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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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35 minutes ago, nzucker said:

My forecast already has low 20s for Wednesday night/Thursday AM which is pretty cold for March 23rd. Looks like a major warmup by the weekend. I think the 3/23 trough could be our last shot at snow.

Going by Weather Underground, Wednesday looks like upper 20s for me, with low teens at night.  Very cold indeed

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6th coldest March 10-17 in NYC since 1876. Big change from last year which was 2nd warmest.

 

1 1900-03-17 25.9 0
2 1885-03-17 26.8 0
3 1896-03-17 27.0 0
4 1916-03-17 28.1 0
5 1888-03-17 28.3 0
6 2017-03-17 28.6 0
7 1892-03-17 28.7 0
8 1932-03-17 29.2 0
9 1960-03-17 29.5 0

 

 

1 1990-03-17 58.3 0
2 2016-03-17 55.1 0
3 1977-03-17 53.0 0
4 2012-03-17 51.9 0
5 1898-03-17 51.0 1
6 1927-03-17 50.2 0
7 2006-03-17 49.4 0
8 1945-03-17 49.2 0
9 1973-03-17 48.8 0
- 1921-03-17 48.8 0
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Mean temperature of 35.7F so far this month here. That's a colder mean temp than Dec, Jan, and Feb. Very impressive for the first three weeks of March. -5.4 departure.

Will have to monitor some of those stronger surface highs w/ bowling balls cutting underneath. Likely not much for our area, but obviously nothing can be ruled out. The source region is still quite chilly w/ the anomalous cold on our side of the hemisphere. The short wave at D4-5 looks unfavorable for much pcpn further north as it's sheared out; definitely a better shot w/ that one at D7.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Euro crushes the whole area next weekend with over a foot of snow for NYC and over 20 inches for interior areas.

It's something to track but things are going to change constantly from run to run. It'll probably be gone at 0Z.  Not only that, climo pretty much says no to getting a foot in the city at the end of March.

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43 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It's something to track but things are going to change constantly from run to run. It'll probably be gone at 0Z.  Not only that, climo pretty much says no to getting a foot in the city at the end of March.

I think we've learned our lesson. Whatever happens won't be an all out blizzard. I only remember one, April 82, that was a cold all snow event, in the spring. The 2003 April storm was a wet paste snow, which melted rapidly, which of course is what you'd expect.

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Hopefully next weekend's event doesn't happen since I have travel and outdoor plans. Of course with my luck, that's when it finally works out and the Euro today verifies. I agree that the high in Canada needs to be watched and a cutting low might be shunted south and/or there will be wintry precip. 

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41 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I think we've learned our lesson. Whatever happens won't be an all out blizzard. I only remember one, April 82, that was a cold all snow event, in the spring. The 2003 April storm was a wet paste snow, which melted rapidly, which of course is what you'd expect.

Blizzard conditions were met last storm. 

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Blizzard conditions were met last storm. 

I'm not sure if we met blizzard conditions for a bit early in the morning in CNJ; the changeover to sleet was early, and we accumulated around 6 inches. Someone here should know for sure, but I am under the impression we did not.

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm not sure if we met blizzard conditions for a bit early in the morning in CNJ; the changeover to sleet was early, and we accumulated around 6 inches. Someone here should know for sure, but I am under the impression we did not.

I doubt very mucb BX meant Blizzard conditions met in NYC proper, they were met in some some of the far outlying suburbs and just outside of the Upton coverage region as per the report I read

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5 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

I doubt very mucb BX meant Blizzard conditions met in NYC proper, they were met in some some of the far outlying suburbs and just outside of the Upton coverage region as per the report I read

Swf isnt outside of uptons area. And no, i meant "we" as in this subforum. Read into that how you wish ;)

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7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Mean temperature of 35.7F so far this month here. That's a colder mean temp than Dec, Jan, and Feb. Very impressive for the first three weeks of March. -5.4 departure.

Will have to monitor some of those stronger surface highs w/ bowling balls cutting underneath. Likely not much for our area, but obviously nothing can be ruled out. The source region is still quite chilly w/ the anomalous cold on our side of the hemisphere. The short wave at D4-5 looks unfavorable for much pcpn further north as it's sheared out; definitely a better shot w/ that one at D7.

35.4 here after today...and remember how warm the month started out... 71 on the 1st.

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Finally getting back to the familiar pattern of an Arctic shot Wed-Thu followed by a warm up next weekend.

 

ecmwf_t2min_nyc_19.thumb.png.c72ecf6d4056472cc43341b0368b54e5.png

ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_29.thumb.png.2a06bd0989f54fcbfaa34e871da0103f.png

 

 

Looks great! Fitting since tomorrow is the first day of astronomical spring. Looking forward to the warm weather starting next weekend. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing!

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