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Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion

307 posts in this topic

Euro weeklies took a round-trip zig-zag from above normal temps back to mild for weeks 2-3 now/3-4 previous. Mid-range models favor AN temps through Day 15, and they are trending warmer, so I am skeptical of the week 2 mild attempt. Both weekly products Plains cool patch may be influenced by the Southwest Monsoon. Color me skeptical of the cool patch.

Therefore I am also doubtful the Southeast gets that cool push as July flips to August. I know, pretty easy warm call with climo. All that said this year is a cakewalk compared to the heat last year. Next week dews might mix out in the afternoons; so, hotter highs may not feel worse. Could even feel slightly better than this disgustingly humid week.

Bottom line: While I favor continued slight AN, I do not see a major heat wave for our region west of the Apps.

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Looks like a good ole ridge is going to possibly set up in the Valley around mid week.Say "hello" to a more summer like pattern,especially in the western parts.Wouldn't surprise me if this area flirts with trip digits

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Yes the Southwest Monsoon assault on the West ridge has pushed it east. Central US ridge now wants to spread over the Valley at times. Sounds like billiard ball meteorology, but it describes the situation. Hopefully dews will mix out a bit in the afternoons, but Monday was discouraging down in CHA.

Still this does not look anything like the steady onslaught of last summer. Starting late next week the ridge is forecast to retreat somewhat back to the central US. In August the Midwest ridge has a soft underbelly in the South (on the Euro weeklies). I'll put my chips on normal precip. I do not plan on watering at all this year.

Then on August 21 - the Great American Eclipse - I would love to see a 598-600 ridge overhead. A true clean FROPA would work too. Go early to avoid traffic. Bring eclipse glasses, sunscreen, water, Gatorade, a deck of cards, other games, books and food.

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August will be warmer than both sets of weeklies show. All summer they have missed ridge extensions into the Mid South and Mid Atlantic. This week, while 2-3 weeks out, they failed to see the Midwest heat.

I still like normal precip. Keep temps slightly above normal. That said, current indications are no clear ridge for the eclipse. Clean fropa works, but not the same day!

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