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Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion


Carvers Gap

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+4 during July and August 2016 was nuts.  I can deal w normal temps and even just the run of the mill hot summer.  Last year w hot and dry was awful.  We normally have to pay-up at some point.   Hoping this unsettled pattern keeps the rivers full and improves the water table.  

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I expect another hot summer, but more like 2015 than 2016 crazy. My last post is just about this work week. Trough with short-waves digging in stays around a few days instead of just 36 hours. Weekend looks warm and rainy. I'm starting to buy into an unsettled pattern, so adequate rainfall, for June. Still warmer than normal though.

Not all bad news.  Usually warm and unsettled means a lot of instability and what it brings about -- thunderstorms.  It's a long way until Winter, so need some sort of interesting weather to occupy us till we get there. 

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Took a couple of months off from WxBell.  Signed back on today....  I like weather maps, even during the summer.  The current Weeklies are BN for temps throughout the run for the eastern 2/3 of the country...to July 7.  Precip is above normal...I kept seeing this BN maps on Tropical Tidbits for the Euro, so I had to give the Weeklies a look.  Now, IMO they have been unreliable during the past year.  So, take it for what it's worth.  But the recent pattern is a decent shift from winter...the ridge is in the West and trough in the East.   Really interested to see where this summer pattern leads.  (I hold Jeff's opinion above most models FWIW.  Those guys just rarely miss.  So...not trying to be contrary by posting the Weeklies. It is only one model.). Garden is cruising along...but rest assured disease will be a tough battle if the Weeklies verify.  Seasonably cool w rain...great recipe for blight, etc.

 

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Perhaps the weeklies are keying in on the active precipitation pattern. We have been verifying warmer than the weeklies show; however, I think they have done well to show more precip. That's some irony. Usually temps are easier than precip in the long range. GLAAM is up and the progressive pattern should continue. While I believe temps will verify warmer, I like the precip forecasts and do not see a death/heat SER in the next 2-4 weeks. Maybe we can get Carolina Alley going; oh wait, wrong subforum. Cheers!

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Switched the topic thread to Spring AND Summer.  Figured this was a low traffic time frame(though more than previous years at this time), so just opted to continue the Spring thread into summer.  If there are any objections, I will be glad to switch it back to only Spring which would then allow someone to create a Summer specific thread.  John, what do you think about doing the same w spring obs?  I am good either way....

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Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...far southeastern WV...western and southwestern
   VA...eastern TN...and northwest NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

   Valid 272211Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/damaging gusts
   will likely move into the area from the west early this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows scattered strong to severe
   thunderstorms generally to the west of the spine of the Appalachians
   but this activity is forecast to move east of the the existing
   severe thunderstorm watches early this evening.  Surface
   temperatures into the upper 70s-lower 80s degrees F and dewpoints in
   the 62-66 degrees F range ---resulting in moderate buoyancy (1500
   J/kg MLCAPE).  Effective shear more than adequate for storm
   organization (35-40 kt) will facilitate both severe multicell and
   supercell structures with the stronger storms.  Large hail and
   damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the more intense cores.

 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   655 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Western North Carolina
     Eastern Tennessee
     Western Virginia

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 655 PM
     until 200 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
   and generally move east/southeastward across the region through the
   evening. Locally damaging winds and bouts of severe hail will be
   possible. A more extensive squall line may move into parts of the
   region including eastern Tennessee late this evening.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south
   southwest of Crossville TN to 55 miles south southeast of Dublin VA.
   For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

 

 

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On ‎5‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 10:50 AM, John1122 said:

Looks like another mostly N/BN week or so coming up. My forecasted highs are mid to upper 70s and quite a few days of rain possible. I'm sure the shoe will drop eventually and we'll see the heat return. 

Hopefully, after two hot summers, our current weather pattern IS the other shoe dropping, and this summer will be cooler and wetter than the previous one.  I'm really enjoying the change, and hope it lasts until autumn.   

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SOI is back into a more Nino look,-9.Big drop the last couple days.CCKW ongoing,maybe some tropical genesis upcoming ?Either way enso 1+2 is more Ninaish -0.8 today,should stay - for several days

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

The last weeklies don't show no prolonged heat  and the mid south is wetter than normal through June basically

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Latest weeklies really dry out the forum area for the 46 day model run.  Probably not all bad as our reservoirs in NE TN are now sluicing due to being past full pool.  I need consistent rain for the garden...not the deluge plan that we have been on.  Turns out that we are definitely in a pattern change...and probably will see another change by mid month to a typical summer pattern which is really no surprise.   I definitely like the SOI updates as we may eventually get a clue to the upcoming winter.  I lean towards a weak Nino or possibly on the Nino side of neutral.  But I am no guru....but just seems like the models want to temper the Nino.  But many a man has been humbled by making a Nino forecast six months in advance.

On a side note, we fished Whitetop this past week along The Creeper.  Pretty amazing how much water is in those mountain streams compared to last year's extreme lows.  I seem to notice fewer fish(or I am not a great fisherman...close call there) this year.  I suspect that we have seen a reduction in trout population as thin water is warmer and easier for predators to hunt as fish are more concentrated in fewer spaces.  But still...beautiful place to spend a day.   Jeff, I suspect this is another great area for a fall photo trip for you.  

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9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Latest weeklies really dry out the forum area for the 46 day model run.  Probably not all bad as our reservoirs in NE TN are now sluicing due to being past full pool.  I need consistent rain for the garden...not the deluge plan that we have been on.  Turns out that we are definitely in a pattern change...and probably will see another change by mid month to a typical summer pattern which is really no surprise.   I definitely like the SOI updates as we may eventually get a clue to the upcoming winter.  I lean towards a weak Nino or possibly on the Nino side of neutral.  But I am no guru....but just seems like the models want to temper the Nino.  But many a man has been humbled by making a Nino forecast six months in advance.

On a side note, we fished Whitetop this past week along The Creeper.  Pretty amazing how much water is in those mountain streams compared to last year's extreme lows.  I seem to notice fewer fish(or I am not a great fisherman...close call there) this year.  I suspect that we have seen a reduction in trout population as thin water is warmer and easier for predators to hunt as fish are more concentrated in fewer spaces.  But still...beautiful place to spend a day.   Jeff, I suspect this is another great area for a fall photo trip for you.  

I didn't think the weeklies were that dry Carver.The SOI has taken a decent plunge back into a Nino look today with what seems like to me a possible unsettled pattern  past mid month.

 

Where do you fish for trout?Never been  trout fishing,usually just fish for bluegill,bass and catfish.About four years ago we got a cabin on the river in Florence.Al., had no plans to fish  but said what the heck and went out and bought some fishing gear for the kids(left my poles at home) just to try it out and got some earth worms and went out to the dock we had,that was the best bluegill catch i have ever seen.Soon as they threw the line out they had a fish on it,it was crazy !! I couldn't keep up taking fish off the hook and baiting the lines..lol.Keep telling my wife we need to go back,we just cant find the time.

AccuWeather.com® Professional   Forecast Models.png

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2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I didn't think the weeklies were that dry Carver.The SOI has taken a decent plunge back into a Nino look today with what seems like to me a possible unsettled pattern  past mid month.

 

Where do you fish for trout?Never been  trout fishing,usually just fish for bluegill,bass and catfish.About four years ago we got a cabin on the river in Florence.Al., had no plans to fish  but said what the heck and went out and bought some fishing gear for the kids(left my poles at home) just to try it out and got some earth worms and went out to the dock we had,that was the best bluegill catch i have ever seen.Soon as they threw the line out they had a fish on it,it was crazy !! I couldn't keep up taking fish off the hook and baiting the lines..lol.Keep telling my wife we need to go back,we just cant find the time.

 

I was looking at the mean anomaly which was 1-1.5" BN for precip over the next 46 days.  That looks like the control.  I prob should have been more specific.  I hope it keeps raining like the control.  

I wade-fish the South Holston.  Generators have to be off.  Lately, they are having to sluice which means they are dumping water through the flood gates.   LOL.  Might be another month(due to high water) before I can get consistently in the water which is rare.   Great sulphur mayfly hatch.  Lasts all summer with blue wing olives to follow.  I have fished out West on several occasions.  The SoHo outfishes anything I have fished there, and am less likely to get eaten by a bear here.  Though, catching a Yellowstone cutthroat is pretty awesome.  The SoHo has browns and rainbows in excellent numbers.   When the hatch is "on" the fish can be selective, but I have taken beginners who catch fish.  Before I got married many years ago, I used to put in 100 days a year fishing the mountains and tail waters.   Now, with kids I am more selective about when I go.  As for the mountains, there are some great streams in GSMNP.  I prefer to hike in about a mile or two.   The southern strain of brook trout are found at higher elevations.  Last fall, due to the drought, we stopped mtn stream fishing until the streams came-up.  They are full now.  What a difference a season makes.

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It is the control run.But the pattern looks unsettled to me in the Valley with how Asia correlates to to North America into the Valley.There looks to be a few days upcoming maybe with more diurnal storms,not sure about this even but it looks like a stormy pattern upcoming

 

ecmwf_z500a_wpac_9.png

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I agree with weekly output N/AN precip. Temps might need a nudge toward normal, but no heat waves are seen. Best chance of a June ridge is up over the Great Lakes. It would put us on the underside with ability to generate afternoon pop up thundershowers. Could be muggy though.

We can hope one of those Pac NW troughs sends another bowling ball into the Tennessee Valley like this week. I will enjoy the 2-3 mild days.

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Probably relapse into La Nina. SER all through winter. Just kidding, but I think the warm train continues...

Both oceans have majority AN SSTs. Haggling over marginal Nino 3.4 SSTs may not matter with this much warmth still abound. Oceans are simply not sinking heat right now. 

Still like a 2015 or 2012 summer outlook, hot but not 2016 absurd hot. Active jet stream should keep temps in check and rainfall near normal. Also if ridge is centered elsewhere we get normal precip. 

Unfortunately I have to go mild again this winter.

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Good rain maker tomorrow.Not much of any shear .PW's through out the Valley could hit around 2.1" at least.Should see some good storms with more or less wind in Mid Tn. and east of us in the afternoon into the evening,we are in a slight risk.Some good instabilities are  being shown in the mid afternoon.No change in this pattern tho upcoming,looks more or less up and downs.I went to a jazz festival this afternoon in downtown Nash,my car thremo showed 95 on the way there,maybe island heat going downtown but the humidity wasnt that horrid,it was pretty bearable heat,seems odd the last few summers tho.

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I would root for a solar minimum, major volcano eruption, meteor/comet impact, or nuclear war. Winter is hopelessly mild.

On 6/8/2017 at 2:19 PM, PisgahNCWeather said:

Jeff should we even root on a weak el nino or is it a lost cause with the set up for this winter?

 

 

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Potential for a weekend wash out seems to be on the table next weekend,much seems to be on what tropical genesis happens the next couple days and where it goes which seems will ride a slow moving frontal boundary.The Euro and GFS keep flip flopping,the Euro today is further east while the GFS went further west.Seems to me right now who ever gets the low pressure could see possibly up to at least 4" of rain with some potential of flash flooding,that's my thinking anyways.

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Just now, nrgjeff said:

I would root for a solar minimum, major volcano eruption, meteor/comet impact, or nuclear war. Winter is hopelessly mild.

 

That sounds all well and good and everything but I am thinking we will probably need an impact with Nibiru and then hope that knocks us a few million more miles away from the sun. Then maybe?

 

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can't complain so far, it's not nearly as hot as last June.. my 10 day forecast has 90 degrees for the hottest temp in the period.. lows cooling back down into the 60s after a brief humid spell. Incidentally, what do 'rising heights in Asia' correspond to in N. American weather? more eastern troughiness? Or, a SER? Clueless here.

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