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Feb. 23-25th Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Winter will indeed come back with a vengeance.  Also need to watch the storm on Feb 26-27 as the GFS has shown consistency for multiple runs (EURO and CMC don't show it, though).  Very very bad news to any budding trees.

I should also note that this potential significant snowstorm will occur on the 10 year anniversary of the worst ice storm that Iowa has seen in decades and the worst that I've ever experienced in my lifetime.

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I'm becoming fairly interested in the high wind potential behind the surface low on Friday.  The Euro would indicate high wind warning criteria potential for the southeast 1/3rd of IA, and about the northern 1/3rd of IL.  Dewpoints crash from the mid 50s to the mid 20s behind the dry line/cold front.  This would indicate excellent mixing.  06z GFS looks like it mixes up to 850mb.  Would guess Euro may mix even higher, as dews are a little lower, and the surface low is several millibars lower.  Euro has a swath of 50-55kts atop the mixed layer if you base that on the 850mb the GFS shows.  Assuming a little better mixing than what the GFS shows and we'd be looking more like 55-60kts.  This would imply a region of 55-65mph gust potential from southeast Iowa through northern IL from mid morning until evening.  Still a good 130hrs or so out, so we'll likely see some changes by then.  The Euro has had a history of being too amped up with systems in this time period, only to back down as we get closer.  So far it's been pretty consistent in showing a very strong surface cyclone, and a sharp dry line quickly advancing through the MW.  Hopefully it holds true this time.  

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2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Boys I think we have ourselves a strong one comin'. Exactly when and where is kind of early to tell.... But the northern third of IA especially, WATCH OUT!!!

People of Iowa, be prepared. Order your pizzas and order your Chinese food and five cases of pop because it’s going to be a terrible snowstorm to hit Iowa... have your iPads and your iPhones charged just in case the power goes out... do your grocery shopping right now. Don’t wait for the last minute. Do it RIGHT NOW."

 

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2 hours ago, UMB WX said:

People of Iowa, be prepared. Order your pizzas and order your Chinese food and five cases of pop because it’s going to be a terrible snowstorm to hit Iowa... have your iPads and your iPhones charged just in case the power goes out... do your grocery shopping right now. Don’t wait for the last minute. Do it RIGHT NOW."

 

Frankie?

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18z GFS buries southeast MN and west central WI. That has been a winning storm track the last three years. A couple more ticks nw and us in the twin cities may finally be able to cash in, too. Looks like a stormy period for the upper Midwest to ensue afterwards.. at least per GFS. Granted it is fantasy land but the 240 hr clown maps are just bonkers for parts of the region.

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48 minutes ago, Younar said:

18z GFS buries southeast MN and west central WI. That has been a winning storm track the last three years. A couple more ticks nw and us in the twin cities may finally be able to cash in, too. Looks like a stormy period for the upper Midwest to ensue afterwards.. at least per GFS. Granted it is fantasy land but the 240 hr clown maps are just bonkers for parts of the region.

And there's been some degree of consistency or at least repeated "bonkers" maps in this range, which still is hard to take too seriously but it's more than just one run.

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45 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

And there's been some degree of consistency or at least repeated "bonkers" maps in this range, which still is hard to take too seriously but it's more than just one run.

Agree. 

I like to look at the 10-day total precip on each GFS run, just to get an idea of the pattern.  In much of the Midwest, several GFS runs in a row have shown 2-3" liquid over the next 10 days.  Yes, these are just op runs...but the consistency tells me it's a pretty reliable signal.

So, the next question becomes the exact storm tracks, i.e., rain/snow lines.  As of now, it looks to favor the upper Midwest.  While this would be annoying IMBY, all of us can at least look forward to a pattern that appears to be active during the last week of Feb into early March.  In this disaster of a Winter, it's the best we can hope for.

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4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Agree. 

I like to look at the 10-day total precip on each GFS run, just to get an idea of the pattern.  In much of the Midwest, several GFS runs in a row have shown 2-3" liquid over the next 10 days.  Yes, these are just op runs...but the consistency tells me it's a pretty reliable signal.

So, the next question becomes the exact storm tracks, i.e., rain/snow lines.  As of now, it looks to favor the upper Midwest.  While this would be annoying IMBY, all of us can at least look forward to a pattern that appears to be active during the last week of Feb into early March.  In this disaster of a Winter, it's the best we can hope for.

00z GFS is coming in a tick south with the rain/snow line thru 138hrs. Will update (by editing) once clown range comes in, just for the heck of it.

Update: Aaaaand, it's south. It's cold and snowy. Widespread swaths of 6+ inch totals. It's clown range here but again we've got strong consistency going on. The takeaway is that this is at last we'll have a cool system to keep our eyes on and somewhere someone's gonna get some snow!

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1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said:

00z GFS is coming in a tick south with the rain/snow line thru 138hrs. Will update (by editing) once clown range comes in, just for the heck of it.

Update: Aaaaand, it's south. It's cold and snowy. Widespread swaths of 6+ inch totals. It's clown range here but again we've got strong consistency going on. The takeaway is that this is at last we'll have a cool system to keep our eyes on and somewhere someone's gonna get some snow!

A little more south and colder please, 0z GFS has around 0.9" frozen IMBY with almost 2" total qpf. Interesting how the crazy uncle ukie keeps staying WAY south of all the other models.

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The first part of this is beginning to come into range on the NAM, and the 00z NAM looks preliminarily snowier than the sneak-peak glimpses of the 18z NAM. The ra to sn changeover for the 00z NAM looks swifter and sooner, if not also further south, than the 18z GFS. But even the 18z GFS itself added yet another link to a long chain of consistent ultimate heavy-snow-week signals for a large swath of the upper and even central Midwest.

Excited for upcoming the 00z Canadian and GFS

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah this looks to fit the pattern of the winter.  Heaviest snows from northern Iowa up into southern MN.  I haven't checked, but there has to be a HUGE range of seasonal snowfall totals from northern to central Iowa.  Only to get even steeper after this system I'm afraid.

HUGE gradient indeed. I guess it's "Whatever" then. Exciting hot thunderstorm season is just around the corner anyway. And in these parts, (IOWA in general) that rarely lets ya down. :)

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7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Unless tornadoes are your thing. We excel at squall line production however. :)

I did notice last summer how Nebraska (and the other plains states) were home for the big round supercells, but that those morph into "MCS" lines by about the time they reach Central IA and points east :).

Still pretty cool thunderstorms though.

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Truly cannot get a better track for the twin cities than what the 12z GFS is printing out right now. Surface low goes from southwest Iowa to La Crosse where it briefly spins its wheels a bit before pulling away. And it results in about 18 inches verbatim. Lock it in.

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