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Feb 24-25th Severe Weather


Anti tornado

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ECMWF and GFS are in general agreement with time, place, and strength of a strong(ish) low during the Feb 24-25th timeframe. 12z GFS showed a 992 low over SW Minnesota... 12z ECMWF had a 983 low over NE Nebraska. 0z GFS shifted more towards the ECMWF with a 985 low over SE Nebraska. 

The 3 day trend for the GFS has been to strength the system. 

 

Thoughts?

 

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Your name is anti-tornado and you're making a thread about severe weather?  lol

8-9 days out, so that's a very long time for things to change, but it appears like our moisture source will be ready to go in advance of whatever ejects out... i.e. a lack of a Gulf scouring cold front in the days prior.  

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Your name is anti-tornado and you're making a thread about severe weather?  lol

8-9 days out, so that's a very long time for things to change, but it appears like our moisture source will be ready to go in advance of whatever ejects out... i.e. a lack of a Gulf scouring cold front in the days prior.  

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

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41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

12z GFS shows poorer moisture return. Take it the cutoff off the SE coast will scour moisture?  

 

12z vs 0z GFS

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55 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

Maybe semantics but I wouldn't call it a real scouring.  Certainly don't have a deep arctic plunge right before.  That cutoff doesn't help as far as getting 100% optimal moisture return but there's still 55-60 degree dews hanging around OK/AR in advance of the system of interest.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe semantics but I wouldn't call it a real scouring.  Certainly don't have a deep arctic plunge right before.  That cutoff doesn't help as far as getting 100% optimal moisture return but there's still 55-60 degree dews hanging around OK/AR in advance of the system of interest.

If the low wasn't there, you could add 10 degrees to those dew points, 65-70 dews would make this a huge event.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd be calling my momma if we had dews like that lol

I mean for OK/AR, though without the Gulf getting crushed, I could see low to mid 60s getting up here because of a long duration return flow. Either way we are talking fantasy as the cutoff screws that potential.

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20 hours ago, Stebo said:

I mean for OK/AR, though without the Gulf getting crushed, I could see low to mid 60s getting up here because of a long duration return flow. Either way we are talking fantasy as the cutoff screws that potential.

Another thing is the fairly quick occlusion currently being depicted.  Northward moisture advection would take a hit with that.  Maybe we could get away with some semblance of a cutoff if it doesn't linger too long but it would be hard to overcome both of those.

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Yeah, if this thing slows down and maintains intensity in subsequent model runs things will get really interesting in parts of the Midwest.

With the strong omega block depicted via water vapor imagery I don' think a quicker solution is in the cards.  A Cutter is likely into the western great lakes.  Some where from the Dakotas to Eastern MN, Western WI  could see a notable snowfall event.  Notice I am not saying historical yet......  Eastern MN and western MN is a part of this sub forum, if we get what i think is possible with the track, the south eastern sub forum could be well under the gun for severe. 

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Some favorable steps on the GFS since yesterday's 12z run.  The southern cutoff is less impressive and the main system is being handled a bit differently, with a delayed occlusion process.  Still needs some work and whether the trend continues or reverses remains to be seen.

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17 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's just crazy that we have a severe weather thread 7 days out in February and none for even a snow event. 

The pacific killed everyone's winter outside the lake belt. Virtually nobody outside of Maine has really picked up anything significant. 

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some favorable steps on the GFS since yesterday's 12z run.  The southern cutoff is less impressive and the main system is being handled a bit differently, with a delayed occlusion process.  Still needs some work and whether the trend continues or reverses remains to be seen.

I noticed with the cutoff that a good portion of the energy is picked up with the trough and lifted north, still there is some that ends up in a cutoff but it isn't as large or strong and weakens as it moves toward Florida, that is a very positive change.

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This is a heck of a lot of mid level cooling here shown by the 00z GFS if it were to verify. Would be possible to pull enough instability out of upper 50s dewpoints for a fairly substantial threat with this, but this is 156 hrs out and there is a lot with that slow-moving southern closed low/cutoff that needs to be resolved before looking at anything further really. Obviously if that scours out the moisture as other posters have highlighted above, this thing is dead in the water before it even gets to short range. Degree of occlusion of this system itself as it rolls out beyond the Continental Divide will also play a big role.

500th.conus.png

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12 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This is a heck of a lot of mid level cooling here shown by the 00z GFS if it were to verify. Would be possible to pull enough instability out of upper 50s dewpoints for a fairly substantial threat with this, but this is 156 hrs out and there is a lot with that slow-moving southern closed low/cutoff that needs to be resolved before looking at anything further really. Obviously if that scours out the moisture as other posters have highlighted above, this thing is dead in the water before it even gets to short range. Degree of occlusion of this system itself as it rolls out beyond the Continental Divide will also play a big role.

500th.conus.png

GFS has some fairly healthy mid level lapse rates (>7 C/km), which would help the CAPE profiles.  

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

12Z GFS got the warm sector further north, 60s further into Michigan, something to watch.

Something that I noticed last night...the last dozen or so runs have a large spread in terms of placement with low. Think models are struggling 

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