went past 80 inches, what with the December blizzard (~18 inches) and a few other significant events, particularly that southeastern storm that crept up on us too in late Jan I believe it was. 

Feb 2003 was memorable because it had the first full-on blizzard in our area since '96, and I was only 7 in '96. (Though Jan 2000 was pretty big in my area, we got around 14 inches with that 'surprise' storm.) It certainly didn't compare to 2009-2010 in terms of frequency and magnitude. Other than PDII, we didn't have anything resembling a MECS. Nothing will compare to seeing two bona fide blizzards within the span of five days in Feb 2010. 

What made '09-10 all the more special was that we got New-England type snows, but mainly concentrated into three or four events of a magnitude anomalous not only for our area, but for the entire coastal plain. I've posted elsewhere that I'm reading Kocin-Uccenelli's NE Snowstorms book now; I just wish they'd update it for that year. I'd love to see what they have to say about it.  

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Ill trade ya your river flooding for my sandys/nor'easters/hurricanes.

I don't think you realize how bad the river flooding gets here. Sure, you can get some coastal flooding or a freak storm like Sandy that only comes once a lifetime if that. Around here, once the water table gets high, it takes less and less rain each time. That's why from March 2010 through August 2011 we had six top ten all time floods, including the flooding associated with Irene where we broke the old record crest by 2 1/2 feet.

[nzucker]

10 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Feb 2010 was just around 50 for Ellicott City. ~32 for the first blizz, 15 for the second and a few more here and there. For the winter we went past 80 inches, what with the December blizzard (~18 inches) and a few other significant events, particularly that southeastern storm that crept up on us too in late Jan I believe it was. 

Feb 2003 was memorable because it had the first full-on blizzard in our area since '96, and I was only 7 in '96. (Though Jan 2000 was pretty big in my area, we got around 14 inches with that 'surprise' storm.) It certainly didn't compare to 2009-2010 in terms of frequency and magnitude. Other than PDII, we didn't have anything resembling a MECS. Nothing will compare to seeing two bona fide blizzards within the span of five days in Feb 2010. 

What made '09-10 all the more special was that we got New-England type snows, but mainly concentrated into three or four events of a magnitude anomalous not only for our area, but for the entire coastal plain. I've posted elsewhere that I'm reading Kocin-Uccenelli's NE Snowstorms book now; I just wish they'd update it for that year. I'd love to see what they have to say about it.  

I had 48" that month in Dobbs Ferry, NY. Got 26" on 2/25, 13" on 2/10, and 6.5" on 2/16. There was a few inches with an arctic front around 2/3 as well. Just an incredible month, even missing the monster 2/5 storm.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't think you realize how bad the river flooding gets here. Sure, you can get some coastal flooding or a freak storm like Sandy that only comes once a lifetime if that. Around here, once the water table gets high, it takes less and less rain each time. That's why from March 2010 through August 2011 we had six top ten all time floods, including the flooding associated with Irene where we broke the old record crest by 2 1/2 feet.

Exactly. The ground was already super saturated when Hurricane Irene hit in August, 2011. The soil moisture was crazy high and all rivers, lakes, reservoirs and streams were at capacity. Couldn't have come at a worse time. It was the worst flooding I ever saw in my life

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. The ground was already super saturated when Hurricane Irene hit in August, 2011. The soil moisture was crazy high and all rivers, lakes, reservoirs and streams were at capacity. Couldn't have come at a worse time. It was the worst flooding I ever saw in my life

That was an amazing wet stretch that included the snowy Winters of 2010 and 2011, and it's amazing how relatively dry we've been since September 2011.

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't think you realize how bad the river flooding gets here. Sure, you can get some coastal flooding or a freak storm like Sandy that only comes once a lifetime if that. Around here, once the water table gets high, it takes less and less rain each time. That's why from March 2010 through August 2011 we had six top ten all time floods, including the flooding associated with Irene where we broke the old record crest by 2 1/2 feet.

Serious flooding happens here much more often than just during storms like Irene and Sandy. The last storm flooded populated areas on the bays here, the storm in January had moderate to major coastal flooding in places, heavy rain causing street and basement flooding etc. Sandy was devastating beyond what we've seen in many decades, but it's by no means the only storm that's caused significant flooding on the coast lately.

[Dan76]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Serious flooding happens here much more often than just during storms like Irene and Sandy. The last storm flooded populated areas on the bays here, the storm in January had moderate to major coastal flooding in places, heavy rain causing street and basement flooding etc. Sandy was devastating beyond what we've seen in many decades, but it's by no means the only storm that's caused significant flooding on the coast lately.

Yup...there's still people out of their houses,alot more people affected

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Serious flooding happens here much more often than just during storms like Irene and Sandy. The last storm flooded populated areas on the bays here, the storm in January had moderate to major coastal flooding in places, heavy rain causing street and basement flooding etc. Sandy was devastating beyond what we've seen in many decades, but it's by no means the only storm that's caused significant flooding on the coast lately.

I didn't mean to imply that only storms like Sandy cause problems along the coast. 

Basement flooding in one thing, how about water up to the second flood of some houses. I rescued people off roofs after Irene.

[Wetbulbs88]

16 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I had 48" that month in Dobbs Ferry, NY. Got 26" on 2/25, 13" on 2/10, and 6.5" on 2/16. There was a few inches with an arctic front around 2/3 as well. Just an incredible month, even missing the monster 2/5 storm.

Yeah that late Feb storm made up for 2/5 up here. I remember being greedily miffed by that one haha. 

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yeah that late Feb storm made up for 2/5 up here. I remember being greedily miffed by that one haha. 

09-10 was a great winter for snowfall...I had 68" in Dobbs Ferry. I had a similar total (70") in 10-11, but it came with much colder conditions and long-lasting snowpack. After NYC had its snowiest February on record in 2010, 2011 had the 2nd most days with consecutive snow cover in Central Park, behind only 1947-48. Snow cover began with the Boxing Day Blizzard and lasted through mid February. It was melted out by a torch but then returned with 8" on 2/21.

The 2/25 Snowicane was my best storm ever, 26" of snow along with 30-40mph winds, and around 3" of liquid. Everyone else mixed while my hilltop stayed all snow. Nothing like seeing a nuking blizzard in your hometown.

Snowfall definitely seems to be on the increase since 2002-03 started the run of 4 consecutive 40" winters at Central Park. We had snowy winters in 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16. This year and 08-09 were slightly above average as well. You wonder how long this can last with the warming climate.

It was nice to get a significant March snowfall given how many cold Marches we've had. March '14 was -4F on temps with 0.5" snow; we watched while DC got pounded 3 times, then watched a 980mb low go OTS on 3/28. March '13 had a good ocean low/Norlun, but we only got 4-8" while New England had 20"+. This was probably the most exciting March event since 2009. However, the 20" snowpack after the two Mar 2015 events was awesome too.

 

[Morris]

Tomorrow seems like the first AN day in a while.

[Morris]

Going to be a cheap midnight high on Wednesday. Euro has the daytime high as 30, but in the 40's the midnight before.

 

Saturday really depends on the front timing. Euro has it really warm at 18z before temps tank behind the backdoor later. Sunday, Monday are way BN.

[snywx]

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning even with frigid overnight temps near 10 the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 22 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day the snow pack Thursday (16th) morning was 18.8. Probably more compression than anything.

After a high of 35 Thursday the snow pack Friday (17th) morning was 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is down to 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday with clouds and snow showers most of the day the snow pack is 15.1 inches Sunday (19th) morning.

After a high of 44 Sunday with sun most of the day the snow pack is 12.6 inches Monday (20th) morning.

To be continued tomorrow morning.

At 2pm I had 12" at the stake.. Lost 12" in the last 6 days

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Morris said:

Going to be a cheap midnight high on Wednesday. Euro has the daytime high as 30, but in the 40's the midnight before.

 

Saturday really depends on the front timing. Euro has it really warm at 18z before temps tank behind the backdoor later. Sunday, Monday are way BN.

Be interesting to see if the Euro is right about all the freezing rain to our north. Post day 5 P-TYPES are usually a crapshoot, but the CAD signal looks legit.

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

3 hours ago, nzucker said:

09-10 was a great winter for snowfall...I had 68" in Dobbs Ferry. I had a similar total (70") in 10-11, but it came with much colder conditions and long-lasting snowpack. After NYC had its snowiest February on record in 2010, 2011 had the 2nd most days with consecutive snow cover in Central Park, behind only 1947-48. Snow cover began with the Boxing Day Blizzard and lasted through mid February. It was melted out by a torch but then returned with 8" on 2/21.

The 2/25 Snowicane was my best storm ever, 26" of snow along with 30-40mph winds, and around 3" of liquid. Everyone else mixed while my hilltop stayed all snow. Nothing like seeing a nuking blizzard in your hometown.

Snowfall definitely seems to be on the increase since 2002-03 started the run of 4 consecutive 40" winters at Central Park. We had snowy winters in 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16. This year and 08-09 were slightly above average as well. You wonder how long this can last with the warming climate.

It was nice to get a significant March snowfall given how many cold Marches we've had. March '14 was -4F on temps with 0.5" snow; we watched while DC got pounded 3 times, then watched a 980mb low go OTS on 3/28. March '13 had a good ocean low/Norlun, but we only got 4-8" while New England had 20"+. This was probably the most exciting March event since 2009. However, the 20" snowpack after the two Mar 2015 events was awesome too.

 

 

The best two winters of my life, certainly. 72" here in 09-10 with a 48" February as well. 2010-11 had 57.7" with snow cover from Dec 26th-Feb 17th, 54 consecutive days. 

In the early-mid 2000s I marveled at how well we were doing in December, and wondered if we'd ever have good Marches. Now, the opposite is true. Since 2013, March has featured a propensity for cold/snow and December's furnaced. In 2015, I had snow cover through March 10th, with 17" for the entire month. This month I had about 10" with 10 consecutive days of snow cover and 7 nights 20F or colder. 

I personally much prefer the front-loaded winters like 2010-11 which trail off in mid February, rather than winter just initiating in mid February. Snow preservation and cold are important factors of "winter enjoyment" for me. Obviously, it tends to be easier to hold snow cover in the low sun angle months, which we've been wasting for several years now. To have 10 days of snow pack this month with a sun angle equivalent to late September is extremely impressive.

[Wetbulbs88]

18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The best two winters of my life, certainly. 72" here in 09-10 with a 48" February as well. 2010-11 had 57.7" with snow cover from Dec 26th-Feb 17th, 54 consecutive days. 

In the early-mid 2000s I marveled at how well we were doing in December, and wondered if we'd ever have good Marches. Now, the opposite is true. Since 2013, March has featured a propensity for cold/snow and December's furnaced. In 2015, I had snow cover through March 10th, with 17" for the entire month. This month I had about 10" with 10 consecutive days of snow cover and 7 nights 20F or colder. 

I personally much prefer the front-loaded winters like 2010-11 which trail off in mid February, rather than winter just initiating in mid February. Snow preservation and cold are important factors of "winter enjoyment" for me. Obviously, it tends to be easier to hold snow cover in the low sun angle months, which we've been wasting for several years now. To have 10 days of snow pack this month with a sun angle equivalent to late September is extremely impressive.

Very much miss those December storms of the 2000's. For a few years there, when I was in high school, I could count on a storm right around December 5-8; it was odd how often that time frame came through. 

On the other hand, my desire for snow pack/preservation has decreased a bit since moving into the city. Perhaps that's only natural considering much of the existing snow just gets sooty and gross. I miss the snow pack in the idylls. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

The best two winters of my life, certainly. 72" here in 09-10 with a 48" February as well. 2010-11 had 57.7" with snow cover from Dec 26th-Feb 17th, 54 consecutive days. 

In the early-mid 2000s I marveled at how well we were doing in December, and wondered if we'd ever have good Marches. Now, the opposite is true. Since 2013, March has featured a propensity for cold/snow and December's furnaced. In 2015, I had snow cover through March 10th, with 17" for the entire month. This month I had about 10" with 10 consecutive days of snow cover and 7 nights 20F or colder. 

I personally much prefer the front-loaded winters like 2010-11 which trail off in mid February, rather than winter just initiating in mid February. Snow preservation and cold are important factors of "winter enjoyment" for me. Obviously, it tends to be easier to hold snow cover in the low sun angle months, which we've been wasting for several years now. To have 10 days of snow pack this month with a sun angle equivalent to late September is extremely impressive.

Less than an hour north of you, 09-10 was probably around half that; as I've noted before, parts of CNJ were too far north for the mid atlantic storms, too far south for the "snowicaine" we saw something in each storm, even a few inches 2/6, but never got the brunt of any of them. Didn't matter though because we did have three decent storms. 10-11 was the year for us here, starting with Boxing Day. Also good was 13-14, liked that one the best due to number of storms. 14-15 was full of piddly events that totaled up. Butmy all time favorite was 94, it just never let up, historic ice ( like two inches thick ) record cold, two back to back storms in Feb, a sleet storm in March, it just kept coming. Finally one warmer night in March I heard pinging like sleet on the roof; a gas pipeline blew up miles from me and destroyed an entire condo development, miraculously only one person died, of a heart attack. What I thought was sleet was debris from the blast miles away....it made national news. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Very much miss those December storms of the 2000's. For a few years there, when I was in high school, I could count on a storm right around December 5-8; it was odd how often that time frame came through. 

On the other hand, my desire for snow pack/preservation has decreased a bit since moving into the city. Perhaps that's only natural considering much of the existing snow just gets sooty and gross. I miss the snow pack in the idylls. 

Dec 03 had a big one, so did Dec 02 IIRc, but also Dec 95. A good snow in Dec used to be a harbinger for the rest of the winter; the past two years we've been getting snows even after poor Decembers, so don't know if that will hold.