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Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion


Carvers Gap

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From the look of the radar, and webcams around, I think there has been a bit of downsloping for areas in the Tennessee foothills today.  I've seen some sun peaking out around Greenville, TN. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/greeneville-tn/

As the low pressure pivots around to our south, that should eliminate much of the downsloping, and rainfall rates will increase in the foothills later this evening. 

 

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Euro backed off the system today in Asia,which it was showing a system into the 2nd week of May possibly for us.Looks like right now if it don't change we should be looking at a ridge into the upper plains and OV ,GWO is now showing a almost -3.5 sigma in the long range,so a potential for some below seasonal temps looks possible into the 2nd wk of May

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Trees and all things green are loving the recent rains.   But I've also noticed that despite all the heavy rain, local streams and creeks are already falling quickly around here--a testament to how dry the sub-surface soil actually was.  The soil and trees were obviously still thirsty, and hopefully the water table is now recovering from last year's extreme and exceptional drought. 

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Didn't know where to put this, but a client of mine captured the best (non photoshopped or re-touched) photo of a rainbow I have ever seen from the back deck of their home near the Bristol Motor Speedway.  She shared it with WCYB and they put their stamp on it.  Simply amazing!

I will also echo the sentiments regarding just how quickly standing water has been sucked into the ground.  It's hard to find a puddle anywhere and we ALMOST practiced baseball yesterday afternoon, not even 24 hours after the rain stopped.  We probably need several more good rains over the coming month or two to "feel" and be normal again......

Weather Rainbow Picture 04242017 Maria LaBarbera WCYB.jpg

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The reservoirs up here are starting to go to full pool or just above...see S Holston and Watauga.  Cherokee is above its levels from last summer already.  We better hope we don't get any more heavy rainfall area wide.  A writer for Little River Outfitters mentioned that TVA is probably holding back water to keep the TN River from flooding.  We got hammered over here.  Reports that the North Fork of the Holston submerged an expensive crane near Weber City where a bridge was being replaced.  You see that, 1234?  Water here is slowly receeding.  The North Fork is still raging.  

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3 hours ago, JayCee said:

AO and NAO both diving deep into negative territory as a strong Greenland Block develops and sends cool air into eastern NA by late next week.  If only it had happened 3 months ago. 

Yeah both dive down moderately into negative territory.  As we head further into late spring/summer these two components will not have a direct effect on our weather. But early May we can see the effects still. Loops like a deep trough with maybe a lot more rainfall also. 

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On 4/26/2017 at 4:57 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Pattern change or relaxation of the pattern?  What do you all say?  Looks like a switch to BN temps in the East by early to middle of next week.

The SOI has been up and down.Pattern looks up and down.The Euro is even showing life and maybe getting into phase 2 in the long range,this would be a severe phase though it looks closer to the COD so it's weak signals.There's no signs of any sustained heat ridge right now if you ask me

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15 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah both dive down moderately into negative territory.  As we head further into late spring/summer these two components will not have a direct effect on our weather. But early May we can see the effects still. Loops like a deep trough with maybe a lot more rainfall also. 

After last year's drought and fires, I'm all for keeping the rain train on track!  Along with the cooler weather, too.  It's going to feel way too hot for April today with temps pushing 90! 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like a mean trough wants to set-up in the East.   Looking like a pattern change.  Ridge out West w a somewhat transient pattern w troughs pushing East. I like it.

I noticed JB is thinking the same thing--and says this could be the coolest May since 2008 in the East.  I'm all for it after months and months of well above normal temperatures.   So far, I'm liking this Spring over 2016.  Plenty of moisture and storms, yet no major or destructive severe weather.  It's quite the blessing over last year's heat and drought. 

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31 minutes ago, JayCee said:

I noticed JB is thinking the same thing--and says this could be the coolest May since 2008 in the East.  I'm all for it after months and months of well above normal temperatures.   So far, I'm liking this Spring over 2016.  Plenty of moisture and storms, yet no major or destructive severe weather.  It's quite the blessing over last year's heat and drought. 

My WxBell account expired about a week ago.  So, I can't see Weeklies or read any of JB's work.  However, the last Weeklies that I did see and the current LR ensembles and ops are pretty adamant that the East cools off and that the West really warms-up.  Hope they are right.

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Broke the record here today from 1894 when it is was recorded at 90,hit 91 today.Possibly should break the overnight high set back in 1899 of 68,southerly winds from the south, don't see us falling below 70.Been a few records broken here so far this year in the Mid Valley.

 

Not sure what to think about the LR,but the weeklies hint at seasonable to BN.Euro is showing life getting out of the COD and possibly getting into 2 by looking at some of the ensembles in the LR,the GEFS just plain loves ph8 and it's been stuck there in the LR for several days.Asia, in he LR, looks like below heights into Korea and Japan with no big systems being shown right now.The GWO  though is going into a negative deviation in phase 2,a more Nina like pattern in around six days give or take,this would suggest a SER around this time frame possibly.

The NAO as said up above is going negative which should keep the storm suppressed further S after this one tomorrow which could possibly give you guys in the east a more severe threat  but it goes into a more = after that.But anyways,by the looks the next few days our weather will be more or less influenced by a strenghtening CCKW 

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SOI is up and down.Recent drops seems to suggest a possible severe threat upcoming into the 3-4 week of May with a more Nino  look.Euro shows the MJO out of the COD into phase 2 with some ensembles trying to get into 3,analogs when it gets into 3 is a wet pattern in the Valley.Up and down pattern by the looks today.No signs of any drought anyways upcoming

 

 

20 Apr 20171011.991012.05-17.67-4.25-2.0421 Apr 20171012.831011.50-7.64-4.87-1.8922 Apr 20171013.491010.851.80-5.03-1.5123 Apr 20171012.161010.25-3.46-5.33-1.2924 Apr 20171011.641010.80-11.18-6.04-1.3525 Apr 20171012.451010.30-1.73-6.39-1.4526 Apr 20171014.111009.7014.56-6.10-1.3627 Apr 20171014.631009.6518.67-5.48-1.1128 Apr 20171013.581011.100.65-5.68-1.0729 Apr 20171012.831011.85-10.17-5.92-1.1330 Apr 20171011.861012.35-20.77-6.31-1.36

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

SOI is up and down.Recent drops seems to suggest a possible severe threat upcoming into the 3-4 week of May with a more Nino  look.Euro shows the MJO out of the COD into phase 2 with some ensembles trying to get into 3,analogs when it gets into 3 is a wet pattern in the Valley.Up and down pattern by the looks today.No signs of any drought anyways upcoming

 

 

20 Apr 20171011.991012.05-17.67-4.25-2.0421 Apr 20171012.831011.50-7.64-4.87-1.8922 Apr 20171013.491010.851.80-5.03-1.5123 Apr 20171012.161010.25-3.46-5.33-1.2924 Apr 20171011.641010.80-11.18-6.04-1.3525 Apr 20171012.451010.30-1.73-6.39-1.4526 Apr 20171014.111009.7014.56-6.10-1.3627 Apr 20171014.631009.6518.67-5.48-1.1128 Apr 20171013.581011.100.65-5.68-1.0729 Apr 20171012.831011.85-10.17-5.92-1.1330 Apr 20171011.861012.35-20.77-6.31-1.36

Yeah today's guidance looks good for more rainfall and much cooler weather this next week into the weekend. 

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Rain and 50's forecast by Friday.  Big, big change from last weekend.  And a mean trough sets up over the New England area by this weekend, introducing the TN Valley to a cool, drier northwest flow.  A breath of fresh air, and some real Spring-like weather in the 60's, once the next system departs, instead of the 90's we endured last weekend.

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