March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Uhhh...that is insane...

 

5 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I believe very soon we will see 80+ even in Jan or Feb

The temperature swings on the 12Z EPS are pretty extreme.Near to possible record warmth on March 1st followed by temps falling into the 20's a few days later. It then reloads the ridge for milder temps again before colder temps sweep back in again. Would be nice if we could get one last snow event somewhere in the mix. But it may be hard to pin down outside 3 to 5 days with such a rapid back and forth pattern.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

March will likely open with an EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern before the AO goes negative for what will likely be a short period of time. Such a pattern is typically much warmer than normal during the first week of March. Both March 1 and March 2 could have a high temperature of 60° or above. On March 1, a figure of 65° or higher appears likely (the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all put a 70° temperature within reach). Such warmth during the first week of March has often provided a signal that March will wind up warmer than normal

Some data is below:

[psv88]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March will likely open with an EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern before the AO goes negative for what will likely be a short period of time. Such a pattern is typically much warmer than normal during the first week of March. Both March 1 and March 2 could have a high temperature of 60° or above. On March 1, a figure of 65° or higher appears likely (the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all put a 70° temperature within reach). Such warmth during the first week of March has often provided a signal that March will wind up warmer than normal

Some data is below:

Did you copy this post from January and February? Seems that way.. 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Did you copy this post from January and February? Seems that way.. 

No, but it sure feels like "Groundhog Day."

[WeatherFeen2000]

7 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I believe very soon we will see 80+ even in Jan or Feb

That's pushing it buddy! 

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That's pushing it buddy! 

I hope I'm wrong but if we stay on this current trend....could happen!

[WEATHERBUFF]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

March will likely open with an EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern before the AO goes negative for what will likely be a short period of time. Such a pattern is typically much warmer than normal during the first week of March. Both March 1 and March 2 could have a high temperature of 60° or above. On March 1, a figure of 65° or higher appears likely (the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all put a 70° temperature within reach). Such warmth during the first week of March has often provided a signal that March will wind up warmer than normal

Some data is below:

Stats are great, but in this current climate anything is possible. I do feel however that most months from now on will be above to way above the 1981-2010 average.

[MJO812]

Blocking on the way?

[uncle W]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

March will likely open with an EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern before the AO goes negative for what will likely be a short period of time. Such a pattern is typically much warmer than normal during the first week of March. Both March 1 and March 2 could have a high temperature of 60° or above. On March 1, a figure of 65° or higher appears likely (the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all put a 70° temperature within reach). Such warmth during the first week of March has often provided a signal that March will wind up warmer than normal

Some data is below:

March 1972 came in with two straight days in the 70's and the month ended up colder than average...I believe March 74 had a seventy degree day the first week and a snowstorm on the 29th...

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Stats are great, but in this current climate anything is possible. I do feel however that most months from now on will be above to way above the 1981-2010 average.

The relationship among synoptic patterns does not appear to have changed greatly, but all produced warmer readings than the 1981-2010 baseline this winter.

1981-2010 Baseline (December, January, February):
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 35.9°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 40.9°
All others: 34.9°
All: 35.5°

December 1, 2016-February 26, 2017:
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 38.7°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 43.2°
All others: 38.4°
All: 39.0°

Note: 80% of days in the 12/1-2/26 period have had an AO+.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 1972 came in with two straight days in the 70's and the month ended up colder than average...I believe March 74 had a seventy degree day the first week and a snowstorm on the 29th...

That's correct. The most recent case where there was at least a 65° reading in the first week of March with a below normal monthly average was 2009. The anomaly was 0.1° below normal.

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's correct. The most recent case where there was at least a 65° reading in the first week of March with a below normal monthly average was 2009. The anomaly was 0.1° below normal.

1976 had another 70 degree day the first week of March and a snowstorm the second week...1880, 1964 and 1961 had 70 degree days on the 5th...all of them got a little snow the second week...

[donsutherland1]

Just now, uncle W said:

1976 had another 70 degree day the first week of March and a snowstorm the second week...1880, 1964 and 1961 had 70 degree days on the 5th...all of them got a little snow the second week...

I believe we'll see measurable snowfall in March, too. The most likely timing runs from the middle of the first week of March to the middle of March. If the forecast blocking lasts a little longer, the proverbial window of opportunity could persist for a little longer, too.

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe we'll see measurable snowfall in March, too. The most likely timing runs from the middle of the first week of March to the middle of March. If the forecast blocking lasts a little longer, the proverbial window of opportunity could persist for a little longer, too.

I'm with you Don...The ao/nao forecast looks as good as it has all winter...

[Morris]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The relationship among synoptic patterns does not appear to have changed greatly, but all produced warmer readings than the 1981-2010 baseline this winter.

1981-2010 Baseline (December, January, February):
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 35.9°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 40.9°
All others: 34.9°
All: 35.5°

December 1, 2016-February 26, 2017:
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 38.7°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 43.2°
All others: 38.4°
All: 39.0°

Note: 80% of days in the 12/1-2/26 period have had an AO+.
 

 

^^^^

[WEATHERBUFF]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The relationship among synoptic patterns does not appear to have changed greatly, but all produced warmer readings than the 1981-2010 baseline this winter.

1981-2010 Baseline (December, January, February):
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 35.9°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 40.9°
All others: 34.9°
All: 35.5°

December 1, 2016-February 26, 2017:
EPO-/PNA-/AO+: 38.7°
EPO+/PNA-/AO+: 43.2°
All others: 38.4°
All: 39.0°

Note: 80% of days in the 12/1-2/26 period have had an AO+.
 

 

At my location December was average temperature wise with above normal snowfall. Almost ever month for 2 years now has been above the 1981-2010 averages.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There just is no reason to go cold with a monthly temperature forecast anymore unless we get some extreme blocking to temporarily offset the new warmer background state. We had extended cold with the 13-14 and 14-15 -EPO fest and during the first half of the 10-11 record -AO pattern. But even with those events, the cold was limited to a relative small geographic region relative to earlier eras and the warmth came rushing back in once the blocks faded. The colder periods were answered by record warmth in short order.

I think you have to be cautious this month with the temps because of the chaotic uncertain weather pattern that is being displayed on most models in March and also the MJO is going through the cold phases 1-2-3 add to that all of the blocking- but I agree I think March will end up above normal but not as above as previous months given the seasonal trends so far. I think April has a better chance of ending the streak of above normal temp months especially if the winter pattern we have seen so far extends into the first couple of weeks of April and we end up with a more active stormier weather pattern overall for the month...

[NJwx85]

10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Blocking on the way?

Should be good for a nice wrapped up windy, rainy noreaster.

[NEG NAO]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Should be good for a nice wrapped up windy, rainy noreaster.

all depends but just as good a chance of a snowstorm if it happens as the block is ready to end and the cold enough air is about to leave the northeast with it - we have seen this before......a pattern changing storm

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The important thing about the big temperature swings coming up is that the warmest days will have higher + departures than the - departures on the colder days. So in the end, the warmth will win out for the monthly departure.

yes I agreed - but you have to take into consideration that the average highs in March are several degrees higher then Feb - so the bar is higher to get above...and on the opposite end the seasonal lows are higher in March so a few snowy cold days will feature temps well below normal...the question is can we get a few snowy days and snow cover for a few - models  are hinting at it...

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Should be good for a nice wrapped up windy, rainy noreaster.

Depends on the track and amount of cold air

[NJwx85]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

all depends but just as good a chance of a snowstorm if it happens as the block is ready to end and the cold enough air is about to leave the northeast with it - we have seen this before......

 

Just now, Snow88 said:

Depends on the track and amount of cold air

LOL, the trend all season has been to weaken the +PNA and -NAO.

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

LOL, the trend all season has been to weaken the +PNA and -NAO.

even if we get a good block, I'd have to wonder how cold the air ends up under the block.   Would suck to get a great block and then have polar pacific air locked in place and get mid 30's an rain

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

yes I agreed - but you have to take into consideration that the average highs in March are several degrees higher then Feb - so the bar is higher to get above...and on the opposite end the seasonal lows are higher in March so a few snowy cold days will feature temps well below normal...the question is can we get a few snowy days and snow cover for a few - models  are hinting at it...

even at that, we could get a week of 80's like we did in March 1998...while it might be march and averages are higher than Feb, the strength of the warmth will also be stronger/higher.  The same pattern that gave us low to mid 70's in Feb can give us temps 10 degrees warmer in late March

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

even if we get a good block, I'd have to wonder how cold the air ends up under the block.   Would suck to get a great block and then have polar pacific air locked in place and get mid 30's an rain

I think some forget that this is March and not January 

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There just is no reason to go cold with a monthly temperature forecast anymore unless we get some extreme blocking to temporarily offset the new warmer background state. We had extended cold with the 13-14 and 14-15 -EPO fest and during the first half of the 10-11 record -AO pattern. But even with those events, the cold was limited to a smaller geographic region relative to earlier eras and the warmth came rushing back in once the blocks faded. The colder periods were answered by record warmth in short order.

Yes I agree and unless we have blocking we go above and if we get + epo or +ao and nao we go way above. I think all things being equal we always end up above because it looks like the so called normal is not normal anymore.

 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There just is no reason to go cold with a monthly temperature forecast anymore unless we get some extreme blocking to temporarily offset the new warmer background state. We had extended cold with the 13-14 and 14-15 -EPO fest and during the first half of the 10-11 record -AO pattern. But even with those events, the cold was limited to a smaller geographic region relative to earlier eras and the warmth came rushing back in once the blocks faded. The colder periods were answered by record warmth in short order.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think some forget that this is March and not January 

And a year in which truly cold air has been in short supply.

[Paragon]

On 2/26/2017 at 7:26 AM, bluewave said:

Really no comparison to to April 1982 with the latest blizzard and record Arctic outbreak for NYC since the 1870's and 1880's. That storm is still near the top of my favorites list despite numerous amazing events here in the 2000's.

Mine too, but I have a question for you- what was more unique, the April 1982 Blizzard or the October 2011 snowstorm? I pick April 1982 for our area, but go just a little inland and October 2011 might have been a rarer event.  Heck I even got 1.5" here in the SW part of Nassau County, and I never thought in my life I'd ever see accumulating snow in October.

 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Yes I agree and unless we have blocking we go above and if we get + epo or +ao and nao we go way above. I think all things being equal we always end up above because it looks like the so called normal is not normal anymore.

 

 

People just have to look at those global temp anomaly maps to see that the areal coverage of cold anomalies is going to be much less than warm anomalies, unless we get some kind of supervolcano eruption.

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I think you have to be cautious this month with the temps because of the chaotic uncertain weather pattern that is being displayed on most models in March and also the MJO is going through the cold phases 1-2-3 add to that all of the blocking- but I agree I think March will end up above normal but not as above as previous months given the seasonal trends so far. I think April has a better chance of ending the streak of above normal temp months especially if the winter pattern we have seen so far extends into the first couple of weeks of April and we end up with a more active stormier weather pattern overall for the month...

I actually see April and the summer going the other way, mainly because I'm well familiar with this sort of winter pattern and what usually follows is hot and dry weather.  I think spring and summer will be both warmer and drier than normal.  SE Ridge will continue being exceptionally strong.