Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Day 67, here we are. Would've been unthinkable a couple months ago, especially after the quick start in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 If ORD were to receive just 0.3" from the backside snow on Saturday, it would be the biggest snow since December 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: Day 67, here we are. Would've been unthinkable a couple months ago, especially after the quick start in December. 57 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If ORD were to receive just 0.3" from the backside snow on Saturday, it would be the biggest snow since December 18. These stats are unreal. Would be hard pressed to find anyone who thought the late December pattern change would bring anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: These stats are unreal. Would be hard pressed to find anyone who thought the late December pattern change would bring anything like this. As impressive as the 1" streak is, the streak without even a half inch that I posted about is even more crazy. Shows how hard it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: If ORD were to receive just 0.3" from the backside snow on Saturday, it would be the biggest snow since December 18. WOW, that's just nuts. I thought MLI was bad (with only 1.7" total since Dec 17th, and 76% of that fell on Feb 8) but that's even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 Not this way. Not this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I'd laugh if it happened that way to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 34 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'd laugh if it happened that way to be honest. Streak might end but I'm sort of in see it to believe it mode, especially with how borderline it looks. One thing that helps snow sticking prospects is that temps should be falling into the 20s during the snow instead of flatlining at/above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Streak might end but I'm sort of in see it to believe it mode, especially with how borderline it looks. One thing that helps snow sticking prospects is that temps should be falling into the 20s during the snow instead of flatlining at/above freezing. Yeah if that happens all bets are off and it will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah if that happens all bets are off and it will fall. This is probably the last shot at the streak this month. Can't totally overlook the system progged for late weekend/early next week, but it doesn't look like that will really do anything. A lot on the line the next few days... other than the streak, need less than 1.9" for the least snowy January-February. Less than 1" the remainder of the month makes it the first time with back to back sub 1" months in met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Oh my gosh. Toledo's streak of <1" goes from Dec 11th to present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, Chinook said: Oh my gosh. Toledo's streak of <1" goes from Dec 11th to present. December 13th here. And it'll continue through March 3rd at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Oh my gosh. Toledo's streak of <1" goes from Dec 11th to present. Wow. That's insane. Looks like TOL has accumulated 6" since Dec 12 but never an inch in one day. DTW has had 8 days of 1"+ since Dec 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Looking like chicago could see an inch of snow tomorrow? If it's close the observer will have lots of pressure on them. If it would be either side of an inch, the reading will be highly scrutinized. Better off hoping it's safely below or safely above an inch. In 2013-14 when DTW had alresdy smashed dozens of records, a March 12 snowstorm initially had potential to drop 8-10" which could have sealed the record. The media was all over it, and that ended up being the ONE storm that winter that underperformed at 6.6". As the snow melted in late March the effects of the winter were brutally seen, dead animals in the woods, ornamental trees dead, but detroit was still 1.9" away from the seasonal record. Then an April 15th snowfall was forecast to drop 1-3". Anything around 2" would have been highly scrutinized no matter which way it went, so I remember thinking let's either over or underperform so there's no doubt. Like everything else (aside March 12) that winter, it easily over performed with 3.2", and a new all time record was set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Looking like chicago could see an inch of snow tomorrow? If it's close the observer will have lots of pressure on them. If it would be either side of an inch, the reading will be highly scrutinized. Better off hoping it's safely below or safely above an inch. In 2013-14 when DTW had alresdy smashed dozens of records, a March 12 snowstorm initially had potential to drop 8-10" which could have sealed the record. The media was all over it, and that ended up being the ONE storm that winter that underperformed at 6.6". As the snow melted in late March the effects of the winter were brutally seen, dead animals in the woods, ornamental trees dead, but detroit was still 1.9" away from the seasonal record. Then an April 15th snowfall was forecast to drop 1-3". Anything around 2" would have been highly scrutinized no matter which way it went, so I remember thinking let's either over or underperform so there's no doubt. Like everything else (aside March 12) that winter, it easily over performed with 3.2", and a new all time record was set. I don't think ORD will make it. Better chance for an inch looks to be just north closer to the WI border. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Sign of the times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Now the question becomes, does Chicago run the table and end up blanking March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 29 minutes ago, Stebo said: Now the question becomes, does Chicago run the table and end up blanking March/April. I will be rolling out more stats in the next day or two, assuming something unexpected doesn't happen overnight. As far as your question, the early March period looks like it will feature predominantly northwest flow with potential smaller systems moving through the Lakes at times. If that pattern breaks down when I expect it to, then there may only be a 10-15 day window or so coming up to try to break the streak before the pattern becomes warmer. By then, climo starts becoming more unfavorable and we may be home free so to speak, at least through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I really thought it would be real close for chicago, definitely wasn't expecting only a trace. I give a shutout in march/April here in detroit about a 1% chance of happening, but at this point, I just don't get it with chicago. Maybe ma nature truly is hell bent on making them wait til November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Though March is more of a transition time and not a meteorological winter month, it acts like winter a fair amount of the time and about 2/3 of it is made up by astronomical winter. Although winter is usually in decline, I feel like it is wintry enough to be meaningful when talking about streaks. With that being said, here are the longest sub 1" streaks when including March. Dec 25, 1921 - Mar 30, 1922 (96 days) Jan 15, 1910 - Mar 31, 1910 (76 days) Jan 19, 1927 - Mar 31, 1927 (72 days) Today is day 70 of the current streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Snow coming to an end shortly, so ORD will finish with a T. Next shot looks to be with that system the first 1-2 days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Snow coming to an end shortly, so ORD will finish with a T. Next shot looks to be with that system the first 1-2 days of March. Assuming nothing measurable, this February would join 1987 and 1998 as the only ones without measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Measurable snows at ORD since the 1" streak began: 12/18/2016: 0.5" 1/9/2017: 0.2" 1/12/2017: 0.2" 1/29/2017: 0.1" 1/30/2017: 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Measurable snows at ORD since the 1" streak began: 12/18/2016: 0.5" 1/9/2017: 0.2" 1/12/2017: 0.2" 1/29/2017: 0.1" 1/30/2017: 0.1" That really is just insane. No other way to cut the cake. Amazing stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Chambana said: That really is just insane. No other way to cut the cake. Amazing stretch. The DJF part of the streak will end up beating the previous DJF record by 7 days. You need a horrible pattern to even have a chance of something like this, but it also takes a lot of bad luck. That February 8 storm comes 50 miles farther north, and we aren't talking about this anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Where would this rank as least snowy winters for chicago if nothing else fell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Where would this rank as least snowy winters for chicago if nothing else fell? By that I assume you mean the whole thing and not just DJF. It would be 7th worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 58 minutes ago, Hoosier said: By that I assume you mean the whole thing and not just DJF. It would be 7th worst. Yes I meant the entire snow season. As epic as this drought has been for chicago, in the record books it will always look like there's been 6 worse ones lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Yes I meant the entire snow season. As epic as this drought has been for chicago, in the record books it will always look like there's been 6 worse ones lol. 18.3" right now for the season is 1.5" behind where 2011-12 finished. Those 6 least snowy winters all occurred in the 1940s and earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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