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Carvers Gap

Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion

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Euro weeklies took a round-trip zig-zag from above normal temps back to mild for weeks 2-3 now/3-4 previous. Mid-range models favor AN temps through Day 15, and they are trending warmer, so I am skeptical of the week 2 mild attempt. Both weekly products Plains cool patch may be influenced by the Southwest Monsoon. Color me skeptical of the cool patch.

Therefore I am also doubtful the Southeast gets that cool push as July flips to August. I know, pretty easy warm call with climo. All that said this year is a cakewalk compared to the heat last year. Next week dews might mix out in the afternoons; so, hotter highs may not feel worse. Could even feel slightly better than this disgustingly humid week.

Bottom line: While I favor continued slight AN, I do not see a major heat wave for our region west of the Apps.

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Looks like a good ole ridge is going to possibly set up in the Valley around mid week.Say "hello" to a more summer like pattern,especially in the western parts.Wouldn't surprise me if this area flirts with trip digits

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Yes the Southwest Monsoon assault on the West ridge has pushed it east. Central US ridge now wants to spread over the Valley at times. Sounds like billiard ball meteorology, but it describes the situation. Hopefully dews will mix out a bit in the afternoons, but Monday was discouraging down in CHA.

Still this does not look anything like the steady onslaught of last summer. Starting late next week the ridge is forecast to retreat somewhat back to the central US. In August the Midwest ridge has a soft underbelly in the South (on the Euro weeklies). I'll put my chips on normal precip. I do not plan on watering at all this year.

Then on August 21 - the Great American Eclipse - I would love to see a 598-600 ridge overhead. A true clean FROPA would work too. Go early to avoid traffic. Bring eclipse glasses, sunscreen, water, Gatorade, a deck of cards, other games, books and food.

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August will be warmer than both sets of weeklies show. All summer they have missed ridge extensions into the Mid South and Mid Atlantic. This week, while 2-3 weeks out, they failed to see the Midwest heat.

I still like normal precip. Keep temps slightly above normal. That said, current indications are no clear ridge for the eclipse. Clean fropa works, but not the same day!

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After the fake-down 18-24 months ago, I figure this QBO trend is real. In contrast to that rare stall, usually the QBO follows through.

With ENSO I am still not sold on neutral ATMO response, regardless of SSTs. Indian and Pacific Ocean convection patterns are still Nina-ish. 

Solar cycle is probably not quite there yet. So, I'll go winter closer to normal which is a huge improvement but still not spectacular.

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I will easily take a normal winter.  I am just glad that we may not have to fight the QBO all winter.  So many cards have to be just right for southern snow....that was a big player to be aligned against us last year.  I ignored it and shouldn't have.   Nadas are iffy here.  I generally like a weak Nina or Nino.  We need some type of driver.  But get the positive QBO out of the way...we now stand a better chance.  How is the PDO looking?  Favorable or no?

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Looking like Jeff has nailed the late summer pattern per the Weeklies.  Latesr run has normal precip w temps normal or slightly BN for the forum area depending on location.  That has been translating to slightly above for temps as a general trend for here.  

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Thanks. About the PDO right now it is ever so slightly positive. PDO has been wavering for months. A low value either way and one can skip it. A robust positive value is a cold signal, all else equal. Robust negative is warm aee. I expect it near neutral this year like ENSO. My two big factors (subject to change) are the -QBO and lingering Nina-ish convection signals. Of course they are opposite signals for the South, lol. AO is not yet really predictable but it could be a tie breaker. I like near normal or even slightly AN which is till a great improvement. MJO and NAO may be greater factors for sub-seasonal forecasting; they have been shut out of recent winters somewhat. 

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I'm hoping we can keep the moisture flowing, last year at this time the dry heat was baking things. We seem to be in a whole lot better shape this year, but after having the forestry service stationed in my yard to fight a fire 200 feet away on the ridge behind my house, I'm still a little wary.

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Appears the highest summer heat and humidity are past. The 1-15 day forecast looks at or BN. After August 15th it is difficult to match July heat as normal temps slowly but surely fade. CFS weeklies bring seasonable warmth the end of August, but normal will not top July. Euro (updates tonight) is meh all August. Soon it will be time to get neurotic over the mid-term models and the eclipse, lol!

Note in my previous post above John: Revised PDO sign descriptions. Believe I had them reversed before. I'm more visual anyway.

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Gotta say, I like those Weeklies.  By mid Sept, the first hints of snow are depicted in the northern Rockies.  Very normal for that time of year, but just a reminder of the annual pendulum swinging towards fall and winter.  Man, I like that look for August...Jeff already has a great description above.

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Had a high of 74 Saturday, 82 yesterday and it's 71 with heavy rain this afternoon. It's been feeling like late September the past several days. Looking at adding 2-4 inches of rain this week before drying out again but sticking with normal to bn temps over the next couple of weeks.  Hopefully we're setting up for a normal or bn fall with normal or above normal rainfall. The polar opposite of last year.

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We finally had a very nice rainfall last night, today, and this evening. 1.33in so far at the house. I know a lot of people have fared well this summer in the rainfall department, but today's rain was the heaviest we've had since May here. Places to the north, south, east, and west would be getting good rainfall this summer, while we'd get the crumbs. I had less than 2in of rain the entire month of July, and most of that was early on in the month. After July 4th, it had just been hot and dry here. Maybe we are turning the corner in the rainfall department now too.

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Weeklies depict a fairly cool to seasonable Lower 48 throughout.  Rainy for our forum area.  Great look for August.  We are stealing a week of autumn from summer...sort of.  Should be seasonably warm w a very slight touch of fall in the air.  Was sitting in the car line for the first day of school at 3:30.  Temp was in the mid 70s.  Usually the temps are just sweltering.  It was pleasant w passing showers.

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The Weeklies for the next 46 days are basically the same as the last report.  Maybe a bit less cooler.  Still, same set-up.  Cool and rainy in the nation's mid-section w the eastward limits at the spine of the Apps.  Snow depicted for the northern Rockies.  First signs of winter there above 8,000' for late September.  Right on time there.

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A little late...but the Weeklies from Monday are a bit warmer weeks 1-3 and then revert back to the cool pool in the middle of the country.  If I remember correctly, precip is still slightly above normal.  All but the eastern forum areas are slightly BN for the overl 46 day time frame.  Really, kind of a boring look.  LOL.  Well, it is summer....

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Thursday's Weeklies continue to show BN temps centered in the middle of the country w averaage to AN precip for the forum area.  This continues to be a welcome departure from last year.   It is almost the complete opposite.  Hopefully, the late season precip will bode well for a colorful fall, and I think it will.

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Still digesting the eclipse. Now at Day +2 it is beginning to feel more special than the KC Royals 2015 WS Title. While no big surprise there, it often takes a few days for something truly inspiring to fully sink in and lock into long-term memory. Store it with the Aurora on my/our cerebral hard-drive that nobody can hack!

Somewhat anti-climatic is a tropical storm. If Harvey can hold its 850 wind field together for the Valley next week could be interesting. Euro has the center tracking through the Mid South which leaves most of our sub-forum on the more interesting east side. Meh, compared to a total solar eclipse, but life must go on, lol!

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23 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Still digesting the eclipse. Now at Day +2 it is beginning to feel more special than the KC Royals 2015 WS Title. While no big surprise there, it often takes a few days for something truly inspiring to fully sink in and lock into long-term memory. Store it with the Aurora on my/our cerebral hard-drive that nobody can hack!

Somewhat anti-climatic is a tropical storm. If Harvey can hold its 850 wind field together for the Valley next week could be interesting. Euro has the center tracking through the Mid South which leaves most of our sub-forum on the more interesting east side. Meh, compared to a total solar eclipse, but life must go on, lol!

Euro was faster this afternoon.But it's been the most consistent thus far.But who knows if it's gonna be right.It would be a real rare event just like the eclipse if we feel the effects from two tropical systems in a season,for our area anyways.

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Last update in this thread for the Weeklies.  Will switch to John's thread for the Weeklies updates on Monday.  Those Weeklies do look similar.  Cool in the middle w the forum are BN for temps.  It has seasonal rainfall, but looks a bit drier compared to previous runs.  Of note, the SER pops late in the run...but not so late that is has to be realistically considered as a possible pattern change IMO.  Still a long ways to go, but needs to be watched as that would mean a warm fall.  I am of the opinion that the summer has been Nino-ish as it has been rainy and somewhat seasonal here in NE TN.  NInas are unseasonable warm and dry.  It almost appears that Nina climo is trying to show late in the run....let's hope that is not the case.  It showed up last Fall and took like 6-8 months to get it out of here.  Our draw four card this time is the QBO is in our favor.  It has moved to -10.48 .

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Harvey is going to shake things up.  I think no LR model has this nailed.  It quite possibly could strengthen the eastern trough/western ridge pattern.  Nothing is a given with that wondering around in TX next week.

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Harvey is bombing on GOES 16 VIS. Not good...

CFS introduces a new cool front mid-Sept. I tend to agree more with the Euro weeklies,  and a temporary SER. Carvers is right; it is not going to last long. The last tempo SER was well timed for the eclipse. Anything interesting going on in late Sept? Oh yea, storm season encore baby!

The +AMO remains about the only warm signal left. The -QBO is no head-fake; it is tanking. The +PNA seems to be happy where it is now. ENSO will be weaker this winter, so expect variability with the MJO. Oh yea, that's John's thread. Too early for a winter call other than colder than last year but probably not MB.

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