eekuasepinniW Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: SPC SREF runs have been slowly increasing svr probs across western CT/MA Any fun up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, eekuasepinniW said: Any fun up this way? If the warm sector can make it up your way I don't see why some activity can happen across your parts. The one thing, however, that may prevent or really decrease potential will be the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Looks like the steep lapse rates associated with EML plume remain well south of you...that could even be a bit of a question down this way. If we can manage ~7.5 C/KM lapse rates with dews near 60 and sfc temps into 60's the western part of CT may see some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: can't believe we're seeing shear values that extreme modeled with potentially several hundred J of cape. I also love that one model showing nearly over 1500 cape Where's the forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Where's the forcing? The main cold front doesn't really arrive until late overnight, however, looks like we will have several s/w disturbances move through during the day, including a rather potent looking one (on NAM at least) late Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 If convection is able to move into this type of environment it's going to take off. Any updraft that can sustain has a ton of potential to utilize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Not bad for 3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Not bad for 3/1 That 15 area has been expanding too. Do you know what the numbers quantify? All I know is the larger the number the more holy crap's come out of my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 wow...70 m/s of shear...356 J/KG of 0-6km cape, hail cape of 252 and over 200 helicity...any forcing allows for convection to develop and it has lots to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That 15 area has been expanding too. Do you know what the numbers quantify? All I know is the larger the number the more holy crap's come out of my mouth The parameters that go into it are on the bottom of the image. It's a nice tool to look at but it has its limitations, one of them being that it doesn't really factor in potential capping. Also have to look at the overall setup to get a feel for whether it's more of a linear/wind threat vs a tornado producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The parameters that go into it are on the bottom of the image. It's a nice tool to look at but it has its limitations, one of them being that it doesn't really factor in potential capping. Also have to look at the overall setup to get a feel for whether it's more of a linear/wind threat vs a tornado producer. Since they did adjustments too the algorithm too with factoring more weight towards shear and less with instability it seems to go bonkers quite a bit. It seems like a neat tool to address potential tornadic activity or extent of the potential but tough to put a great deal of stock into it I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 wait...why did we start posting in this thread? This was for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 A TORNADO Occurred on Saturday in Massachusetts!? WHAT!? HJow did I not know anything like this Could happen, let alone Happen? I was at NEC in Boston all day doing music, and then other spots in the city. No idea until I went to check for snow later in the week on NWS BOX and saw "Tornado Assessment". Holy.... Jeepers. February? With Snow coming? https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201702270328-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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