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Model Mayhem V

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I typically don't Chime in much,  mainly because I just don't simply have the time to post before others have already deciphered the data in a manner to which I agree.   If I disagree adamantly,  like the analysis of Patricia's landfall intensity, I feel inclined to offer my own best educated guess based on my own experience in the field.

All that being said,  it's important to realize the main reason todays forecasters rely so heavily on the models is that this technology far exceeds any humans capability to process all the data in any comparable manner.  Why in the world would any old-school forecaster even attempt to do so?  To me, that would be more ego-driven and foolhardy.

The science has advanced so much in the past 20-25 years, not only the advances in computer modeling, but also a greater understanding of the various teleconnections involved, that it's imperative that the old-school/long-time forecasters have had to grow with the science.  As such,  they/we appreciate these advances, and in many respects, it has become more of a model analysis endeavor.  But, that doesn't take away from the methods to to which forecasters today and yesteryear developed their respective forecasts.   Simply put,  computer modeling has taken much of the time out of hand-drawn mapping and crunches the data in a way that forecasters of prior generations could only dream about.

It's a complete misunderstanding for one to imply too broadly that operational forecasting has evolved into model interpretation, and not appreciating the same general operational methods are still used to decipher the atmosphere (i.e. such as recognizing where the models are not initialized correctly or where it's evolution isn't meteorogically sound).  

I will add that meteorology will always remain an inexact science for the atmosphere is far too vast and complex.  With that in mind,  it's truly amazing how far medium and long-range forecasting has come.  This increase in relative forecast accuracy is directly attributable to the advancement of computer modeling.

Lastly, any responsible meteorologist is mindful of the effect their forecasts have on the general public.  Consequently, they should always take a measured and conservative approach.    

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Lol. Pay up dude.

Nothing in this world is free. Not even the pos "forecasts" disseminated by weather communicators (on-camera "meteorologists") for the msm are free. They are cheap though--to you as the consumer--and that's why they suck.

 

who should i make the check out to? 

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

sign me up for the 18z GFS....Pretty snowy run though 168 hrs from the northern mid atlantic up through all of SNE

Yea, thats one way to get above normal wrt snowfall for us. A good belly to belly wknd takes my winter grade up 5 pts to an 80. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

492dm thickness on the euro next Saturday. I don't need another weekend ruined by brutal cold again...no thanks.

 

Look on the bright side. Maybe it killed ticks.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look on the bright side. Maybe it killed ticks.

My chickens can kill the ticks and convert their parasitic wretchedness into nice yolks.

I don't have much to add beyond what everyone else has said, but it definitely looks active over the next couple of weeks. It's probably not a bad thing to be progged safely into the cold side of the gradient at this point.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My chickens can kill the ticks and convert their parasitic wretchedness into nice yolks.

I don't have much to add beyond what everyone else has said, but it definitely looks active over the next couple of weeks. It's probably not a bad thing to be progged safely into the cold side of the gradient at this point.

If you're ever in need to let them "spread  their wings" so to speak, they'd have a party on my parents lawn.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Um... there were Tors and I never forecast 2012. That's horse coc k

Last severe fail and oh yes you did we bump if necessary 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

492dm thickness on the euro next Saturday. I don't need another weekend ruined by brutal cold again...no thanks.

 

If a foot of snow preceded it you might break all time March low

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS is even further north with the clipper than 12z. Would be mostly wet for anyone south of NNE.

Big differences at h5 between 12z EPS @ 120 hr and 18z GEFS @ 114 hr.  Euro much colder and no clipper.  I'll go with a blend of the two, which to me means some snow for SNE and a low further south than what the GEFS is showing.  The GFS and GEFS have been all over the place lately.

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS is even further north with the clipper than 12z. Would be mostly wet for anyone south of NNE.

Disagree about that interpretation.  Here are the individual members snow outputs, although not exactly they do show the mean is farther south than you indicate on March 12th

KORH_2017030518_gefs_snow_384.png

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Disagree about that interpretation.  Here are the individual members snow outputs, although not exactly they do show the mean is farther south than you indicate on March 12th

KORH_2017030518_gefs_snow_384.png

e7 looks nice, lol.

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Disagree about that interpretation.  Here are the individual members snow outputs, although not exactly they do show the mean is farther south than you indicate on March 12th

KORH_2017030518_gefs_snow_384.png

You can read the model output that's fine. But that track/setup would be mostly wet; even for ORH. You get front end snow to RA at ORH. Enjoy. 

We have two BN days and suddenly suppression is the consensus when this hasn't happened all season. Wake up. It's going to be 60 on Tues into Wed, and the UL synoptic pattern on Friday, is completely different than what we experienced this wknd.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

You can read the model output that's fine. But that track/setup would be mostly wet; even for ORH. You get front end snow to RA at ORH. Enjoy. 

I really don't see it but until the wave breaks it means nothing anyways. GEFS and EPS look the best they have since February blitz. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I really don't see it but until the wave breaks it means nothing anyways. GEFS and EPS look the best they have since February blitz. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

I won't disagree here. Just speaking with regard to the clipper-- -the speed and orientation of the flow--and how this relates to the cutter bomb and the following sw--is too fast and flat for suppression. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I won't disagree here. Just speaking with regard to the clipper-- -the speed of the flow--and how this relates to the cutter bomb and the following sw--is too fast for suppression. 

Doesn't look like a SWFE primarily NNE situation to me  as you stated previously. That's a lot of low level cold air indicated 

gefs_z500a_exnamer_21.png

gefs_t850a_exnamer_21.png

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That 18z run would be painful lol.

Suppression depression is Ginxy's gold.

Though given the seasonal trend definitely better to have the gradient south at this point and for the next several days.  Seems like it's been easier to get north trends than south trends in a general seasonal stand point. 

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Lol. Pay up dude.

Nothing in this world is free. Not even the pos "forecasts" disseminated by weather communicators (on-camera "meteorologists") for the msm are free. They are cheap though--to you as the consumer--and that's why they suck.

 

Pretty much... we're all a bunch of idiots.:axe:

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 18z run would be painful lol.

Suppression depression is Ginxy's gold.

Though given the seasonal trend definitely better to have the gradient south at this point and for the next several days.  Seems like it's been easier to get north trends than south trends in a general seasonal stand point. 

SE ridge has been pretty dominant this winter. So pretty typical in winters like that the north trend dominates. 

That said, Euro has been kicking the GFS' butt recently. It compressed the last clipper while GFS kept showing a hit even up to about 60 hours out and then it finally submitted to Euro...so we will see what happens in the next few runs when the goal posts narrow as get into that 72-84 hour range. 

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty much... we're all a bunch of idiots.:axe:

I have lurked and posted here only for ob's and sports over the past but to hear that BS bothers me. This sight has the best weather info you can get if you listen to the right people. Even the wishcasters know more than me. It is up to people like Ryan , Scooter, Will etc. Tippy? to tell the news be it a cold rain or a swampy ass or whatever you have its weather! All to realize they know their ****. And hope we get a few more flakes! Rant done.

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