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Spring 2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Will the MJO and ENSO shifts have significant influence?  Will our current late Feb. stormy pattern on the GFS continue as temps and dews increase in the Midwest?  And what about the rubber band theory regarding tornado frequency after relatively modest totals the last few years?  What do you think?  After a rather disappointing met winter down in my neck of the woods I'm hoping that met spring provides interesting scenarios for us to follow.

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I am in the same boat as the others, going to be active potentially hyperactive at times this Spring, pattern has been locked in like that for a while now. With the fundamental shift in the Northern Pacific from previous years, I don't expect us to have a dull Spring. Those climate model projections would have an active look to them as well, warmth in the east/southeast tells me -PNA will be a dominant feature this Spring, also the cooling along the NW/BC coastline tells me it will probably neutral or +EPO as well.

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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

 


Regionally as in Great Lakes? I want to go out to the Plains for a few days this year

If the potential for a very big event were shown in the Plains, I would go during that week. As for right now though, I'd prefer to not have to travel that far if possible.

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Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there.    

As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months.   Also thinking most active severe season since 2011.   Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts,  hot and lower than normal hurricanes.

FWLIW

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there.    

As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months.   Also thinking most active severe season since 2011.   Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts,  hot and lower than normal hurricanes.

FWLIW

Yes, I heard JB is calling for another hot summer. Looks like he thinks a weaker El Nino is coming on as well.

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47 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there.    

As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months.   Also thinking most active severe season since 2011.   Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts,  hot and lower than normal hurricanes.

FWLIW

For once I actually agree with him on everything. The only one that might end up being wrong is the lower hurricanes, but that is a toss up with the ENSO transitioning.

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20 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yes, I heard JB is calling for another hot summer. Looks like he thinks a weaker El Nino is coming on as well.

I can't believe JB would call for a hot summer with a developing El Nino. Maybe along the east coast but I'd be shocked if he called for a hot summer in most of the country. He seems to love the "Garden of Eden" summers during a developing El Nino. Although he has been talking about how the JMA shows a -PDO which could make a difference I guess in the forecast.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Bump...As was mentioned in the winter long range discussion the storm on the 12z GFS at 240 hrs this Tues. Mar. 14 means business as currently modeled and could offer snow, ice, and severe to please everyone on this board here in the Midwest as currently modeled.   One to watch if it maintains itself in subsequent runs, slows down a bit or intensifies.  There has been a signal for a storm in this period for quite some time now.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

March probably will end up warmer than average in most areas.  The pattern overall looks warmer going forward the rest of the month and the worst of the cold should be over.

Agreed, maybe the far north or eastern sections might be closer to normal or even slightly below, but those to the south or west will be above normal.

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15 minutes ago, Chambana said:

March is currently 2.5 degrees below normal here, the last time we had a month "this cold" was March 2015. As Hoosier mentioned going forward rest of the month, should chew that away. 

 

Just curious, what site are you using?  CMI is at 0.0 through March 15.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

March probably will end up warmer than average in most areas.  The pattern overall looks warmer going forward the rest of the month and the worst of the cold should be over.

True I suppose there's still some time left in the month to rack up some positive anomalies. MonthTDeptUS.png

 

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On ‎2017‎-‎02‎-‎27 at 8:30 AM, roardog said:

I can't believe JB would call for a hot summer with a developing El Nino. Maybe along the east coast but I'd be shocked if he called for a hot summer in most of the country. He seems to love the "Garden of Eden" summers during a developing El Nino. Although he has been talking about how the JMA shows a -PDO which could make a difference I guess in the forecast.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would it not be unusual to have a hot summer when an El Nino is developing? Those summers tend to be cooler than average, or average at best. I think of the summers of 1976, 1992 and 1997, to name a few, although Mount Pinatubo likely played a role in making summer 1992 so cool. One exception would appear to be 2002, which had a cool  spring, but a hot summer.

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8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would it not be unusual to have a hot summer when an El Nino is developing? Those summers tend to be cooler than average, or average at best. I think of the summers of 1976, 1992 and 1997, to name a few, although Mount Pinatubo likely played a role in making summer 1992 so cool. One exception would appear to be 2002, which had a cool  spring, but a hot summer.

The official Weatherbell summer forecast has the majority of the US with above normal temps. JB said they expect the warmest part of summer to be the first half. He doesn't explain why they have such a warm forecast when developing El Niño's are "Garden of Eden" summers according to Weatherbell. The forecasted El Niño could very well fail but JB and Daleo are really hyping it up right now.

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15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Just curious, what site are you using?  CMI is at 0.0 through March 15.

 

Wow, either I need my eyes checked, or I definitely needed another cup of coffee yesterday morning when reading the temperature map for the month, lol. Yes, you are correct, near average for the month. 

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